Contenu du sommaire : Le Dollar

Are the essential factors which account for the disequilibrium between the dollar area and the rest of the world to be found in the economy of the country which shows surplus or in those which show deficit Contra dictory answers demonstrate that those who advocate deflationary measures in deficit countries as remedy for external disequilibrium assume that balance of payment reactions are symetrical whereas those who believe in long term dollar shortage attribute the cause to one or several fundamental asymetrie reactions The symetrie thesis is supported by logic but detailed analysis will show numerous asymetrie possibilities Several are worth looking into after close examination it will be seen that if the explanation of disequi librum through asymetrie behaviour is valid its causes are to be attributed to phenomena which are more fundamental than forces which regulate the balance of payments such as income fluctuations income elasticities the geographical distribution of innovations The real causes of asymetry must be sought in the structural differences between one economy and another rather than in the absence of parallelism between balance of payments reactions to change in prices

Can an increase in American private investment abroad be substitue for public loans so as to obtain satisfactory and lasting balance of payment re-equilibrium For direct investments by American corporations abroad the prospects loolk more favourable than for portfolio investments Direct investments raise no insuperable problems of outlet and risk for American capital The financing of current balance of payment dollar deficits by this method would seem therefore to be practicable It is however doubtful whether this sort of capital movement can be such as to create the conditions necessary for satisfactory re-equilibrium of current balances themselves in longer period To produce such an effect foreign investments must first help to eradicate the causes of the deficit of the borrowing country vis-a-vis the lending country secondly this re-equilibrium must not be acquired to the detriment of third country or at the price of new breach in multilateralism It is to be feared that such conditions are not in fact fulfilled Other procedures for private investment g. through international agencies borrowing on the capital markets must be devised

The end of British investment and the growth of trade with the United States have weakened the position of the pound and considerably streng thened that of the dollar The latter influence is felt particularly in the mining countries which have profited by North American capital and some what less in the tropical countries Which export mainly to the United States Latin American countries the monetary reserves essential to endow external payments with the full required elasticity This scarcity which had decreased at the end of World War II has become acute again in the last few years Internal inflation increasing equipment needs the insuf ficiency of foreign investment all contribute to unbalance the accounts and weaken the currencies Closer international cooperation would permit to improve this situation Besides the recovery of internal finance policy seeking to strengthen the position of Latin American currencies ought to include the quest of greater Latin American monetary solidarity and steps for developing both foreign investments and trade With Europe

The pound sterling as an inter-regional medium of exchange Trans formations the economic structure of the sterling area modifications of economic complementarities fwithin the sterling area Necessary adjust ments in the British Economy Evolution of the axis of trade of the sterling area Transformations in the structure of the balance of paiments of the sterling area Direction and structure of sterling area trade Balance of trade and balance of payments

In addition to administering code of fair financial practices among its 5o member countries the International Monetary Fund the charter of which was drawn up at Bretton Woods in 1944 also promotes international nnancial cooperation in various other ways It constitutes forum for con tinuous consultation among its members on financial and economic problems it makes recommendations to its members on both technical and policy questions it acts as center for the assembly standardization and publi cation of information and It provides secondary line of reserves Although drawings on the resources have not been as large as some members fwould have Hiked they have been substantial Thus far 24 countries have drawn on the Fund number of these on more than one occasion for total of more than billion Furthermore large amount of resources the gold and convertible currency holdings are now about 3.3 billions remains available to assist members in for example broad move totward convertibility The Fund has indicated in recent decisions its prepa redness to play major role in any such development

The circumstances leading up to the establishment of the E.P are summarised and the essential features of its mechanism are examined one by one multilateral compensations automatic grants of credits and gold settlements allowing the regulation of temporary fluctuations in the balanec of payments of the Western European countries and tlieir associated mone tary areas The analysis brings out the advantages of this multilateral system which has enabled the European countries despite the otw level of their currency reserves to develop their visible and invisible trade with each other on non-discriminatory basis At the present moment the member countries of O.E.E.G are examining the ways in Iwhich the E.P system might be improved on the occasion of its prolongation for further financial year at the same time return to convertibility of certain European currencies is envisaged The present analysis clarifies the origins of the operating difficulties of the Union and of the criticisms Which are levelled at it