Contenu du sommaire : Asie : Les enjeux d'une croissance élevée

Export-led strategies in Latin America and East Asia: Growth as a product- and institution-specific phenomenon. This paper investigates the growth implications of the old controversy of whether there is a difference for developing countries between exporting potato-chips and micro-chips. It concludes that the experience of Latin America and East Asia since 1980 (i.e., during the period of "globalisation") clearly shows that growth is indeed a product- and institution-specific phenomenon.

The indián economy and globalization: another "workshop to the world"? This article attempts to answer two questions. The first concerns the effects of reforms in the 1990s on growth as well as distribution of income. The second focuses on the characteristics of an opening to the outside world unaccompanied by any marked change in international specialization except with regard to services. Unlike China, India has not become an export platform. China and India share many similar problems (government deficits, agriculture), but the two countries seem to be choosing different paths towards development.

From aid to economic cooperation: towards a reappraisal of Japanese policy. The purpose of this paper is to re-examine Japanese aid policy over the long term and to draw some lessons for other donor countries on its effectiveness. The policy offers a new perspective on aid and development, clearly different from that in the West. An analysis of the logic and structure of Japanese aid management shows the potential benefits of greater economic rationalization of aid programs and partnerships between the public and private sectors. Foreign aid seems to be more effective when it falls within broader program of economic co-operation generating exchanges and investments.

Mechanisms for adjusting supply to the needs of clients of a microfinance institution in a quasi-monopolistic situation. This article attempts to analyze, using empirical data gathered in a rural Mexican context, the borrowing strategies of clients of a microfinance institution (MFI) in various instances of loan renewal based on progressive lending. We show that clients'borrowing strategies differ from mfi progressive lending rules based on length of membership. Faced with an undifferentiated offer from an institution in a quasi-monopolistic situation, borrowers adopt individual and collective strategies to make the offer fit their differentiated needs.

Korea's Post-Crisis Banking Crisis. This paper develops the argument that a foreign-bank-led wave of bank mergers and acquisitions will not yield universally higher welfare levels. Korea's banking crisis is not the result of the inefficiency or rent-seeking of its intermediaries, but of a regional structural financial crisis in East Asia after 1990. Most bank mergers and other structural changes in banking in Korea in recent years have resulted in large and risky public-sector debts, with gains taken primarily by overseas private-equity funds. Further, the impact of these structural shifts on lower-income households and small businesses may take Korea further toward a future of economic inequality and social bifurcation.

Chinese Finance after the WTO. The paper demonstrates the continuing ability of the Chinese state to effectively provide a direction to its financial sector by foreclosing its speculatory options, largely with capital account controls and strict regulatory provisions. China's entry to the WTO may not tilt the balance in terms of a greater sphere for speculation as long as China maintains its vigil over the financial sector. Success of China's state capitalism in gearing finance to industry, in avoiding the risk hazards of footloose mobile capital and, above all, in entering the global market at its own terms should not, however, lead us to forget its policy failures to address issues of internal distribution, especially with rising inequalities and discontent affecting large sections of people.

Globalisation, instability and economic insecurity. This paper documents and analyses the volatility of economic growth in rich and poor countries. It concludes that whereas volatility has declined almost universally in advanced countries, the picture is more mixed for developing countries. The paper then concentrates on the case of India, where gdp volatility has declined over the past two decades. The evidence shows that the move away from agriculture has stabilised the economy. Increased financial depth and more favourable developments in terms of trade have had a similar effect. Finally, the paper discusses the relationship between economic instability and insecurity at a general level.

The Crisis in India's countryside. The paper points at the sharp drop in levels of living for the rural poor and the stagnation in agriculture which provides the wherewithal for their survival. Stagnation in agriculture and the rising poverty level in India today are matched by a booming service sector and moderate to low growth in industry in the global economy which should not trivialize the costs paid by the poor in the countryside in the process.

Amartya Sen: a new era for development? A response to Alexandre Bertin. This article reviews some of the ambiguities to be found in that of A. Bertin published last year in the Revue Tiers Monde (n° 182) on the topic of Sen's capacity approach. That approach has in fact remained virtually the same since the early 1980s, and there was no break in 1987. This is followed by an outline of the similarities between Sen's concepts and those of the undp and the World Bank. Lastly, the article looks at the effects of the capacity approach on concrete analysis: neither Sen nor the international organizations apply this theoretical framework in their empirical studies.