Natural gas in the world,
by Nicole Fleury.
This article presents an overview of the natural gas situation in the world since the beginning of the seventies.
The gas situation is compared with that of oil when comparison axe seemed appropriate.
This is the case for some specific indicators such as the geographical distribution of the resources.
Eastern Europe's preeminent role with regard to gas resources is compare with the paucity of its oil resources.
The Middle East holds first place for oil resources and second place for gas resources.
The numbers underline the lack of gas resources in western countries which are the greatest consumer in the world.
Their consumption had been going down quite quickly since 1979 The decline was very sharp in the United States which was still the largest consumer in the world in 1983 just before the Ussr, the european consumption on the contrary was growing. The price factor is mentioned without being full developed. The control of internal prices in Usa, together with the timing of the increase which it implied, had in particular a fundamental role in the fall of consumption. The recent developments in the spot market for gas could reverse the situation in the future.
Trends in gas production, taking account its geographic distribution, remain very close to trends in consumption. This underlines however the development of a world trade in gas, in particular for pipelines, a less costly means of transport. The growth of european imports, starting with the Ussr is the most pertinent example.
Beginning with these elements, an outline of evolution of the future gas market to the end of the century can be discerned. The three most important points are:
the increasing western european dépendance on the countries of eastern europe who will have more than 40% of world gas production, the continuing decline of the north amencan share in world gas production notwithstanding the progress achieved in Canada, the improvement of the production in Latin America and in Africa, these regions reinforcing their efforts for a better utilization of associated gas.
This global trend conceals in the industrialised countries a different sectoral distribution underlining,
the stability of gas utilization in the residential and services sector, where there is competition from electricity, the sharp decline of gas utilization in the electric sector, an increasing penetration in the industrial sector. These trends will be heavily dependent on the prices of competing energy sources, -in particular petroleum products and electricity.
General pension scheme: retrospective evolution and outlook for 1986, by Jean-Pierre Cendron. After a brief retrospective analysis of the general state pension scheme the article goes on to describe the method used for forecasting. The number of pensioners is calculated in most cases on the basis of the age pyramid with its constantly renewed base. Average allowance figures are updated annually taking into account the base salary levels of newly retired pensioners. These two new figures combine to give the growth rate of the different allowances provided to the elderly. The survey shows how, after a rapid growth phase between 1 970 and 1978, followed by a slowdown from 1979 to 1983, expenditure on the elderly has re-entered a rapid growth phase under the double influence of the earlier retirement age and the arrival of a new population "bulge" group.
