Contenu du sommaire : Géopolitique de l'énergie

The fantasy of oil in war-torn countries: a geopolitical analysis
A highly symbolic resource, oil is often seen as a curse and a source of armed conflicts. It is of course a reason for competition and a strategic asset to conduct a war. But its role should not obscure other factors of armed conflicts. From various examples in Africa, Asia and Latin America, this article thus shows how the fantasy of oil can stimulate the imagination and confuse the geopolitical analysis of war, especially in countries without oil.

The Atlantic basin: a new Africa-Americas oil and gas geopolitical arena.
The Atlantic Ocean (North and Latin America, Africa and Europe) is bordered by states experiencing a significant change in their relationships regarding hydrocarbons. The rapid development of shale oil and gas in USA allows the country more and more independence from African states in the gulf of Guinea. Some of these producing countries like Nigeria are worried that the special political and security ties with America will turn into a mere trade relationship. Africa's excess oil and gas capacity, no longer sold to USA, is bought by Latin America and Europe (alongside countries such as India). Oil and gas transactions are creating new networks and fresh ties between countries from these zones that previously had to do with each other. From a geological perspective, the Atlantic Ocean is bordered by coastal countries with multiple similarities, and which we will refer to as the Atlantic basin. Millions of years back, they formed one single continent. Oil companies, bearing this geological similarity in mind and profiting from better technology, apply for oil blocks on one side of the Atlantic basin whenever a discovery is made on the opposite side. New relationships are thus flourishing between Latin-American and African states. New players, competing to control new zones, gives rise to a fresh geopolitical situation that we are going to examine in this article.

European Union-Russia oil and gas relationship and the Chinese prospect. Geopolitics before trade
The geopolitical conflict around Ukraine, risks and threats about Russia's gas exports toward Europe and the new Russian-Chinese gas contract (Shanghai, 20 may 2014) draw attention to the triangular relationship between Russia, Europe and China. Initially, EU's authorities wanted to make apolitical the energy issue but Russia's rulers have a strategic and geopolitical approach of it. Due to this interdepency, Vladimir Putin wants to open new markets in Asia in order to gain room for maneuver in Europe. If China's diplomacy is mainly determined by the energy needs of its economy, Moscow gives priority to power and its stakes.

European energy as a factor for integration and disintegration: the 25 years since the end of the Cold War reconsidered Energy relations are capable of stabilizing as well as destabilizing relations between countries. There is no better place than the unifying Europe to demonstrate this in all its complexity. Twenty five years after the collapse of the Berlin wall energy seems even more and more relevant not only in East West relations, but also among EU member states. The author looks into the three dimensions determining energy relations: gas and electricity physical links; regulatory integration, as well as policy choices and vision. She shows firstly that the physical gas link has been first expanded between EU and Russia, and then, in 2014, lost its very basis: the trust never put into question since the 1970s. As for electricity links she insists on the East-West geopolitical shift of the new EU member states; a shift which left various countries in a kind of a no men's land in between, exposed to the question whether this space could gain some positive identity, as a bridge between East and West. This is very much today perceived as an illusion, and the quest for certainty through clear association prevails. As for physical links the last 25 years have been marked by regulatory disintegration, reintegration and disorientation. The same countries ‘in between' on physical links tend to be disoriented on regulation too. And finally, as for the policy choices and vision, a new frontline has emerged in Europe, opposing les anciens et les modernes, symbolized by the opposite choices of France and Germany. But such opposition is far from being definite, and there is a perspective for the Franco-German couple to become the European driving force again, over time. In his summary the authors formulates five theses summarizing the findings and a recommendation for a cooperative approach on energy in Europe.

From Caspian to Turkey: the southern European gas corridor's issues
With the growth of global energy demand and the raise of conflicts for the control of energy ressources and supply routes, energy security is becoming a major issue for the European Union, but also for suppliers and transit countries. The recent crisis in Ukraine highlights the role of gas as a strategic weapon in the Russian external policy and reinforces the need of the European countries to diversify energy sources and supply routes. The southern European gas corridor, which carries hydrocarbons of the Caspian region to Europe through Turkey, is as a key project of E.U. and U.S. strategy to ensure the energy security of Europe. However, with the current instability in the Middle East and the difficulty to set-up an agreement in the Iranian nuclear negotiations, the issue of the ability of the southern gas corridor to be supplied with enough amount of resources remains hypothetical. In this respect, this approach analyses the deep interactions between energy issues, territorial security, political aims and economic interests.

The Balkans in search of a new breath: South-east Europe revealed by the energy stakes
In the coming years, the fact that Western Europe has no choice but to equip itself with new ways of energy supply will confer a strategic place on the Balkans. The countries concerned by the projects promoted within the framework of the « southern corridor » intend to take advantage of this transit role to boost economies hardly affected by the financial crisis, and lighten their energy dependence, while waiting to develop their own potential, still under-exploited, in particular in the renewable energies field. But the Balkans States intend also to seize this opportunity to raise their weight on the international scene and to assert their regional supremacy. Those political stakes drive most of them to settle (or minimize) some bilateral issues with their neighbors. It also drives them to broaden their partnerships beyond the European continent in order to free themselves from relations more and more tense between Russia and the European Union.

The geopolitics of Indian energy
In her quest of power, India should address the challenge of energy security. More and more dependent of oil, gas, coal and uranium imports, the country has to address issues of prices, as well as issues of procurement, often in a challenging context in the near abroad and in the extended neighborhood. The geopolitics of Indian energy is henceforth linked both to New Delhi's economic diplomacy and to the « grand strategy » of an emerging country in need of consolidation of its power base. Through such a process, the quest to energy security clearly illustrates the new geometries of the global order, where competition and cooperation are the rule of the game between unequal, but inescapable actors.

Israel – Palestine: the geopolitics of electricity
The electricity sector in the Middle-East is rarely studied, however this energy has a key role in the rivalry between Israelis and Palestinians. Indeed, the Hebrew State uses it as a tool of conquest and control in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, by giving an access to commodities to Jewish settlers. Moreover, Palestinians are strongly dependent on electricity produced by Israeli power plants, which enables Israel to pressure on the Palestinians. Yet the Palestinian electricity dependence is a critical issue for Israel's security as the Hamas, whose leadership is at stake in the region, knows how to take advantage of the situation.

From the lost land of Blayais to the Emirate of Saint-Vulbas: the territories of dependency to nuclear energy in FranceIn midst of energy transition, the reduction of the share of nuclear power in the French electricity mix announced by president François Hollande after his election in 2012 rises a transpartisan opposition both at the national and the local level. In France, the territories which host a nuclear power plant, municipalities and intercommunalities, enriched themselves quantitatively and qualitatively thanks to the financial benefits and to the strategies of EDF. Little by little, these improvements forged a relation of dependency between the infrastructures and their communities. Facing a potential vanishing of their resources, they structured themselves as actors of the conflict in a context of strong politicization of the NPP's workers, as today's debate surrounding the future of Fessenheim plants epitomizes it. The presence in France of territories of dependency to atomic power, which are politically active, slows down the partial deconstruction of the electronuclear park that a modification of the national energy mix would require.