Contenu du sommaire : Balkans : un nouveau Grand Jeu ?

The “European prospects” of Balkan countries have evolved little since 2003. The reasons for this include the incomplete stabilization of the region and real difficulties in bringing about the internal reforms required by the accession process, but also contradictions and nervousness on the part of European Union member states. Brussels needs to adopt a new, more gradual approach, one that is better aligned with the considerable “European expectations” still held by the majority of citizens in these countries.

Over the last decade, the long-standing relationships between the countries of the Western Balkans and China have been recast by a series of initiatives coming from Beijing. Some countries have fared better than others, particularly with regard to promises of Chinese investment. Future relationships will greatly depend on changes in the geopolitical environment: the expansion of the European Union and how China positions itself after the end of the war in Ukraine.

Serbia refused to support EU sanctions against Russia, and the ambivalence of its foreign policy has attracted increased attention from the international community. Yet this position is consistent with the country's ongoing foreign policy. Ambiguity is a deliberate strategy on the part of President Vučić, who aims not to be “trapped between East and West”: it allows him to consolidate his power at home while maximizing his room for maneuver internationally.

The Dayton Agreement gave Bosnia and Herzegovina complex institutions. This complexity is multiplied by ethno-nationalist forces, whose efforts converge to block any concrete political advances and benefit corruption and cronyism. Constitutional reforms are thus stymied, as are decisions about economic, social, and health policy. People are leaving the country in large numbers, and simultaneously the war in Ukraine means external influences are in the ascendant once again.

The dialogue between Serbia and Kosovo facilitated by Brussels shows no sign of creating a sustainable solution, beyond short-term adjustments. The policy of enlarging the European Union, lacking credibility and cohesion among EU member states, no longer functions as a catalyst in the resolution of crises. Europeans must now make new political choices within a new geopolitical framework, with Russia strengthening its grip on the “Serbian World.”

The war in Ukraine has brought to light the European Union's vulnerabilities. The gradual halt of Russian hydrocarbon imports is feeding the increase in energy prices, thereby creating difficulties for the most industrialized countries and fueling inflation. In a post-Covid-19 context where national debts are at a very high level, governments have reduced room to maneuver, while the discontent among populations hit by inflation is already benefiting populists.

The euro was created at the end of the 1980s as one of the three hubs of the international monetary order, but the impossibility of balancing the public accounts of member states later resulted in the eurozone crisis of 2012. The European Central Bank's quantitative easing policy has saved the single currency, including during the Covid-19 pandemic. However, the accumulation of national debts now reopens the question of the euro's long-term viability.

The issue of enlargement, until now a proud achievement of the European project, has entered a new international context. This requires the European Union to think beyond its usual legal and geographical limits, and take a truly geopolitical approach to its relationship with its surroundings. The European Political Community is part of the remodeling of the continent caused by the war in Ukraine.

A major social protest movement in Chile in 2019–2020 led to both the beginning of a process to replace the 1980 constitution and the coming to power of a new leftwing president, Gabriel Boric. The work of the constitutional convention lasted over a year and resulted in a text that was put to a referendum. The population overwhelmingly rejected the proposal, which aimed to implement major social advances and draw a line under the Pinochet era.

In 2022, Sri Lanka was rocked by an unprecedented economic and political crisis. In April, the country defaulted on its debt and found itself unable to borrow in international markets. Inflation hit the working classes hard and poverty increased. A section of the population then began protests to remove the Rajapaksa dynasty, which had been in power for two decades and was accused of negligence and corruption.

The creation of the 16+1 forum in 2012, bringing together China and Central and Eastern Europe, generated initial enthusiasm, followed by varying attitudes toward cooperation with Beijing on the part of the European countries concerned. The dominant attitude today is a certain disillusionment, manifested in a mediocre level of Chinese investment, reduced engagement with the forum, and growing distrust of China, whose supposed neutrality toward the war in Ukraine has failed to convince.

Almost thirty years after the genocide of the Tutsis in Rwanda, the entire region remains unstable. After Paul Kagame came to power, 1.5 million Hutus fled to the Democratic Republic of the Congo. For the Rwandan president, they represented an unacceptable threat. There then followed the First and Second Congo Wars, the consequences of which are still apparent. The recent attacks perpetrated by the M23 rebels are a new episode in this tragic story.