Contenu du sommaire : Réchauffement climatique et enjeux de défense Diplomates et militaires européens face à la guerre

The armed forces have seriously taken on board the challenges posed by climate change, with a number of lines of effort to be pursued in the long term. These concern not only operational matters but also the broad and varied infrastructure used by our units. The challenge of climate is both major and urgent, hence the effort already undertaken which will be continued and expanded.

Countries everywhere are having to take into account the complex strategic consequences of climate change—in matters concerning defence, too. The French Ministry of the armed forces developed a C limate and Defence Strategy in the spring of 2022: it applies a multi-level approach interwoven with international cooperation centred on NATO and the EU.

The Observatoire Défense & Climat (Defence and Climate Observatory) is working on the impacts of climate change in the vast field of challenges to defence. New threats are appearing which need to be understood now if they are not to lead to uncontrollable conflicts. This also requires a long-term commitment in order to adapt to these inescapable developments.

Global warming is not just the business of specialists. Quite the contrary: its impact will have geostrategic consequences. The issues of water and food supply, biological diversity and damage to the environment are all challenges which highlight the fragile geopolitical balances now obliging countries to take a stance for the common good of humanity.

Consideration of defence of the nation is as old as time: that of the environment is far more recent. Nevertheless, the acceleration of climate change and its effects on our environment are now compelling the two fields of concern to converge to ensure better protection in the future for our fellow citizens and, more broadly, for populations worldwide.

Climate change is having a growing impact upon security, which is compelling the European Union and NATO to study the issue more deeply and to incorporate it into their doctrines and plans of action. In turn this means that the armed forces have to take it into account and anticipate the necessary developments, and the problems that might arise in reconciling them with operational demands in a fragmented international context.

Rare earth elements have become crucial to ensuring energy security and yet these resources are massively under Chinese control. This dependence needs to be reduced but differences between European countries are not helping in establishing a common approach. Rare earths are set to remain a geopolitical weapon in the growing competition between countries.

Throughout the planning and conduct of an operation the division of responsibilities between military and diplomatic cells must be clearly defined in the search for true operational effectiveness. Artémis, in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, was a success because the synergy between civil and military personnel worked very well.

The European Union has been committed for a number of years to external military operations. During that time, military personnel, diplomats and member countries have had to learn to work together, acknowledging different cultures and working practices. Some operations have been well conducted, others less well. Progress is both necessary and essential if the EU is to become a true geopolitical power.

The war in Afghanistan showed the limits of European diplomacy, too dependent on Washington's positions and lacking in flexibility because of the rigidity of the decision-making process in Brussels. We have to accept risk and to face up to American supremacy by making ourselves more credible.

The Direction générale de l'armement (DGA, the French procurement authority) has adapted to take into account developments within the European community, though at the cost of questioning its own practices. Opening up to partners is now essential and will be a factor for success, on condition that relationships of trust and effective networks are established to support an openly-declared public policy.

It is essential, when faced with crisis or war, that a permanent dialogue be established between the political, military and diplomatic spheres. That requires each to have better knowledge of the others and the capability to work together. Such inter-ministerial communication works well in France and it is important that these practices be extended to the European institutions.

Russia has managed to manipulate cereal production for geopolitical ends, which have allowed it to weaken the position of the European Union by presenting the latter as responsible for global-level shortages. Agriculture has taken on a strategic aspect which has let Moscow strengthen its position, to the extent of indulging in massive disinformation campaigns.

Progozhin's betrayal and death tell us much about a state's capacity to act. Internal rifts, even if actively sought by the power, rarely lead to success, as witnessed by Wagner's rebellion. Conversely, we need to protect ourselves from countries like Russia that wield the weapon of disinformation.

Rivalry between empires has shaped European history. The collapse of some of them in 1918 did not lead to greater stability in Europe. In 1945, although the Third Reich was defeated the USSR established its grip well beyond its own borders. It had been thought in 1989 that the end of limited sovereignties was nigh. Yet since 2022, with its invasion of Ukraine, Moscow has sought to impose a new imperialist vision to benefit a Russia whose history has been rewritten for political purposes. For all that, failure is inevitable.

During the First World War the Imperial Japanese Navy played a part in protecting the Mediterranean from German and Austro-Hungarian threats by deploying a squadron to what was then the British island of Malta. This episode remains almost unknown, albeit marked by the remains of 58 Japanese soldiers in the island's British military cemetery.

The Yom Kippur War of just 50 years ago was a particularly unpleasant strategic surprise for Israel. In particular it allowed Egypt to recover its military pride, in turn leading to the later peace process with Tel Aviv. Relating that war to the current one in Gaza, a number of lessons remain pertinent—for our own forces, too.

The breakout of a new war between Hamas and Israel is having repercussions as far away as Latin America. It is revealing numerous splits between the countries that are supporting Tel Aviv after the terrorist attacks, and those that see the Palestinian organisation as a reflection of their own anti-imperialist struggles. The lack of unity also reveals much about the external influence strategies of the United States and, of course, of Russia and China.

The French series Sentinelles (Sentries), available on streaming channels, tries to tell the story of an aspect of Operation Barkhane. The production was aided by the Ministry of the armed forces and is of remarkable quality—a far cry from the hackneyed formats of Hollywood-style productions. Worth seeing whilst waiting for further series about our armed forces.