Contenu du sommaire : L'investissement

SUMMARY Population theory which was such au important ingredient of classical economics receives too little attention in current theory This is surprising since the volume of investment requirements receives great attention ami population increase is the most iir.portant element in these requirements By tlie use of fundamental dynam equation set out in arfU Dynamic Economics and elsewhere an attempt ia made to show tlie part played hy population increase in the dynamic equilibrium In the case of mature economies the population increase should make stagnation and recurrent recession less likely for two reasons First it raises the natu ral or maximum convenient rate of increase of output and thus makes it more likely that the economy can sustain warranted rate of increase without frequently going into downward spiral tilis warranted rate being that determined by Keynesian analysis as that which is barely sufficient to maintain progress under the profit incentive Secondly the increase in population tends to depress the warranted rate and thus contributes in this way also tovards making recurrent recessions less likely It is notable that the American stagnation of the thirties was accom panied by large fall in the rate of increase of population there and by sizeable fall in the rate of increase of working population Those who fear serious American recession in future may be encouraged by the fact th;it the prospective population increase will be considerably higher and more conducive to sustaining high employment

SUMMARY Pränt maximisât ion is tenu willi inauy meanings iiid the present article explores some implirations of two of these meanings maximisation of the present discounted value of expected future profits and maximisation ot the internal rate of retùm While in long -mn equilibriuiu the two prin ciples lead to the same result in disequilibrium they lead to different entre preneurial policies concerning current production investment and the repla cement of equipment and the policy of maximising the internal rate of return leads to more economical utilisation of capital Winch of the two maximisation principles is the more rational for the entrepreneur to follow depends on what factors limit the scale and rate of expansion of his operations The internal rate of return is the proper magnitude for him tu maximise if the availability of capital or borrowers or lenders risk is the limiting factor The welfare implications of the dioice of one or the other principle of profit maximisation constitute large subject of which only few selected aspects are discussed here Tentative conclusions are given concerning the influence of the maximising policy on a. the ratt of capital accumulation the allocation of investment funds among different industries and fields of activity and the degree of mechanisation of current investment

SUMMARY By gathering into coherent aud articulated outline the whole financial operations realized during same period the origins of monetary and financial resources the way by which they are collected and distri buted and their finale affectation to cover financing needs may be obviously showed The table shows especially the part of banking ind financial institutions and of Treasury in collecting and distributing these resources It is inserted in the plan of economic accounting of which It develops and explicita monetary and financial operations usually gathered into the account of operations in capital This table is an implement for further researches intended for improving the registration of rinta which serve as basis to economic and financial forecast

SUMMARY Economic accounting extended itself from research on national income and in om antithesis to monetary theories from which its reluctance to integrate financial phenomenous until recent date The paper tries to show that an economic accounting which does not involve an analysis of financial operation is seriously incomplete and that the models which follow from this fact eliminate chief aspect of reality As matter of fact realistic analysis shows on the one hand con sumptions and investments which should not occur for lack of credits and on the other hand savings which should not arise for lack of convenient investment opportunities It is necessary to say that classical opposition between savers and investors takes its full meaning only if it is considered rom the point of view of the couple lender borrower It is from the opponent couple banking borrower money holder that the independent wills of Keynesian scheme appear in their most dramatic appearance The second part is devoted to suggesting system of relations inte grating financial operations into the econometrie model now used by French economic accounting

SUMMARY Nec ssiiy promoting quickly economic expansion oi underdeveloped trrLuoi ir iilid countries appears among the main tasks of modern world Large amounts devoted today to use schemes of development tend at first to raisin; of local populations standard of life still in state close to misery as President Truman said Point IV) The work on line hii.-i uo common line with the former experiment Consequently it givrs rise to problems up till now unknown and thru- general solution would be bound to theory of structural evolution non yet stated The effort in progress proceeds from empirical decisions of which incomptabilities do not appear but lately However continual approa ches and successive cautious tentatives have permitted to define in better way conditions and difficulties of calculation from which choice and prio rities are subordinated in static order In dynamic order they have brought out the responsabilities regarding to orientation and control of structural evolution Development schemes remain more caniluguos than prospects of total solution harmoniously coordinated Research is developed into technical field But it still remains too much rudimentary for example regarding to reformulation of certain economic laws in the outline of under-develop- raent or the study of sociological obstacles liable to restraining moder nization of economy For lack of sufficiently general method the adapted decisions can lead to unbalance and set new problems The fundamental objective risks to be drawed back or at least to be unsuftlciently approxi mated It is true that measuring tools and control tools are improving But they still remain far from the use we would like to do of them Moreover calculation of efficiency of investments could not be sufficient Quick structural evolution requires special attention It must be borii con- troled and guided if we want to avoid serious disorders and explosive reactions First of all economic modernization must be fitted to social state of considered countries and territories Evolution of social structures can not be entirely subordinated to evolution of methods of production in view of greater productivity balance and method of working must be looked for which will give characteristics peculiar to each country or territory to the new economy according to ealiest data to be considered This adaptation of methods strongly affects investment policy price policy and taxation policy which it is convenient to adopt It controls rhythm of modernization in its most social aspects period of transition which could be divided into progressive phases must be the main object of previous thoughts It will fix the temporary limits of action and it will precise its forms Especially it will emphasize the extent of privileges hoided by small class who in fact enjoys lasting monopolies Sometimes economic expansion must be carried on notwithstanding class which is favoured by underdevelopment However it cannot succeed without it

A country cannot be asked for limitless effort of investment. Its limits are short run limits which economic analysis has clearly defined and permanent limits. Among the latters there are economic and non-economic limits that is to sny physical and sociological limits the latters known owing to insufficient sociological knowledge. The author gathers economic limits around three ideas first idea production and consumption borders- lines second idea economic development and economic saturation third idea strategy of conquest and defence Nature of investment for example building investment and inventories investment can be if really necessary studied from strict economic point of view although building investments are directly bound with population physical limits and customs rociological limits). On the other hand the problem of under-developped countries shows that economic limits inherent in the nature of the system or in its relations with foreign countries international investment are undissociable from sociological limits Then notion of economic space appears in its whole complexity Notion of economic horizon too It is excessive to reduce the latter to mero technical horizon As Schumpeter pointed it out invention is born to economic existence only by its transformation into innovation This transformation is usually slow at first uncertain It draws back the limits of possible investment The difference between the latter and the already realized investment taking into consideration the disposable factors of production of the system the incompressible consumption etc. is the investing potential of the system worthy politic of investment uses the margin but does not pass beyond it and thus avoids the inflationnist tensions that such passing provokes