| Titre | L'économétrie des échanges touristiques de la France | |
|---|---|---|
| Auteur | François Coulomb | |
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Revue | Economie et prévision |
| Numéro | no 84, 1988/3 L'analyse économique des échanges internationaux de tourisme | |
| Page | 41-59 | |
| Résumé anglais |
The econometrics of tourist trade, by François Coulomb.
The object of this work is to draw up a forecasting model of French tourism receipts and expenditure which will enable explaining and improving all the forecasts associated with foreign trade within the framework of macroeconomic forecasts.
It follows the previous study on "tourist trade in Oecd countries from 1960 to 1985" (1) which enabled situating the place and the performances of France in this field and demonstrating the impact of relative price movements on the tourist trade results of the various Oecd countries.
This new study opens by a brief presentation of the balance of payments "travel" line. The importance of tourism for the balance of foreign trade is recalled along with the main forces behind the good French performances.
In the second part, the nature and characteristics of the model chosen are described, after rapidly recalling some of the existing models. This quarterly model includes an expenditure equation and two receipts equations pointing to a fundamental distinction of the latter depending on whether they are expressed in dollars or not. In each of the three equation two explanatory variables appear, representing respectively "income effects" and "price effects". In this manner, the best interpretation is given of the distortions in the "Travel" line results deriving from the exchange modifications, and the classical modelizations of goods trade are generalized to tourist trade.
Annexe 1 , 2 and 3 provide as a complement all the results obtained for each of the equations.
JEL. 431 Source : Éditeur (via Persée) |
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| Article en ligne | http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/article/ecop_0249-4744_1988_num_84_3_5044 |
