Contenu du sommaire : L'analyse économique des échanges internationaux de tourisme

Tourist trade in Oecd countries from 1960 to 1985, by François Coulomb, Philippe Domergue. This study on international tourist trade concerns all the Oced countries during the past twenty-five years. A global appraisal is made by analyzing balance of payment statistics. By examining the performances of these countries in recent years (1980-85) the main general characteristics are obtained: opposite the Mediterranean and Alpine countries whose tourist trade balance shows a great surplus, there are "tourism consumer" countries (North Europe and other Oecd countries in general). Study of long period tendencies then shows a great stability in the relative positions: there are nevertheless certain original evolutions, such as the breakthrough of the small méditerranéen countries the weakening of the Alpine countries, or else the improvement trend of the American performances. In the second part of the study, attention is paid more specifically to analysis of the market shares held by the various countries, in a quite comparable manner to the classical study of international trade flows. The tourist trade market thus appears to be relatively open. None of the countries in competition benefit from an advantage protecting them from competition or ensuring a dominant position. Finally, the effect of relative prices on market shares is tested: despite the imperfections of the available statistics, the link observed appears to be globally satisfactory. JEL 132

The econometrics of tourist trade, by François Coulomb. The object of this work is to draw up a forecasting model of French tourism receipts and expenditure which will enable explaining and improving all the forecasts associated with foreign trade within the framework of macroeconomic forecasts. It follows the previous study on "tourist trade in Oecd countries from 1960 to 1985" (1) which enabled situating the place and the performances of France in this field and demonstrating the impact of relative price movements on the tourist trade results of the various Oecd countries. This new study opens by a brief presentation of the balance of payments "travel" line. The importance of tourism for the balance of foreign trade is recalled along with the main forces behind the good French performances. In the second part, the nature and characteristics of the model chosen are described, after rapidly recalling some of the existing models. This quarterly model includes an expenditure equation and two receipts equations pointing to a fundamental distinction of the latter depending on whether they are expressed in dollars or not. In each of the three equation two explanatory variables appear, representing respectively "income effects" and "price effects". In this manner, the best interpretation is given of the distortions in the "Travel" line results deriving from the exchange modifications, and the classical modelizations of goods trade are generalized to tourist trade. Annexe 1 , 2 and 3 provide as a complement all the results obtained for each of the equations. JEL. 431