| Titre | La récession des années quatre-vingt dix a-t-elle été exceptionnelle ? | |
|---|---|---|
| Auteur | Pierre-Yves Hénin, Bertrand Candelon | |
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Revue | Economie et prévision |
| Numéro | no 120, 1995/4 | |
| Rubrique / Thématique | Décrire et comprendre le cycle économique |
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| Page | 51-71 | |
| Résumé anglais |
Was the Recession of the 1990s Exceptional? by Bertrand Candelon and Pierre- Yves Hénin
The recession of the 1990s was perceived as being exceptionally severe, which begs the question as to whether it was the manifestation of increased cyclicity in the OECD economies. In this case, the extent of the recession could be due more generally to the magnitude of the last cycle, including the phase of expansion. To answer this question, a chronology of cycles is constructed using a method able to be reproduced in simulation. This allows the calculation of simulated distributions of cyclical characteristics, from which a measurement can be inferred of the probability of the realization of the values observed in the last cycle. Compared with both historical and simulated distributions, the characteristics of the last cycle place it among the largest, although more in terms of length than magnitude. In Germany and the United Kingdom, the last cycle was distinct in the length of its expansion phase. In France and the United States, it was distinct in the length of its recessionary phase. Source : Éditeur (via Persée) |
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| Article en ligne | http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/article/ecop_0249-4744_1995_num_120_4_5745 |
