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Décrire et comprendre le cycle économique

• Décrire et comprendre le cycle économique : Présentation générale - Pierre-Yves Hénin, Laurence Bloch p. 45-50
• La récession des années quatre-vingt dix a-t-elle été exceptionnelle ? - Pierre-Yves Hénin, Bertrand Candelon p. 51-71
  Was the Recession of the 1990s Exceptional? by Bertrand Candelon and Pierre- Yves Hénin The recession of the 1990s was perceived as being exceptionally severe, which begs the question as to whether it was the manifestation of increased cyclicity in the OECD economies. In this case, the extent of the recession could be due more generally to the magnitude of the last cycle, including the phase of expansion. To answer this question, a chronology of cycles is constructed using a method able to be reproduced in simulation. This allows the calculation of simulated distributions of cyclical characteristics, from which a measurement can be inferred of the probability of the realization of the values observed in the last cycle. Compared with both historical and simulated distributions, the characteristics of the last cycle place it among the largest, although more in terms of length than magnitude. In Germany and the United Kingdom, the last cycle was distinct in the length of its expansion phase. In France and the United States, it was distinct in the length of its recessionary phase.
• Décomposition tendance-cycle : estimations par des méthodes statistiques univariées - Nicolas Sobczak, Guillaume Rabault, Catherine Doz p. 73-93
  Trend-Cycle Breakdown: Estimations Using Univariate Statistical Methods by Catherine Doz, Guillaume Rabault and Nicolas Sobczak The analysis of macroeconomic series is generally based on a breakdown into trend and cycle. This paper examines the purely statistical methods of trend and cycle extraction from a complete series. It is limited to the most frequently used univariate techniques. Once the traditional techniques have been presented, the breakdown methods are introduced whereby the trend is explicitly modeled as a stochastic process. Special attention is paid to the Beveridge-Nelson breakdown and the models with unobservable components. These methods are then applied to French data. Of the models presented, only those specifying a trend integrated of order two result in a cyclical component of some magnitude. This result is analyzed from a theoretical point of view.
• L'identification des cycles sectoriels de la production manufacturière en France - Jean-Pierre Rouy p. 95-119
  Identifying Sectorial Cycles in Manufacturing Production in France by Jean-Pierre Rouy The purpose of this paper is to estimate sectorial cycles in the intermediate, equipment and consumer goods sectors of the French manufacturing industry. Two identifying tools are used: the Hodrick-Prescott filter and the Harvey model. The two methods result in cycles showing different characterizations of recent production fluctuations. The Hodrick-Prescott filter links the increase in production from 1987 to 1989 and its slowdown up to 1993 to an exceptional cycle in terms of both length and magnitude. Conversely, the Harvey model explains these fluctuations as being due to a change in the production trend. Both breakdowns reveal exceptional shocks over the last ten years. However, their impact in the short and long run proves difficult to evaluate using univariate econometric tools. Thus it is not easy to diagnose greater cyclicity in the French industry, because trend shifts can also explain the extent of recent variations.
• La dynamique asymétrique de l'emploi au cours du cycle - Corinne Perraudin p. 121-139
  The Asymmetric Employment Dynamic During the Cycle by Corinne Perraudin The purpose of this paper is to study cyclical employment asymmetry in France, the United States, Germany and England using a non-linear univariate model. To this end, we choose the class of Start (Smooth Transition AutoRegressive) models. First of all, we test the presence of non-linearity in order to define a suitable model. The estimates are used to identify the contribution of the non-linear model to a better reproduction of cyclical fluctuations in the employment curve.
• Une lecture des fluctuations récentes de l'activité : l'économie française est-elle devenue plus cyclique ? - Jean-Luc Tavernier, Yannick L'Horty p. 141-159
  An Interpretation of Recent Fluctuations in Activity: Has the French Economy Become More Cyclical? by Yannick L'Horty and Jean-Luc Tavernier The French economy experienced an exceptional cycle in terms of exemplary constancy and broad magnitude from the mid-1980s to the 1993 recession. This said, has the French economy become structurally more cyclical? To answer this question, economic amplification factors have to be found at work in the last cycle. The article explores three ways of achieving this. The first method posits that the more pronounced short-term fluctuations are due to external factors (the effects of business cycles abroad and exogenous shocks such as German reunification). The second method brings into play economic policy management by examining the macroeconomic effects of a expansive budgetary policy run with a restrictive monetary policy. The third and last method concerns breaks in behaviour and the expectations of different categories of agents in a new context marked by financial deregulation.
• Imperfections du marché du crédit, investissement des entreprises et cycle économique - Benoît Cœuré, Laurence Bloch p. 161-185
  Credit Market Imperfections, Corporate Investment and the Business Cycle by Laurence Bloch and Benoît Cœuré In the 1980s, a vast body of literature resurrected the idea that financial constraints and, more generally, the credit creation process could have significant effects on firms' behaviour and the propagation of business fluctuations. From a microeconomic standpoint, this literature highlighted asymmetric information between lenders and borrowers as well as transversal differences in the firms' access to the credit market. At a macroeconomic level, this prompts an amplification of the business cycle by financial factors, called the financial accelerator mechanism. Our aim is to assess the relevance of this thesis to French data, with particular attention to the last business cycle. First, we use individual data to examine the transversal implications of the theory by sorting firms according to their relative access to credit. We observe that firms more likely to be credit-constrained reduced their investment more during the recession: their bank credit decreased more sharply and was not offset by an increased use of other external financing. Secondly, we test for restrictions in the Euler equation of the firm's intertemporal investment programme on aggregate time-series data. Although the hypothesis of no financial constraint is rejected by the data, the key feature of the financial accelerator in the form of the asymmetric effect of the constraint by cycle phase is not accepted.