| Titre | L'identification des cycles sectoriels de la production manufacturière en France | |
|---|---|---|
| Auteur | Jean-Pierre Rouy | |
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Revue | Economie et prévision |
| Numéro | no 120, 1995/4 | |
| Rubrique / Thématique | Décrire et comprendre le cycle économique |
|
| Page | 95-119 | |
| Résumé anglais |
Identifying Sectorial Cycles in Manufacturing Production in France by Jean-Pierre Rouy
The purpose of this paper is to estimate sectorial cycles in the intermediate, equipment and consumer goods sectors of the French manufacturing industry. Two identifying tools are used: the Hodrick-Prescott filter and the Harvey model. The two methods result in cycles showing different characterizations of recent production fluctuations. The Hodrick-Prescott filter links the increase in production from 1987 to 1989 and its slowdown up to 1993 to an exceptional cycle in terms of both length and magnitude. Conversely, the Harvey model explains these fluctuations as being due to a change in the production trend. Both breakdowns reveal exceptional shocks over the last ten years. However, their impact in the short and long run proves difficult to evaluate using univariate econometric tools. Thus it is not easy to diagnose greater cyclicity in the French industry, because trend shifts can also explain the extent of recent variations. Source : Éditeur (via Persée) |
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| Article en ligne | http://www.persee.fr/web/revues/home/prescript/article/ecop_0249-4744_1995_num_120_4_5747 |
