Contenu du sommaire

Dorothée Schmid, Turkey and the EU: a precarious rapprochement The start of negotiations with the European Union was good news for Ankara, an encouraging token of success. However, the slow progression and absence of perspective in negotiations has made the good news start to seem like failure. Public opinion and government policy seem to have fallen in line on the issue, and Turkey rethink its desire for a rapprochement with the EU. This turn comes in the midst of a fast-paced redefinition of the field of influence of a dynamic diplomacy and a regional boom.

Pierre Razoux, What future is there for the Turkey-Israel couple? At the end of the Cold War, Turkey and Israel established a strategic partnership. However the arrival into power of Turkey's Justice and Development Party (AKP) and of a somewhat uncompromising government in Israel, combined with the new geopolitical set-up in the Middle-East, have emptied this partnership of its substance. As things stand, it is now more of a constraint than an asset in terms of Turkey's new foreign policy. Nevertheless, it is in both countries' interest to maintain the partnership, even if only for appearance's sake.

Nur Bolat, Does the Ergenekon case pose a threat to Turkish democracy? An investigation into the Ergenekon case was opened in 2007, shedding light on subversive plans aimed at the Turkish State. Above and beyond facts which have yet to be fully established, the case has a wider meaning within a debate which is central to the political scene in Turkey: the link between the real State and the ‘deep State'. The ‘deep State' is a system of influences and allegiances which runs parallel to the official institutions. The Ergenekon case currently bears witness to the country's political division, but may eventually lead to an evolution of the country's institutions.

Hamit Bozarslan, Ankara ‘opens up' but the Kurdish problem remains unsolved In 2009, the paradoxes of the Turkish political scene regarding the Kurdish issue were highlighted, namely pressure from Kemalist military and contradictions within the AKP which can renounce neither its Turk or Kurd electorate. The government's ‘opening up' continues, but is unlikely to be conclusive in terms of legislative advances. The resolution of the Kurdish issue is halted by the regime's internal uncertainties, and is henceforth dependent on the evolution of neighboring countries Iraq, Iran and Syria.

Gilbert Étienne, Afghanistan-Pakistan: a vicious circle The paper reviews the grave shortcomings of international aid to Afghanistan since 2002, with reference to reconstruction, drugs and the conduct of the new war against the Taliban since 2003-2004. The paper also examines relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan: the growing connections between the Taliban of both countries and Pakistan's ambiguous attitude towards Afghanistan. There is some hope in Afghanistan, with possible improvements in the conduct of the war and the reconstruction, but the future remains uncertain. As for Pakistan, anti-Taliban movements are growing but the government is weak. The future remains hazy but Pakistan is a country with a number of assets and simply labeling it a failed State is a dramatic over-simplification.

Pierre Chareyron, Counter-insurgency as a solution to conflict in Afghanistan Counter-insurgency in Afghanistan stems from lessons taught by colonial wars but these need to be adapted, taking into account the specifics of our time. Factors such as the legitimacy and the homogeneity of the insurgency, the weight of public opinion amongst countries of the coalition, as well as the role of technological advance must be taken into consideration. In a wider sense, defining a clear political objective and maintaining coherence in the efforts to stabilize the region must remain the main priority.

Rodolphe Modeste, Afghanistan – caveats halting progress National caveats, restrictions set by the United States which dictate the way in which their forces can be used, are causing a series of difficulties in Afghanistan. The caveats limit the operational flexibility of international forces, imposing restrictions in all areas: for combat operations, including those carried out conjunctly with the Afghan army, as well as in the fight against narcotraffic. However, caveats can by no means be held solely responsible for the current military deadlock.

Samy Cohen, Israel and Iran: bomb or bombing? According to Menachem Begin's doctrine, Israel would never allow a neighboring State to own nuclear weapons, all the while denying the fact. But even in Israel politicians' and experts' analyses dispute the veracity of a nuclear threat from Iran. As a result of this, as well as the technical difficulties linked to the development of an anti-Iranian attack force, Benjamin Netanyahu seems set to move the country away from the “Begin doctrine”. Political solutions now seem to be favored, over the original threat of an Israeli retort.

Pierre-Henri d'Argenson, The creation of the European diplomatic services – what is at stake? The creation of the European External Action Service (EEAS) is central to the implementation of the Treaty of Lisbon. The High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and the EU Security Policy will have to find her place within the complex institutional landscape – between the President of the Council, the Council itself, and the Commission. Catherine Ashton seems, for now, to be closer to the Commission: roles must be properly and separately redistributed in order to give the new configuration prescribed by the Lisbon Treaty all its weight.

Pierre Duquesne, The impossible equation of a global governance The crisis poses with particular urgency the question of the function of a global governing body. The G20 has established itself; its relation with other governing bodies, and with the ‘Bretton Woods' institutions, however, remains hazy. Its intended purpose, the weight of each governing body and the role of regional groups (particularly the European Union) have yet to be clearly defined. The influence of emerging countries must be reinforced but that alone will not suffice to define a new global architecture.

Boris Eisenbaum, The Shanghai Cooperation Organization – negotiation, regional cooperation and power shifts in Central Asia The fall of the USSR restored Central Asia's strategic importance: poorly structured area between Russia and China, home to a growing Islamic threat, energy sources and American power – since September 11th and the war in Afghanistan. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization was set up to address just these issues. The organization's future, however, depends on the new balance of regional powers and on the solidity of the rapprochement between Russia and China.

Yannick Prost, Economic crisis and instability in West Africa The world crisis has had varied repercussions on States in West Africa. Some States collapsed and have since entered a fragile convalescence; other resource-rich States have relied on regular income derived from the wealth of their territories; but, for the most part, States of West Africa have managed to balance the demands of democratization and good governance. Certainly reforms were not enough to solve issues as the current West Africa social crisis is at once exogenous and due to internal development crises.

André Dumoulin, The ‘French choice' within the global nuclear landscape: halfway between caution and opportunity The end of the Cold War did not bring about the disappearance of nuclear power. As evidence by the great powers' nuclear programmes and the rate of proliferation, nor will the current debate on eradicating nuclear power. Nonetheless, current debate within NATO could lead to the withdrawal of American nuclear forces from Europe. If this were the case, France's position would not change drastically but would take on a new dimension in Europe.

Antoine Coppolani, The Bush years and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict George Bush's years in power marked an American disengagement from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. In the eyes of the Administration, the idea that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict was not a key factor in Middle-Eastern policies was confirmed by 9/11. Subsequently, intervention in Iraq was supported by the slogan “the road to Jerusalem runs through Bagdad”. Rather than propose a solution, the Annapolis conference merely confirmed problems due to damage on the field. Barack Obama has inherited said problems.