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We have drawn on portfolio theory and international diversification in order to analyse strategies that help reduce emerging economy exposure to exchange-rate risk. We show that it may be efficient for an investor, by taking into account the several components of the global risk, to build up a portfolio of emerging-country assets denominated in local currency - unhedged against currency risk - compared with a strategy that includes emerging-country securities denominated in foreign currencies. This strategy would lead to a reduction in the “original sin” (i. e. the inability of emerging economies to borrow in local currency), and de facto to a reduction in currency mismatches in balance sheets of emerging economies. JEL Classification: G11; E44; F34.

Since the mid-1990s, we observe an increase of world current account imbalances. These imbalances have only been partially reduced since the burst of the crisis in 2007. They reflect, to some extent, exchange rate misalignments, an issue which has been frequently studied in the literature. However, these imbalances, which have reinforced in the 2000s, are also important inside the Euro area. This analysis cannot be reduced to simple estimates of euro misalignment at the world level because of specific constraints that exist for each member of the Euro area. This article aims to examine to what extent intra-European imbalances reflect exchange rate misalignments for each “national euro”.JEL Classification: F31; F32.

We evaluate the growth effects of real effective exchange rate misalignments for the G20 countries over the period 1980-2006. To this end, we first estimate real effective equilibrium exchange rates relying on the behavioral approach BEER, from which misalignments are derived. Second, we estimate a dynamic panel growth model in which among the traditional determinants of growth, our measure of misalignments is included. Our findings put forward some important differences between developed and emerging economies. The magnitude of the misalignments is more pronounced in the case of emerging countries, and the speed of convergence towards the estimated equilibrium exchange rate is slower for industrialized ones. Turning to our growth regression analysis, we find that misalignments have a negative effect on the economic growth. As a consequence, an appropriate exchange rate policy would close the gap between real exchange rates and their equilibrium level. JEL Classification: C23; F31; O47.

We analyse the role of geographic distance for bilateral remittances. We use a new data set on bilateral remittance flows from OECD countries to Romania over the period 2005-2009. Contrasting with existing literature, we find that remittances increase with distance but in a non-linear way. JEL Classification: F24 ; J61 ; O15.

This paper documents that the oil market has a natural tendency to experience an alternation of periods of turbulence and stability because of weak price-elasticities of supply and demand, responsible for the fact that “there is always too much or too little oil” (Watkins, 1937). In particular, it proposes a simple “Econ 101” explanation for the surge in both the level and the volatility of oil prices over the last few years. The analysis shows that despite the 2009 global recession, there still is “too little oil”, therefore the energy crisis is not yet over and the price should rise to new record levels in the mid-term. On the other hand, simulations provide evidence that spare capacities should be built up again in the long-term—that is, there might be “too much oil” again—and hence the nominal price could correct downward and enter a new steady period once sufficient investment is made. JEL Classification: D4; E37; Q41.