Contenu du sommaire : Développements récents de l'analyse économique LXe congrès de l'AFSE

Contributions to public goods and social preferences: recent insights from behavioral economics`/titrebHow cooperation emerges between non-kins is a key issue for understanding the evolution of societies. Exploring the role of the heterogeneity of social preferences in the decision to contribute to the provision of public goods reveals that conditional cooperation explains the decay of contributions over time. Moral rules can, however, counter this evolution. Indeed, altruistic sanctions can turn a double moral hazard problem into a major source of cooperation. While in the absence of institutions a minority of selfish individuals leads the majority of other-regarding individuals to free-ride, the implementation of appropriate institutions can lead them to behave as the selfless individuals. Classification JEL : C92, C93, H41, D6, D8

Economic theory in crisis. The current crisis has shown how far macroeconomic theory is from the economic phenomena it is supposed to explain. I give some historical explanations for the development of this gap between theory and reality. Then I discuss the solidity of the foundations of the general equilibrium model and of the basic model in financial economics and the reasons for which these do not contain even the possibility of a crisis. I suggest several avenues towards an analysis which do take account of the occurrence of such episodes with simple examples. Once one considers, as I propose, the economy as a complex evolving system the nature of the problem of its analysis and of its regulation changes. Policy makers are aware of the need for such new approaches and it is up to economists to provide them. Classification JEL : E00, E6, B00, G00, D5

Matching models in economics: recent advances. While matching models have been used in economics for half a century, they have recently attracted renewed attention. We briefly survey some of these recent developments, restricting our presentation to transferable utility models. In particular, we argue that the main limitation of such models – that the group's aggregate behavior does not vary with the internal distribution of powers – can be bypassed by a simple generalization. We provide an illustration of such a generalized model and discuss its properties. Classification JEL : C78, D11, D13

Mobility, careers and inequality. In this paper we present a study on mobility and careers, using a unique panel data set in France. The fh-dads database, resulting from the matching of Pôle Emploi (French National Employment Agency) historical database and dads panel data set, allows us to highlight indeed stability and instability of employment. In order to take into account the presence of unobserved heterogeneity, we use a fixed effect transition model proposed by Magnac [2000] that depicts transitions on the job market. Results reveal the existence of a large heterogeneity in mobility between individuals that cannot be explained by individual characteristics only. This heterogeneity leads to a particular evolution of mobility, sensitive to the economic situation, and linked to the evolution of inequality. Classification JEL : C23 ; J60 ; D31

Who benefits the most from peer effects within ethnic group? Empirical evidence on the south african labour market. This paper provides evidence that local social interactions within ethnic groups may explain the puzzling variations in labour-market outcomes across individuals. Being surrounded by working peers increases the probability to be employed and wages. This effect differs through a selection effect : gender and ethnic groups who are discriminated against, benefit most from peer effects. The problems of endogeneity and simultaneity of local peer effects are addressed by using data aggregated at the province level and instrumentation. A social multiplier exists : any labour-market shock is magnified with an elasticity of 0.5. Classification JEL : D83, J15, J16, J21, O55

Age at school entry, accumulation of human capital and educational guidance: the case of France`/titrebThis article econometrically evaluates the impact of age at primary school entry on individual human capital accumulation and educational guidance for the French case. We use the natural experiment formed by the variation in the individuals' birth month and by the possibility of late or early entries, allowing for substantial variations in the effective age at school entry at school. We use the ‘Training and Occupational Skills' (Formation et Qualification professionnelle) surveys and show that age of entry has no impact on indicators of human capital accumulation (years of schooling, level of diploma), but influences the educational guidance (to repeat a year, to pursue vocational education). Regressions conducted on sub-samples of women and men qualify these results. Classification JEL : I21, J13, J24

Does employment protection influence migration flows toward oecd countries? We show that labour market institutions, and particularly employment protection are an important determinant of migration flows. Contrary to the popular wisdom, migrants are not attracted by more protective legislation. On the contrary, we show that the employment protection differential acts as a negative impact on migration flows. This differential in the case of high value can be seen as a lower integration on labour market and affects migration negatively. These results are obtained taking into consideration the high proportion of nil flows using Heckman two-steps method and Poisson method. We also control for a potential endogeneity bias by instrumenting our variable of employment protection.Classification JEL : J8, 01, F2.

Migration: burden or benefit for welfare state financing? Immigration is often perceived as an instrument of adaptation for aging countries. In this paper, we evaluate, using a dynamic general equilibrium model, the contribution of migration policy in reducing the tax burden associated with the aging population in France. We show that the age and skill structure of immigrants is the key feature that mainly determines the effects on social protection finances. Overall, these effects are all the more positive in the short-medium term that the migration policy is selective (in favor of more skilled workers). In the long term, beneficial effects of a selective policy may disappear. But the financial gains from more consequent migration flows are relatively moderated in comparison of demographic changes it implies. Classification JEL : C68, D58, E60, H55, H68.

Remittances from South Africa : are the conditions of departure determining ? This paper looks at the determinants of international remittances in the context of South-South migration. We use a 2006 survey on 639 African migrants living in Johannesburg. In addition to the traditional variables (income, age and education of the migrant, etc.) we consider the impact of departure conditions from the country of origin and subjective variables (perception of relative wealth, attachment to the country of origin) on remittances. The results show that having left the country of origin due to violence has a negative effect on the propensity to remit, whereas the attachment to the country of origin and the perception of a better economic situation in the host country positively influence remittances. Classification JEL : F22, F24, O15, O55.

The extensive margin of trade and business cycle synchronization. This paper shows that an increase in trade integration has mixed effects on business cycle synchronization. In a two country dsge model with flexible prices we show that an increase in the extensive margin of trade reduces the coupling of business cycles with regard to a trade increase affecting only the intensive margin. This phenomenon comes from a dampening in the terms of trade adjustment. Empirically we find that, for a group of ten European countries between 1995 and 2007, an increase of 1% in the extensive margin of bilateral trade has reduced business cycle synchronization by something between 0.11 % and 0.34 % depending on the choice of control variables and the definition of the extensive margin of trade. Classification JEL : F4, F44, F15

Temporal dimension and equilibrium exchange rate: an application to the case of the united states`/titrebIn a unified theoretical framework introduced by López-Villavicencio et al. [2012], we analyze the two main models of equilibrium exchange rate, namely, the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate (feer) and the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate (beer). To understand the interactions between these two measures, we study in detail the temporal dimension. The case of the United States will illustrate our analysis that highlights the structural changes in competitiveness, the dynamics of net external positions and valuation effects in explaining the divergences. Classification JEL : F31, F32, C23

The adjustment process of real exchange rates in the franc CFA zone. The aim of this paper is to analyse the adjustment process of real effective exchange rates towards their equilibrium level for the cfa zone countries over the period 1985-2007. Accordingly, we estimate a panel smooth transition error correction model in order to take into account non-linear phenomena. In particular, we show that the adjustment process of real effective exchange rates is indeed asymmetric while this asymmetry differs substantially between countries. This last result tends to show the difficulty to apply a single exchange rate policy in the cfa zone and rather calls for further coordination and policy harmonization between the countries of the zone. Classification JEL : C23, F31, O1.

Fallacious liaisons: near multicollinearity and classical suppressors, aid, policies and growth. This paper shows that a multiple regression with two highly correlated explanatory variables, both of them with a near zero correlation with the dependent variable may correspond to a spurious regression or to a homeostatic model, with estimates highly sensible to outliers. The regression method does not allow how to decide which one of the two models is relevant. Statistical significance of the (very high) parameters is easily obtained, as shown doing Monte Carlo simulations. An example is provided by the Burnside and Dollar [2000] article on aid, policies and growth. Classification JEL : C12, C18, C52, F35, O47.

The stock market volatility in france for the long run. French stock market volatility observed over the last 150 years presents a huge instability. From a very low level before the First World War, it shows a continuous increase during the inter-war period. Despite peace and economic stability, volatility has never converged to levels seen pre-1914. The level of stock market volatility seems to be linked to the monetary instability and the magnitude of public deficits. Classification JEL : G1, G12, N23, N24.

Forecasting without persistence. The forecasting literature has identified three important and broad issues: the predictive content is unstable over time, in-sample and out-of-sample discordant results and the problematic statistical inference with highly persistent predictors. In this paper, we simultaneously address these three issues, proposing to directly treat the persistence of forecasting variables before use. We thus cut-out the low frequency components and show, in simulations and on financial data, that this pre-treatment improves the predictive power of the studied economic variables. Classification JEL : C14, C53, G17.

An economic evaluation of the model risk for long-term investors. The recent experience from the global financial crisis has raised serious questions about the accuracy of standard risk measures as a tool to quantify extreme downward risks. These standard risk measures, such as the var, emerge over the last decades as the industry standard for risk management and asset allocation (Basak and Shapiro [2001] ; Montfort [2008]). We estimate the riskiness of risk models and we evaluate its impact on optimal portfolios at various time horizons. Based on a long sample of u.s. data, we find an inverse U-shape relation between var model errors and the horizon that impacts the optimal asset allocation of the representative agent. Classification JEL : C14, C52, G11, G32.

On carbon price determinants: comparison between phases I and II. The aim of this paper is to investigate the determinants of the carbon price during the two phases of the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (eu ets). More specifically, relying on daily eu allowance futures contracts, we test whether the carbon price drivers identified for Phase I still hold for Phase II and evolve toward a long-run relationship. Accounting for the 2006 structural break on the carbon market, we show that while a cointegrating relationship exists for both phases of the eu ets, the nature of this equilibrium relationship is different across the two subperiods, with an increasing role of fundamentals in Phase II. Deriving equilibrium values, we show that the carbon price tends to be undervalued since the end of 2009. Classification JEL : Q4, C22.`np pagenum="602"/b

400 years of patent protection: a comparative cliometric contribution. This paper contributes to the empirical understanding of economic growth. It examines, as an original case study, the structural and spatial dynamics of patents in Germany, France, the United States, Japan and the United Kingdom. The time series are extracted from a new international, comparative and historical database on the long term evolution of patents in 40 countries from the 17th century to 1945 and in more than 150 countries from 1945 to present (Diebolt and Pellier [2010a]). We found strong proof of infrequent large shocks resulting essentially from the major economic and political events formed by the two World Wars in the twentieth century. Our results question the autonomous process, i.e. the internal dynamic`np pagenum="612"/b of the patent systems. Wars seem to push innovation and finally the economic growth process itself. Classification JEL : C22, C82, N70, O34

Montesquieu and the new political economy : inter-group inequality and political regimes transitions. The importance of The Spirit of laws for the political and economic thought is well-known. The aim of the paper is to reconsider the famous statements on political stability through the recent developments of New Political Economy. More precisely, we show that, as in many models of NPE, economic inequality is considered by Montesquieu as one of the key-element of political transitions. By insisting on republican government, we provide a definition of the republican virtue as an inequality aversion that should be moderated in republican to avoid political instability.Classification JEL : B1, H3, K0.