Contenu du sommaire : Où va l'Iran ?

Iran Is Weak, but the Islamic Republic Feels Strong
Though Iran is suffering due to Western sanctions, the Islamic Republic feels it has won the nuclear battle. If the Iranian economy is in fact in crisis, it is not on the verge of collapse. Iranian officials think, therefore, that with a new national consensus they could gain more time with little concession to Western allies. The Western allies, without a doubt, are also searching for ways to delay: negotiations are therefore unlikely to progress rapidly.

Iran: Social Changes and Political Protest
Since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Iranian society has changed considerably. As women have been able to stay in school longer, Iran has seen a decline in birth rates and a challenge posed to the patriarchal order. Young people have discovered new spaces of freedom and begun to challenge the moral order imposed by the regime. The repression of the 2009 “green movement” has radicalized the opposition to President Ahmadinejad.

Iran in Its Regional Context After the war against Iraq, which led to the development of relationships for survival in the region, the Islamic Republic has cleverly taken advantage of international changes, the US war against Saddam Hussein, and the aftermath of 9/11 to increase its regional influence and insert itself into several multilateral structures. Iran's nuclear ambitions and the uncertainties arising from Arab uprisings, however, have hindered the development of Iran's regional presence.

Nuclear Iran: What Do We Know?
Despite the mobilization of all forms of intelligence gathering, the international community has no information that enables it to be certain of Iran's intentions. Tehran is certainly seeking a nuclear capability, but it also understands that the decision to build a bomb, or more than one – in order to achieve a true deterrent posture – is a red line, the crossing of which would prove extremely dangerous.

Nomenklatura 2012 : New Decision Makers The term nomenklatura, which supposedly disappeared with communism, continues to exist in the political vocabulary of Eastern European countries. The decision makers that now run these countries are a combination of heirs of the dissidence and young elites trained mostly in the West. The origin of these new elites explains the particular positions they adopt with respect to economics, the strategic choices they favor for the construction of Europe, and for the defense of their national interests.

The Economies of the European Union's “New Member States”The entrance of the five Central European countries into the EU has resulted in a disruption of their economic positions. Trade with the EU has become dominant. Foreign investments are mainly from EU countries for the benefit of those states who have also been the main beneficiaries of redistributive transfers within the EU. They, however, have different perspectives with respect to the single currency; some have adopted it while others show some reluctance.

After Europe's Return: The Foreign Policies of Central European Countries The foreign policies of Central European countries cannot be summarized simply through a systematic Atlanticism, a fact that could be explained by the fear of a threat coming from Russia. The countries' diverse policies have grown out of national differences and evolve in response to domestic political contexts and the international situation. The Eastern Partnership, though there are different opinions about it, maintains an important place within EU policy.

The Context of the 2012 US Presidential Elections
It is undoubtedly in foreign policy that Obama's first term will display the most success. The economic deadlock, paired with the longest crisis since the Great Depression of 1929, however, will pose serious questions for the candidates, both of whom know their fiscal maneuverability to be extremely limited. The increasing polarization of political opinion should lead to a hotly contested election where the personalities of the candidates are likely to play decisive roles.

Civil War in Syria: The Return of the Repressed
The Syrian uprising has evolved into a civil war. The lines between the various communities making up the Syrian mosaic have become more evident. Inter- communal resentments that have been repressed for decades have begun to resurface. The regime, which has long exploited the different communities, is unable to control the “sectarian” movement of the conflict. Whatever the outcome of current events, the hatreds that fuel the civil war will continue to weigh on the country's future.

Egypt: The Muslim Brotherhood and the Battle for Power
Mohamed Morsi is the first civilian president of Egypt, but no one knows what powers he has. This will inevitably need to be specified within the framework of the negotiations between the Muslim Brotherhood and the Supreme Council of the armed forces. The confrontation between these two dominant forces will determine the outcome of the constitutional process. Much will also depend on the cohesion of the Brotherhood and the relationships it will maintain with other Egyptian political forces.

Northern Ireland, Between Appeasement and Retrenchment
The Good Friday Agreement (1998) and the St. Andrews Agreement (2006) have paved the way for conflict resolution in Northern Ireland. Nonetheless, the functioning of the new institutions set up by these agreements is far from perfect. The most radical parties were elected to the Stormont Assembly and tensions between Unionists and Republicans remain palpable. The threat of violent groups continues to hover over the peace process.

Libya: Has Gaddafi's Dream Come True?
Libya can manage a relatively peaceful and effective transition because part of the logic and institutions of the Libyan Jamahiriya paradoxically survived the 2011 revolution. The country must nevertheless decide on major reforms, settle the unitary state/federal state debate, profoundly reshape its political institutions, and create a new relationship of trust with its security forces. Only the latter could lead to the disarmament of militias.

World Hunger: True and False Debates
The “green revolution”, launched in the 1960s after the first measures of the postwar period, has handled much of the food problem in Southern Asia. But sub-Saharan Africa remains burdened with serious hardships and, even in Asia, the efforts that led to success yesterday seem less effective today. It is now necessary to turn back to the original “green revolution” model, both its domestic political dimensions and its requirements in terms of international cooperation.