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A model of a dependent central bank that internalizes the government's budget constraint is used to examine the optimal composition of the euro zone. The model embodies the desire to stimulate output and to provide monetary financing to governments. Unable to pre-commit to first-best policies, the central bank produces excess inflation — a tendency partially reduced in a monetary union. On the basis of this framework, calibrated to euro zone data, the current membership is shown not to be optimal: other members would benefit from the expulsion of several countries, notably Greece, Italy, and France. A narrow monetary union centered around Germany might be able to guarantee central bank independence, but simulation results suggest that such a narrow monetary union would not be in Germany's interest relative to a return to the deutsche mark. JEL Classification: F15; F33.

This paper investigates to which extent exporters, importers and multinational firms have a greater propensity to start innovation activities. We merge two consecutive French Community Innovation Surveys (CIS), and apply the model of Crépon et al. (1998) to a sample of first-time innovators (“switchers”), which are compared to firms that do not engage in innovation activities. We estimate the probability of becoming an innovative firm depending on past international experience, which allows us to test the idea that firms learn from foreign markets. It appears that firms that both export and import are more likely to start investing in R&D, but international activities do not affect R&D intensity. Regardless of size, industry, ownership and R&D intensity, firms that both export and import and multinational firms are found more likely to become innovators, by introducing new products for their markets and/or new patents. Finally, knowledge production is found to increase productivity in the next period. These findings are consistent with the existence of learning effects through international activities. This study also contributes to comparing the innovation process of longtime innovators and switchers, and suggests that the latter less depend on R&D expenses, market power and size in order to produce knowledge. JEL Classification: D22; F23; O31

We reassess the trade impact of common currency arrangements – the Rose effect – on the basis of new empirical evidence stemming from the Oceanian Island Countries. In particular, we investigate how the conjunction of a common colonial heritage and membership in a common currency arrangement can impact bilateral trade. To do this, we use different specifications of the gravity equation over an original panel dataset covering the period from 1980 to 2009. Our results first show that the trade impact of common currency arrangements is much more prominent and significant for country pairs that share a common colonial heritage than for country pairs with distinct former colonizers. Second, while a common colonial heritage does significantly and positively affect trade, whether the underlying country pair is in a common currency arrangement or not, the pro-trade effect of a common colonial heritage is nonetheless enhanced by the existence of such a common currency arrangement. These results suggest, more generally, that further steps towards monetary integration in the zone could not be contemplated without taking historical factors into account. JEL Classification: F15; F33; F54.

This paper investigates the asymmetric effect in the energy-growth nexus. Using the data for real GDP per capita and energy consumption per capita over the period 1971-2008, we examine the relationship for 12 sub-Saharan African countries employing hidden cointegration approach. For Gabon, Nigeria and Côte d'Ivoire, the results show that their growth rates could be adversely affected by conservation policies. However, for Benin, Kenya and Sudan the results show that conservation policies could enhance the growth process in these countries. We also find instances of policy dilemma for Nigeria and Benin that conform to both the growth and the conservation hypotheses. JEL Classification: Q43; C54; C22.

This paper evaluates the time-varying degrees of weak-form efficiency of the crude oil markets using the Modified Shannon Entropy (MSE) and the Symbolic Time Series Analysis (STSA) approach. Using daily data from May 20, 1987 to March 6, 2012 for two worldwide crude oil benchmarks (West Texas Intermediate and Europe Brent), our findings reveal that the weak-form market efficiency of two oil markets evolves through time, but with different time trends. Moreover, the WTI market appears to be less efficient than the Europe Brent. These results have several implications for commodity portfolio hedgers and policymakers. JEL Classification: G14; G15; C87.