Contenu du sommaire : France-Allemagne, 50 ans après le Traité de l'Élysée

Georges-Henri Soutou, The Emergence of the Franco-German Couple: A Marriage of Convenience The “Franco-German couple” asserted itself in the 1950s, especially through de Gaulle and Adenauer. Giscard and Schmidt, Mitterrand and Kohl provided diverse interpretations that deepened the relationship, despite the ulterior motives of each and interpellations of history, especially during the German reunification. The “couple” may seem today to be less decisive and less centralized in an enlarged Europe where it must face globalization and the crisis.

Pierre Lellouche, France and Germany: The Double Denial
Though balanced in the past, Franco-German relations have been profoundly affected by the end of the Cold War, an event that enhanced the economic dimension of power. France now suffers from serious economic stalling and Germany remains highly uncertain of itself. This has produced a double denial: France refuses to adapt to the global economy and Germany refuses to assume the international responsibilities conferred by its new power.

Ulrike Guérot, The Franco-German Golden Anniversary: Is it the End for this Couple?
France and Germany have very different views when it comes to economics and the preferred forms of European integration. Germany fears that France is not making the necessary structural reforms with respect to its economy, and is surprised that its proposals for a political union have elicited any response from France. Paris and Berlin should develop proposals together to be able to integrate both economic and political issues to generate a new European project.

Hans Stark, Paris-Berlin: Solid Relationship, Asymmetric Relations, Opposing Policies
The Franco-German relationship is embodied in various declarations, celebrations, and even more numerous cooperative structures. The whole of this device, however, has failed to adequately close the significant cultural gaps between the two countries. Persistent differences in their philosophies, and therefore policies, are illustrated particularly by the difficulties of their security and defense cooperation and the growing divergence of their economic choices.

Patrick A. Messerlin, The WTO, Europe, and France Facing the Prolonged Coma of the Doha Round
The Doha Round is in a coma. Nonetheless, this prolonged coma is not the end of the WTO, an organization that cannot be reduced to a forum for negotiations; it is faced with a busy work schedule outside the Doha Round. The question ultimately arising from this comatose state is choice of preferential agreements, now the only way to keep economies open. This question is crucial for the European Union and France, both of whom are in need of urgent growth.

Jean-Marc Siroën, Economic Crisis, Globalization, and Protectionism“Economic patriotism” or fears of a return to protectionism seem paradoxical when the international division of labor is based on tasks rather than on products, with interdependencies between firms and countries often rendering measures to support national employment counter-productive. The crisis has not challenged trade liberalization and, unless the focus is to unravel international networks, a return to protectionism seems rather implausible.

Christian Deblock, Trade Agreements: Between Cooperation and Competition
The WTO calls for coherence between trade agreements and the multilateral system. Nevertheless, the history of these preferential trade agreements shows that the general trend does not lead to increased coherence between two systems of rules, but rather to their decoupling, leading to treaties based on a small number of models. One might even ask if we are not headed towards a greater incompatibility between two different conceptions of economic cooperation.

Mathieu Pellerin, Sahel: Libyan Contagion
The war in Libya has destabilized the Sahel. Thousands of weapons – including surface-to-air missiles – are circulating within this region through its porous borders, and Tuareg fighters who worked for Gaddafi have scattered throughout the area. The collapse of northern Mali, now partially controlled by various Islamist groups, can be seen as a direct consequence of the Libyan conflict. In Niger, there is a renewed threat of a Tuareg rebellion.

Mansouria Mokhefi, Qatar: Strengths and Weaknesses of Activism
Once fairly quiet in terms of foreign policy, Qatar intends, since the Arab uprisings of 2011, to occupy a central role in reshaping the geopolitics of the region. It is hoping to make considerable financial resources. However, systemic interventions could be a problem for those countries of the region that tend always to aspire to a position of regional leader (Egypt, Saudi Arabia) as well as for external powers traditionally intervening in the region.

Renaud Dorlhiac, Serbia after Boris Tadic: The Past for the Future?
Elections in Serbia in May 2012 resulted in the establishment of the most nationalist government since the fall of Slobodan Milosevic. Most neighboring countries immediately distanced themselves from the new government. Relations with the European Union and NATO risk becoming considerably tenser – the Kosovo issue being the main apple of discord – while relations with Russia are likely to experience a new upturn.

Yoel Guzansky, Israel and the Gulf Countries: Between Iran and the “Arab Spring”The momentary thaw between Israel and the Gulf countries in the wake of the Madrid conference was quickly ended by the failures of the peace process. A number of links, sometimes narrow and almost always secret, however, exist between Israel and these countries, whether they concern economics or issues of security. The threat from Iran is a common one, and has become today a factor of rapprochement, even if the establishment of formal relations remains dependent on a comprehensive solution to the Israeli-Palestinian problem.