Contenu du sommaire : Élections 2012

French electoral mobilisation in 2012The French can no longer be described as systematic voters. Intermittent voting has become the order of the day with the presidential election being the only one that continues to have broad appeal. In the 2012 presidential election, the strong level of turnout broke with the cycle of abstention that had characterized all mid-term elections during Nicolas Sarkozy's presidency. Nevertheless, compared to the 2007 presidential election, turnout decreased among all sections of the population. This article draws on recent electoral surveys conducted by the Cevipof to examine changes in electoral turnout according to the sociological and political characteristics of the different electorates. Comparing the last three presidential elections (2002, 2007 and 2012), it evaluates the share of sociological and the share of political abstention. More broadly, this article reconsiders the principle explanations for turnout models, attempting to make the diverse motives for voting versus non-voting understandable.

Tracking Change in the French-style Gender Gap through the 2012 Presidential Election
From contraception rights in 1965, to abortion rights in 1974, and demands for parity in 1995, the French presidential election has been the theater for debate on the principle of equal rights between the sexes which has been a constitutional right in France since 1946. The 2012 French presidential election was characterised by intense media coverage of the subject, focussing in particular on equal pay, the struggle to end violence against women, and parity. The discussion will firstly focus on the political dimension of attitudes towards gender equality in the election campaign, and will then look at whether this election saw the end of gender-based electoral behavior. Since the 1980s, electoral analyses have underlined the alignment of male-female electoral behavior explaining this in terms of their new-found socioeconomic autonomy. The reticence of women to vote for the National Front was interpreted as an expression of socio-demographic differences (in particular concerning age and religion) that expressed certain value issues. Analysis of the 2012 Présidoscopie and the post-election survey carried out by the Cevipof sheds light on current developments and changes in the French-style gender gap. It offers an explanation for the notable alignment of the male-female vote for the National Front, showing how the social repositioning of the party has increased their appeal in particular to sections of the population where job insecurity is highest and which include large numbers of women.

One choice, multiple logics. political preferences, space of possibilities and votes in France 2012Voting and voters have changed. The growing level of hesitation, the ups and downs of turnout but also of partisan supports are clear proofs of it. In this article, we will try to understand this “new deal” by presenting and using a particular tool : the voting probability questions. These questions present a very different portrait of voters than the one drawn by the classical voting intentions questions. Negative logic of voting appears as is the space of voting possibilities of individuals. Furthermore, they shed a new light on the dynamics of the 2012 presidential campaign and on the ongoing ideological reconfiguration both on the left and on the right. These analyses are based on the TriÉlec surveys conducted between July 2011 and March 2012.

The end of tripolar competition?
The tripolar competition between the left, the moderate right and the far right was one of the keystones of the electoral order that emerged in France in 1984. Sharply challenged by Nicolas Sarkozy in 2007, the electoral divide between the UMP and the FN was not restored in 2012 despite the recovery of the far right and the high score of Marine Le Pen in the presidential election. While the FN remains isolated in the party system, we argue that the radicalization of the UMP on immigration, law and order, and national identity has confirmed dramatic changes in the geographical distribution and the logics of moderate right voting. These two dynamics indicate that the UMP electorate and the FN electorate have become closer together.

Emerging French IR ?
This article purports to study the situation of French International Relations, both inside French academia and in the global discipline of IR, on the basis of the answers obtained by the fourth TRIP (Teaching, Research, and International Policy) survey to which 3 466 IR scholars from 20 different countries – and, among them, 101 French IR scholars – have participated in September 2011. The answers provided to questions concerning the place of IR in French academia, the so-called French school of IR, multidisciplinarity, French inscription in the global discipline, the link between theory and practice and the effect of language, show an ambiguous picture : there are clear indications that French IR are emerging, even though some indicators show that this emergence remains partial.

Do social sciences have to accumulate capital ?
This paper develops a critical reading of Hakim's Erotic Capital. The book calls social scientists to pay more attention to an under-rated kind of capital, which should however be worth of as much attention as the economic, social and cultural capitals. If Hakim invites to consider the body in a sociological way, her approach can be challenged. Is erotic capital fully distinct from cultural capital ? Was sociology so blind to these stakes ? Beyond the book's discussion, the paper questions the current trend to endlessly multiply “capitals” in all social spaces and interactions. It pleads for clearer theoretical distinctions between a/ four basic kinds of capitals, b/ their variations and “states”, c/ their combinations into a huge range of locally efficient but “molecular” capitals.