Contenu du sommaire : Les États d'Europe peuvent-ils éclater ?

The Dynamic of State Division within the European Union: Juridical Conundrum, Political Challenge
Would an independent Scotland, Catalonia or Flanders automatically be part of the European Union? There is no simple solution provided for this eventuality in the 1978 Vienna Convention, nor in prior international conventions, nor though strict application of European law, according to which each state would come under the standard accession procedure, and therefore would be subject to veto by other member states. The singular nature of the European Union and simple common sense call for a solution that is negotiated at every stage.

Belgium between Federalism, Confederalism and Separatism
The movement towards decentralization in Belgium has been going on for half a century. Political crises have been followed by state reforms. The last to date, in 2010-2011, brought in an unprecedented level of autonomy but did not modify the nature of Belgium's federalism. If another political crisis does arise in the wake of the spring 2014 elections, it is still unlikely that it will lead to Belgium breaking up. So, what is the solution to this impasse?

Catalonia's Path to Auto-determination
A majority of Catalans now appear to be in favor of the organization of the 2014 independence referendum. Beyond the current debate over fiscal arrangements, this trend points to Catalonia's centuries-old political and cultural struggle, and is also the result of the Spanish state's – government, Constitutional Court, etc. – unceasing propensity to encroach upon the various statuses gradually accorded to Catalonia over the years.

Scottish Nationalists' High Risk Bet: Independence or Nothing?
Scottish nationalism took advantage of Margaret Thatcher's and, more recently, Tony Blair's unpopularity to expand and develop. In 2007 the Scottish National Party (SNP) won the Scottish Parliament general election for the first time, and four years later, they won the absolute majority. If the “yes” vote has only a slim chance of winning the independence referendum in September 2014, the nationalists still believe they will be able to benefit from it by obtaining a larger transfer of power.

Distant Neighbors: The United States and South America
Relations between the United States and South America are characterized by a kind of “benign neglect”. There are three areas of particular interest: In terms of security, Washington's principal preoccupation is to do with drug trafficking. In the political arena, the United States is trying to promote democracy in regions characterized by populism. Finally, in economics, the United States is interested in promoting further bilateral free-trade agreements.

Brazil: Back to the Future?
After two decades of extensive reforms which brought about macroeconomic stability, economic growth and a clear reduction in inequality, Brazil appears to be revisiting its more hazardous economic policies. As for the popular mobilizations, aside from the occasional protests about living costs, they indicate a more general political malaise, which concerns both state function and the quality of Brazilian democracy.

Populism Gets Lucky: The Argentine Economy of the Kirchners (2003-2013)During the early 2000s, Argentina experienced the worst crisis in its history. In contrast, Nestor Kirchner's presidential term, followed by those of his wife, Cristina, were distinguished by swift economic recovery. However, this spectacular resurgence is just a façade. The Kirchners' macroeconomic populism has not brought about essential structural reforms and the first signs of waning are beginning to surface. Argentina's economy could well take another turn.

Drug Control Reform(s): South America at the Cutting Edge
South American states' traditional anti-narcotics policy, which is highly influenced by Washington and its prohibitionist doctrine, is facing increasing criticism. Several countries such as Bolivia, Uruguay and Colombia are attempting to introduce policy that is less focused on blanket repression. However, this new orientation poses problems with regard to relations with the United States and international conventions for the suppression of drug trafficking.

Salafists in Egyptian Politics
Egyptian Salafism really started to develop in the 1970s. It is comprised of groups of differing tendencies of which the most violent was responsible for the 1997 Luxor massacre. Following the 2011 revolution, several Salafist parties were created. The most visible, al-Nour, obtained more than a quarter of the vote. It is fighting for Sharia law to be the main source of Egypt's legislation. After the ousting of President Morsi, they surprised commentators by positioning themselves on the side of the new regime.

Libya 2011-2013: Reconfigurations of Radical Islam
The Libyan crisis is one part of a system of regional conflicts whose individual elements cannot be understood in isolation from one another. Armed groups circulate from one territory to another in zones juxtaposing Islamist sanctuaries, profiting numerous non-state actors, of which the Islamic movements constitute just one component. The Libyan territory plays a central role as a geographic epicenter and as a focal point for Islamic recruitment.

The Afghan Strategic Communication Challenge
Afghans and Westerners hold a negative image of the war in Afghanistan. NATO officials have drawn mixed assessment of their involvement here. The lack of clear strategy is especially detrimental. Other issues compound the problem such as the difficulty that comes with operating in a multinational context, the complexity of NATO's legal procedure, the poor comprehension of Afghan culture, the high turnover of staff and the paucity of feedback channels.

Indonesia: Non-Alignment and Chinese-American Competition
Since the mid-2000s, Indonesia has been courted by both China and the United States. In an effort to make the best of this unprecedented situation, the country's authorities have implemented a foreign policy based on both the multiplication of bilateral partnerships and the promotion of regional multilateralism. Under the notion of “dynamic balance”, this new doctrine seeks to update the foundations of Jakarta's foreign policy, particularly regarding non-alignment.