Contenu du sommaire : Apports des données de panel à l'analyse économique

A brief defense of panel data, by Brigitte Dormont. This article seeks to illustrate the contribution of panel data to production econometrics and the advantages and difficulties involved in their use. The examples clearly illustrate the uncertainties confronting conventional macro-econometrics: labor yields in employment functions, comparative employment flexibility in France and West Germany, measurement of capital-labor substitutability, the endogenization of technical progress, the role of profits in investment behavior, and the assessment of disequilibrium phenomena at the disaggregated level.

Interpreting the manufacturing-productivity slowdown during the second oil crisis: the lessons of a firm sample, by Gilbert Cette, Daniel Szpiro. From a sample of about 3,000 manufacturing firms, this study describes the factors affecting growth and productivity in French manufacturing from 1974 to 1984. Using a Solow production function, it seeks to interpret the sizable slowdown in growth observed in 1979- 1980. The slowdown is chiefly linked to a slower rise in the volume of production factors in intermediate goods and to a decrease in technical progress not embodied in capital goods. Embodied technical progress does not seem to have flagged, and the slight obsolescence of manufacturing industry equipment had little impact.

Shiftworking and corporate characteristics, by Gilbert Cette. Using balance-sheet data supplied by the Banque de France and field surveys conducted by the Ministry of Labor, this article analyzes the interdependence between the rate of production-factor utilization and other components of the production system. The use of shiftworking is structurally linked to the intensity of production methods. It provides a compatibility between narrow differences in working hours and wide gaps in equipment utilization time. Large firms tend to resort to shiftworking more than other firms, but the extent and intensity of the practice are independent of firm size.

Changes in profit margins in French manufacturing industry, 1980-1986, by Jean-Yves Chevallier, Frédéric Gagey, François Legendre. To assess the changes in profit margins (cf. Malinvaud "Theory of Employment Reconsidered") in French manufacturing industry since 1980, this article does not use an a priori classification, based on the industry or the firm size. Instead, the authors have taken an automatic classification of nearly 1,500 firms from a representative sample, arranged solely according to their profit margin. The resulting categories of firms may be regarded as typical examples of the dynamics of the profit margin from 1980 to 1986. The article then tries to characterize this typology, in order to get a better view of the link between growth rate and profit margin, and of the influence of the debt burden.

Changes in investment in France since 1979, by Jean-Yves Chevallier, François Legendre, Pierre Morin. Since the second oil crisis, it has become difficult to reproduce the investment curve in France accurately —either with the standard accelerator-profit model or with alternative models (such as those based on pure profits, profitability or disequilibria). This article discusses the difficulties in detail and stresses the contribution of studies based on panel data. In particular, these data enable analysts to compare the dynamics of the accelerator and profit effects, to assess the role of profitability, to test the impact of indebtedness and to evaluate the effectiveness of tax investment incentives.

Calculating employment in seven major Oecd countries, by Hélène Thouluc. Country panels may prove useful for analyzing differences between countries. This article tests the panel method on wage and employment functions of the main Oecd countries. But the wage-formation laws prove to be more country-specific than international. However, one can admit a degree of structural homogeneity among employment functions. This allows certain differences in national performance to be explained by differences in price movements.

Wage indexation: was there a break in 1982? by Pierre Blanchard, Patrick Sevestre. Has there been a change in the indexation of wages on prices in France since 1982? This study attempts to answer the question using data from the collective national wage agreements signed between 1970 and 1988 in eight industries. The findings highlight the importance of inflation expectations in the post- 1982 period, which have acted as a more powerful guideline for wage policy than actual recent inflation.

Microeconometric approaches to the French labor supply, by François Laisney. Few studies exist on labor-supply response to changes in the marginal wage rate or in the other components of personal income. Yet a detailed knowledge of this behavior is of great practical importance, for instance for anyone who wants to analyze —or reform— the tax and social-security systems. This article presents the theoretical foundations and empirical findings of research on the estimation of labor supply functions in France.

Some thoughts about measuring the impact of transfer payments on individual behavior: some reflexions, by Jean- Claude Ray. With transfer payments now reaching a level of some 1,300 billion francs, can we still assume that they produce no macroeconomic effect? Can the individual data now available (household surveys, social-security files) provide a better understanding of the impact of specific benefits on households behavior? This article is based on the studies carried out for the past seven years by a small team of researchers at the University of Nancy II. Their findings show the opportunities for analysis in this area. The author stresses both the difficulties involved and the value — for economic and social policy-making— of incorporating transfer payments into models of individual behavior.

The impact of compensation of the duration of unemployment, by Jean-Pierre Florens, Louis- André Gérard- Varet, Patrick Werquin. The theory of the search for employment warrants the construction of partial, reduced labor-market models to measure the impact of various factors on the duration of unemployment in France. This article aims to give an estimate of these factors using two sets of data. The first is a sample of individual data concerning the length of unemployment periods for people who were but no longer are unemployed; the second comprises data on incomplete spells of unemployment for people who still are unemployed. This article emphasies unemployment benefits analysis.

Is profit-sharing an incentive to work more? by Patrick Artus, François Legendre, Pierre Morin. This article presents three empirical studies that attempt to assess the impact of profit-sharing on labor productivity. An especially detailed account is given of the study conducted on French data. This study conducted on French data is more completely accounted for. The studies do not examine profit-sharing — as, for example, M. Weitzman does — from a macroeconomic point of view as an activity stabilizer. Rather, profit-sharing is analyzed microeconomically as a work incentive for employees. This approach fits in with theories of the efficiency wage. In particular, the article discusses the need for such collective incentives.