Contenu du sommaire : Études internationales

What is the Configuration of Cycles in the United States? A Traditional Dynamic Model, by Patrick Artus, François Lecointe. The "normal"confïguration of economic cycles has recently been under review in the United States. After examination of the behaviours or mechanisms causing cyclical fluctuations, we have derived a dynamic econometric model for the American economy. This makes it possible to determine the scope, periodicity and sources of American economic cycles, and thus to clarify current debate on what emergence from recession will be like.

Import and Export Functions: The Contribution of Recent Econometric Theory, by Stéphane Capet and Philippe Gudin de Vallerin. This article suggests manufactured-product import and export volume equations using the most recent econometric developments in non-stationary variables. When considering a VAR (auto-regressive vectorial) representation, the method draws on deductions suggested by economic theory and the causal links shown. Tightening effects on the supply have been introduced. The equations obtained provide better forecasting potential than those obtained using the Metric model, but gains in precision are offset by less steady variant properties.

How are Exchange Rates Set? by Agnès Bénassy. The article reviews current knowledge concerning the determination of exchange rates in a floating exchange rate system. The different theories are explained in order of increasing complexity from the uniform price law to the bubble theories. Empirical tests are then examined to show the traditional models' lack of empirical pertinence. The future should see the development of models combining a medium-term macroeconomic and structural approach (fundamental determinants) with an extremely short-term financial approach (bubbles and volatility).

Exchange Rate Variations, Macroeconomic Indicators and Direct American Investment in Developed Countries, by Jérôme Henry. Direct American investments in the leading OECD countries suffered particularly striking swings in the 1980s. The article uses annual American statistics covering the period from 1961 to 1989 to show first of all that these fluctuations are mainly due to capital gains on stocks linked to the dollar's exchange rate. Once this effect is taken into account, the econometric results serve to highlight two distinct independent and dependent market strategies. American investments can be linked alternately to local demand and the American economy's propensity to export.

The Disappearance of the German Current Account Surplus: An Econometric Analysis, by Éric Dubois. The considerable German current account surplus of the late 1980s became a deficit in the space of just two years. The econometric analysis made integrates recent developments in cointegration theory and shows that the appearance of this deficit can be largely put down to the usual deciding factors of business lag and losses in competitiveness caused by German reunification, but that, by favouring the emerging market of the new Lander, German exporters would seem to have partially sacrificed their traditional foreign markets.

The Enduring American Trade Deficit, by Yannick L'Horty and Kim Sébastien Pham. The United States trade deficit is the result of ten consecutive years of deficits. Its gradual decrease, which started in 1986, is now tailing off in the early 1990s. Two main deciding factors are traditionally put forward to explain movements in balances of trade: the business lag and price competitiveness. The contributions of these determining factors to the development of the American deficit since the beginning of the 1980s are analyzed and discussed.

France's Foreign Trade Since 1980, by Hervé Bonnaz and Olivier Paquier. The foreign constraint weighed heavy on growth during the 1980s. Economic policy actions helped to contain France's indebtedness in relation to other countries, but were not able to prevent the downturn in the manufacturing balance between 1984 and 1990. Conversely, the renewed balance in the foreign trade accounts in 1991 and 1992 was obtained by improving the manufacturing balance. German reunification and competitiveness gains have contributed to this recovery.