Contenu du sommaire

GEMINI-E3, A General National - International Economie, Energy and Environmental Equilibrium Model by Alain L. Bernard and Marc Vielle The three papers set out to present, in as educational a manner as possible, the findings of an experiment lasting over four years. The first theoretical and methodological paper gives as straightforward a presentation as possible of the main mechanisms at play in this type of model. These mechanisms derive particularly from substitution effects between goods and factors (targeted by the economic policies concerned) and international trade effects, which are more akin to income effects (transfers). A basic element of the economic analysis is the measurement of the cost of the policies, i.e. the loss of welfare to economic players who are both the source of economic activity and its main if not only beneficiary, i.e. the end user. The examples studied and the theoretical developments based on simple models clarify the basic concepts and identify the main factors accounting for the nature and extent of these economic costs. The second paper presents the model structure in detail and justifies the modeling choices made. It shows the formal complexity of this type of model - required for completeness and consistency - and its great conceptual simplicity. The model is used to describe markets, i.e. supply, demand and price balancing mechanisms, while ensuring that the income channel underlying the running of these markets is suitably reconciled in keeping with Walras's fundamental law of economics. The first 1995 version of the model was used in a number of cases and discussed in papers to conferences and seminars organised to evaluate national energy policies (the French nuclear power programme) and regional and international energy policies (the reduction in greenhouse effect emissions). The application presented in the third paper is of an international nature. It endeavours in particular to compare the economic costs of the different tax devices used to attain a given emissions reduction goal. It demonstrates and quantifies the potential extra costs provoked by a poor choice of tax instruments first at national and then at European level.

An Evaluation of the Importance of Expert Stock Price Expectations by Auguste Mpacko Priso What role do economic and financial experts' stock price expectations play? Can traders use these expectations as a benchmark? This paper sets out to provide some answers to these questions using the results of the Livingston survey. A causality study shows that expert nominal stock price expectations can be used to improve ordinary traders' price forecasts. However, expert forecasts do not provide enough information to improve stock yield and stock risk premium expectations, which are the variables used in portfoUo decisions. A study of the dynamics between expert stock price expectations and actual prices shows that expert expectations are formed on the basis of an error correction mechanism. Lastly, we show that stock prices change as if they were using expert expectations as a target.

Taxation, Public Assets and Growth: The Harmfulness of "short-term Hedonism" by Rieber Arsène We use an endogenous growth model to study the effect of fiscal policy on economic dynamics. We extend the Barro model (1990) to impose a purpose on public levies: the financing of infrastructures. The model shows that, via the choice of tax tools, the government is confronted with the following situation: the aim of maximising long-run dynamics leads to a slowdown in the convergence rate. Conversely, a government that subjects its fiscal policy to short-run adjustment concerns will steer the economy towards a sub-optimal equilibrium in the long run.

Economic Recovery in the Post-Communist Countries: Application of a Time Span Model by Ariane Tichit The fall of the communist system sent all the Central and East European and former USSR countries into deep recession. Although some of these economies have now recovered substantial growth, others are still not able to put a break on their downward slide. This paper determines the main factors behind these divergences by econometrically estimating how long the recessions have lasted. The findings show that, although the initial conditions at the time of the change of regime played a role, the elements essential to economic recovery were stabilisation, restructuring and free-market policies as well as the speed with which these policies were applied.

Estimation of a Hedonic Price Function for Wine from the Champagne Region by Olivier Gergaud This paper applies the hedonic price method to wine from Champagne. The data used are taken from experimental studies published in two French consumer magazines (50 millions de consommateurs and Que Choisir). Some 286 champagnes are described and evaluated. To analyse the link between champagne prices, quality and reputation, we estimate a hedonic price function (the first concerning a sparkling wine we know) followed by a jury grade equation and lastly a value-for-money equation.

The Pension System and Intergenerational Equity by Alexandra Tragaki Although the classic coverage of pension research is frequently concerned with long-run analyses and forecasts of the system's viability, there are fewer longitudinal studies made of past and future generations despite their specific interest. The main purpose of this paper is to examine the extent to which pension systems maintain intertemporal justice, taking equal account of the interests of the individuals regardless of their date of birth; if the system is always run on the basis of uniformity, reciprocity and equality over time. Public opinion is concerned about the assets used and the people who will never recoup the sum they have contributed and who distrust this "contract between generations". It remains to be seen the extent to which this reaction is justified.

Estimation of the Technical and Allocative Inefficiencies of Tunisian Commercial Banks: A Shadow Cost Frontier by Mohamed E. Chaffai This paper presents an econometric model based on an extension of a shadow cost function in order to estimate technical and allocative inefficiencies. The model is applied to a panel of Tunisian banks to measure the inefficiencies of each bank and how these inefficiencies change over time without making any strong assumptions about the technology used or the distribution of the inefficiency components in the model. Our findings show that allocative inefficiency increased over the 1980-1995 period, while technical inefficiency improved slightly at the end of the period.