Contenu du sommaire : Les mutations démographiques du Tiers monde

Recent evolution of fertility in the Third World, 1960-65/1980-85 This article briefly examines fertility trends in the developing world from 1960- 65 to 1980-85. It underscores the overall fertility decline in Asia and Latin America and stresses the fact that Africa south of the Sahara is the only major world region not affected by the fertility transition. Questions related to the interrelationships between fertility and its determinants are briefly examined. A review of the considerable effort made during the last two decades by numerous governments of Third World countries to curb their fertility is presented. Illustrations pertaining to the efforts aiming at distinguishing between the impact of modernization factors and population policy factors on fertility are also given.

Mortality in developing countries In life expectancy at birth, a strong difference is observed between developing countries as a whole and developed countries (56 as against 73 years), but the diversity within developing countries is even more pronounced. In some countries, the mean life-span is still under 40 years, whereas in others it has reached roughly the same level as in the developed countries. This diversity of health situations in the Third World countries is relatively recent: it is the result of the diverging trends observed over the last 30 years. It is true that this divergence is related to some extent to the level of economic development, but not closely so. The reduction of infant mortality has played a preponderant role, and in this field, more than all others, social, cultural and political factors are extremely important. The countries which have made most headway - Cuba, Costa Rica and above all, China - are those where health policy has been adapted to meet the basic needs of the population and integrated into an active policy of social and cultural development: those which opted, even before WHO, for the «primary health care» strategy.

Some aspects of the recent demographic evolution in the countries of the Middle East Over the past 25 or 30 years great progress has been made in the collection of demographic data in the Middle East. This has brought to light the fact that there has been a substantial decline in mortality which, coupled with the continuing high level of fertility in all the countries of the region, has resulted in an increased natural growth rate of 2.9 % per year, one of the highest growth rates in the world. The total population in the area has multiplied by 2.7 in the last thirty years, from 22 millions in 1955 to 59 millions in 1985. Some countries have experienced more rapid urbanization than others, resulting in an uneven distribution of population and with the greatest concentrations being in the major cities and more especially in the capitals. Since 1973 there has been an increase in intra-regional and international migration towards the oil-rich Gulf States, as well as an intensification of family grouping. The socio-economic impact of these changes and the resulting problems does not seem to have compromised the development in the region, partly due to the importance of the revenue from the oil producing countries.

The population of Kenya is increasing more rapidly than in any other country of the world. The annual growth rate is estimated to be around 4% by the early 1980s. The fertility level is exceptionally high and the age structure is extremely young. Nevertheless, there are marked regional variations of demographic indicators within the country.

Evolution of mortality and fertility in Ivory Coast. Demographic changes during the last twenty years and their spatial distributions are analyzed from results of recent surveys and former studies. A high mortality level is still reported however indicating a tendency to a marked decrease: life expectancy at birth has gained 13 years but important disparities between rural areas and Abidjan have persisted. An average of 7 children per woman is actually accounted, indicating that fertility rather tends to increase than to decrease while greatly varying according to levels of education and residential areas.

Fertility in Mexico, emergence of a population problem and modes of its settlement. Despite overall social and economic changes faced by the Mexican society over the last fifty years, the fertility rate did not decrease significantly. This issue was addressed by state agencies as a population problem and led to the implementation of birth-control policies during the 70's . At last, the authors provide supportive evidence of efficiency of these policies.

Recent fertility decline in Brazil In spite of the growth of Brazilian population, fertility rate have been decreasing during the last two decades. In the process, the pill has played an important part since 1965. Significant fertility differences are analyzed according to socio-economic classes and regional spaces. The strong reduction of mortality and fertility originated important changes in Brazilian population growth. This situation is mainly due to the development of medical sciences and not to the improvement of life quality. The patterns of general and infant mortality, birth rate, life expectancy and internal migration may also be related to economic development and income distribution which greatly vary within Brazilian society and space.