Contenu du sommaire : Justice pénale internationale : un bilan

The modern principle of international criminal justice goes back to Nuremburg and its highly specific historical context. The 1990s marks a decade of renaissance, for former-Yugoslavia and Rwanda in particular. The Rome Statute marked a major breakthrough by establishing a permanent court. This development came under criticism and the Statute was not ratified by the majority of members of the Security Council. In its 70th year, the idea of international criminal justice is still young and remains full of potential.

Established to hold trials for crimes committed during the Yugoslav wars in the 1990s, the ICTY has vacillated between its punitive purpose and writing the history of this period. By and large, it has failed to prosecute for crimes committed in Kosovo at the end of the decade. Finally, a string of acquittals led to questions being raised about the very responsibility held by the ICTY. The Court's ultimate failure thwarts regional reconciliation in favor of a political course towards European integration.

The extraordinary nature of the 1994 massacres in Rwanda gave rise to the need for “complete justice”, operating judicial processes on several levels. The ICTR applies international criminal law under charges of genocide. Newly developed Gacaca courts, demonstrate the need to bring about justice in close very close proximity, with those involved in events, and on the sites where they took place. Exercising universal jurisdiction, French courts are also playing a role in the process.

The establishment of the International Criminal Court has made it possible for the victim to be fully recognized in international trials, with the assertion of the right to compensation for acts of genocide, crimes against humanity, and war crimes. As the Court is pronouncing the first sentences, the question remains not only of whether it is possible to repair the irreparable, but how to go about attempting the task.

From 2014 to 2015, the price of oil fell. The price drop is explained by several factors: a significant increase of oil production in the United States, the resumption of Libyan and Iraqi exports, the possible lifting of sanctions against Iran, and slowing growth in developing countries. The situation is having negative effects on oil-producing countries, but the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) remains divided as to its stance on the situation, making it all the more difficult to predict future trends in oil prices.

The presidential primaries have begun, and have quickly become a target for much criticism. On the Republican side, the proliferation of candidates indicates rejection of the “establishment”, despite a certain weakening of the Tea Party movement. For the Democrats, Hillary Clinton's candidacy seems to be weakening, without there being an obvious rival. Opinion in America appears to be highly divided between the rural, white conservatives and the more progressive, urban, coastal populations.

Recent debates in Germany about the future of the country's security and foreign policy have aroused interest abroad, especially in France. The development of Germany's discourse on its role on the international scene has led certain parties to hope for change in the country's strategic position. However there is no paradigmatic change to be seen in Germany, and the “new” foreign and security policy is in fact very much inscribed in a line of continuity.

For a long time Ethiopia was the only African country to escape colonization, but over recent decades the country has suffered a string of economic crises, a violent revolution, and Eritrea's secession. The current government launched a massive development plan which is starting to show sign of improvement. There are both positive and negative analyses to be heard, but Ethiopia could well take on a new leadership role in Africa, at a regional or even continental level.

European solidarity seems to be breaking down just as Europe is becoming a lesser factor in American strategy and alongside the proliferation of divergent poles affirming the differences of interests on the international scene. In this context the cost of Europe's condition-less rallying behind American protection is increasing significantly, as the Ukrainian crisis demonstrated. Autonomy with regard to security has become a geopolitical necessity for Europeans.

China has become one of the main personnel contributors for UN peace keeping operations, and the principal contributor among the permanent members of the Security Council. This demonstrates China's desire to participate in the development of international governance and its principles, as well as confirming its diplomatic choices, in Africa in particular. Beijing is also trying to elaborate a positive image of its military modernization.

The financial system has become too complex to be controlled at state level. States are subject to larger market systems due to their budget constraints (the need of finance or savings gluts). However, the most powerful players – the United States and China – are seeking to direct the markets in a way that benefits their interests. The battle for control of the big banking and financial institutions promises to be a particularly bitter one.

Over the last few years both the United States and Russia seem to have changed their conception of how to deploy force. From America there has been increased reliance on the private sector, allied on-ground action and “leadership from behind”. From Russia we have seen greater emphasis on special actions, intelligence, information wars, and even nuclear posturing. Following the escalation to total war in the twentieth century, these strategic choices probably bear witness to a return to notions of “limited war”.

To date, a few thousand Europeans have left Europe to join jihadi fighters in Syria and Iraq. Several hundred of them have already returned. To deal with this phenomenon, some countries have developed radicalization prevention and de-radicalization programs. Although it is still difficult to assess the effectiveness of these programs, the German, British and Danish examples at least provide certain lessons which could be very useful for France.