Contenu du sommaire : Décompositions démocratiques

Trump's victory in the 2016 presidential election is an expression of the crisis of American democracy. The New York businessman's anti-elite, anti-system, and anti-immigration discourse seduced a lot of white, less-educated voters in deindustrialized states. His campaign was characterized by an abundance of outrageous, even dishonest, claims. The United States has fully entered an era of “post-truth politics”.

European institutions are regularly accused of a “deficit of democracy”. However, from the 1990s, successive treaties have implemented different instruments to tackle this deficit. The powers of the European Parliament have been considerably reinforced. However, the crisis in the European Union is severe. Populist parties have reaped the benefit of double disaffection: towards Europe on the one hand, and democracy on the other.

The draw of authoritarianism and souverainism for certain central European states has its foundations in the idea of a return to a mythical past, which in practice, paradoxically, has a lot in common with Communist-era practices. These States' relationships with the media and with the opposition are further indications of a slip away from a state of democratic rights. These regimes are heading for stalemate. Only civil societies and the European Union can tackle this dangerous dynamic which goes beyond these countries' borders.

From 2011, significant citizen demonstrations have denounced austerity measures and dysfunctional aspects of representative democracy. Movements such as the anti-austerity Indignados and Occupy call for implementation of new forms of democracy. However, in order that they endure and develop, these movements have to get involved, at least partially, in the traditional political arena. The rise of Syriza in Greece and Podemos in Spain are two such examples.

Russia's power comes, in part, from the West's errors and illusions in the wake of the Cold War. Its demonstrations of economic and military power are, to a great extent, just a show. Neither a leader, nor a model in itself, Russia needs western nations. Likewise, westerns nations cannot ignore Moscow's clout in certain strategic zones around the world. Russia needs to be considered an unavoidable power in a world in which power balances are seriously shifting.

Moscow seeks to challenge and undermine the liberal, United States-dominated international order. President Putin increasingly indulges in demonstrations of force in an attempt to divide the West. He is in favour of “conservative revolution” and supports populist movements in Europe. However, Russia is weaker than it might appear. The Russian economy is faltering and its demographic structure is problematic. Western capitals will have to stand strong against Russia's assaults.

The new American administration's protectionist tendencies need to be taken seriously. It is in Europe's interest to preserve the accomplishments brought about in multilateral trade, in particular through adapting WTO practices: conserving “inclusive” global economic agreements, maintaining the balance of norms and management of agreements that have been put in place. For this, Europe must improve institutional efficiency and political cohesion, in short, take some initiative.

China's New Silk Road strategy targets broad connectivity across Eurasia. It is a geographic project with economic scope and serious political implications. Looking to open up part of China's territory, the strategy's aim is to overtake maritime globalization through development of land-based circulation. Russians and Europeans are, among other things, concerned by the effects of this strategy, which several decisions have already started to make concrete.

Up to the end of the 1990s, the economic discourse of political Islam in Turkey was characterized by its anti-liberalism. By accepting the market economy and positioning itself as spokesperson for the “Anatolian Tigers”, the AKP embodies the ideological break from its Islamist forefathers. However, the heterogeneity of its electoral base means the party must maintain discursive ambivalence on the EU and globalization.

For a few years now, multilateral trade and climate negotiations have held different goals in sight. While the COP21 in Paris is regarded as an historic success, progress in trade has been less brilliant. Beyond their respective issues – which in terms of the climate seems to be more urgent – there are some interesting differences in terms of the modes of negotiation and the degree of pressure weighing on parties.

As the permanent Arctic ice pack melts, media and scientific discourse surrounding the strategic interest of the Northwest passage has been developing. Questions around the status of the Northwest passage waters raise that of the strait's inclusion or non-inclusion in Canada's sovereign maritime zone. Inter-state relations on the topic remain cordial, and there is no strong litigation between Canada and other countries surrounding sovereignty of this Arctic route.

American defense planning has been developed over more than forty years around an original structure: the Office of Net Assessment (ONA). This organization, directed by Andrew Marshall until 2015, has only included around one hundred direct collaborators since its beginning. However, it has contributed to the development of a whole ecosystem of strategic research. Its analyses, founded on Net Assessment's multidisciplinary method, have made important impacts, sometimes reaching far beyond the United States.

In the second half of the 20th century, Kissinger evokes the fundamental choices underpinning American diplomacy. But where do his own principal reference points come from? Both Metternich and his vision of a international conservative order, and Bismarck's democratic relativism each have their place. What relevance does Kissinger's vision hold today in a world characterized by diversification of players on the international scene and the breakdown of inter-state order?