Contenu du sommaire : ASEAN : 50 ans d'une expérience singulière

ASEAN groups together disparate states and populations. The level of diversity means that forming a common identity has been a challenge, which is made even more difficult because ASEAN is often regarded as an elitist organization whose activities hardly benefit the middle and lower classes. However, leaders in the region are aware of these problems and are looking to tackle them through concrete action. Their initiatives seem to be producing good results, particularly among young people.

When it was created 50 years ago, ASEAN's economic ambitions were rather modest. However, up until 1992 it progressively integrated the economies of its member states. The integration process became institutionalized in the period that followed. The ASEAN Economic Community follows principles that are very dif-ferent from those which governed the European construction and is being called upon to play a driving role in structuring the Asia-Pacific region.

ASEAN strives to deal with security problems in an inclusive and flexible way. In 2003 it established a Security Community which has since expanded through several institutions and partnerships. Cooperative action between member states is developing, but for now multilateral structures remain unrealized. Further, it is unclear whether its underlying flexibility will be up to the task in a time of shifting geopolitical structures and Beijing's demonstrations of power.

The concept of “centrality” of ASEAN emerged around ten years ago at a time when various rival projects were threatening the organization. Certain measures were taken to strengthen the association but this doesn't guarantee its survival. The main problems it faces have to do with lack of interest among local popula-tions and serious under-funding. A new treaty of political partnership would give ASEAN a second wind.

ASEAN adopted a human rights declaration in 2012. In 2016, the Malaysian Prime Minister publicly criticized the human rights situation in Burma. The policies of the government of Myanmar towards ethnic and religious minorities have led to refugee flows and to challenges for the states hosting refugees. Regional human rights commitment is thus a strategy adopted by these states to manage refugee flows. If civil society groups use ASEAN's human rights commitment well, it might lead to real improvements on the ground.

Causes for the 2008-2009 economic and financial crisis in the Euro zone were inade-quately analyzed. As a consequence, solutions that were adopted have turned out to be counter-productive. Public deficits have increased, as have divisions between northern and southern countries in Europe. To stimulate sustainable growth in the European Union, there is a need for greater solidarity between states and for the establishment of a program for public investment.

The crisis of sovereign debt revealed the imbalances and dysfunctional practices within the Euro zone. While countries on the periphery could be stabilized, fears have now spread to central countries which, because of the size of their economies, involve more widespread risk across the rest of Europe. In order to regain growth, the new French government will have to seriously reduce public spending and promote the competitiveness of its businesses.

The July 2016 putsch was a deeply traumatic event, but it also gave the regime the opportunity to increase internal repression and try to get its project for constitutional reform passed, giving the President ultimate power, without any real checks or controls. The radicalization of the AKP has consequences that are internal in nature but also economic and diplomatic, particularly concerning the country's disposition towards the European Union.

The Islamic State is now in retreat in Iraq and Syria. It has, however, secured followers through a multitude of branches and support networks in many countries. Although these groups differ in their powers and capacities, they present a new challenge within an uncertain international context. This chal-lenge could increase with the retreat of IS in the Near East and with the return of jihadists to their countries. Regions of South and Southeast Asia are particularly at risk.

Since Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014, the peninsula's demographics have changed. Thousands have left and new arrivals – Ukrainians fleeing conflict in the east of their country and Russians – have moved in. Tourism, which was an impor-tant revenue source, has collapsed. Many military sites are under construction, even including a bridge linking Crimea to the Caucasus. In Russia, the military operation has been a boon to Vladimir Putin's popularity.

Local conflicts in Africa are more frequent and are causing more damage. They are most often analyzed by international actors only through the prism of conflicts and instabilities between states. New strategic and ad hoc approaches should examine their complexity, the mixture of tradition and modernity implicated in them, and their relationships at national and international levels. These approaches should be equipped to integrate their military and civilian dimensions.

The reasons for the result of the UK's June 2016 referendum reveal nothing we didn't already know. They have to do with the development of British society and political debates particular to the UK. This points to a fundamental difference in the conception of the nature and objective of the European construction. The United Kingdom hasn't been the naughty student of the European class as it has often been described. However, its heritage and culture mean that it favors an idea of a Europe in which sovereignty remains within the states.

Italy is facing deep economic crisis. Despite enforcing the austerity measures recommended by European authorities, growth is low and unemployment is rising. Privatizations have meant that flagship industries are now in foreign hands. The state not longer plays its regulating role and is struggling to keep corruption and tax fraud in check. The situation is all the more acute because it is accompanied by political crisis.