Contenu du sommaire : Arctique : une exploration stratégique

Global warming is opening new perspectives for the Arctic. Opportunities are emerging in the areas of maritime transport and natural resources exploration. Though territorial disputes in the region might persist, no stakeholder is interested in escalating tensions. After all, the stability of the region is crucial to its economic development. The tensions between Russia and the Arctic States of NATO must, therefore, be contained.

The Arctic Council was created in 1996. It provides a forum for the eight countries with territory north of the Arctic Circle to dialogue and develop cooperation projects. Conceived as a flexible structure oriented toward scientific collaboration, it has progressively evolved toward greater institutionalisation and even helps defuse certain tensions. The Council now addresses more political issues, and has also adopted legally binding rules.

Over the last decade, Russia's interest in the Arctic has increased. Commercial projects have emerged, especially in the energy and maritime transport sectors. This region – which is home to a part of Russia's nuclear arsenal – is also important for Moscow on the military front. Even if tensions with other Arctic States cannot be ruled out, Russia has every interest in maintaining a degree of stability that is propitious to economic development.

“Saudiness” continues to be difficult to define; it is both a very specific kind of political debate and the profound fear of uncontrollable implosion. This is the context for the problematic relationship with Qatar, who for Riyadh represents the ideology of the Muslim Brotherhood that goes against its own convictions. The change in the order of royal succession means skipping one generation, and it looks like an Arab Spring will not touch Riyadh any time soon.

With its intervention in Yemen, its relations with Iran, and the isolation of Qatar, Saudi Arabia seems to affirm itself as a diplomatic and religious disruptive state in the Middle East. The religious diplomacy of Wahhabism plays a central role in Riyadh's strategy. It is an information tool and a true lever of influence that aims at turning the opinions of the decision-makers of major democracies in the country's favour.

The Gulf crisis that began in June 2017 reflects age-old tensions between Qatar and its neighbours. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are especially critical of Doha for its support for the Muslim Brotherhood and its reconciliation with Tehran. This crisis has embarrassed the Western countries who cooperate with all the parties involved. Turkey's commitment toward Qatar makes military escalation highly unlikely. No one is interested in the situation getting any worse.

Angela Merkel is gaining thanks to her international standing and the weakness of her Social-Democrat opponent. The latter has poorly managed a series of regional elections, and the Chancellor is well-placed to win the September elections. But she must think about preparing for an eventual retirement from politics. Even forging a new coalition will not be easy, with the refugee crisis having pushed her closest allies, and part of the public opinion, toward the right.

The African National Congress (ANC), which has governed South Africa since the end of apartheid, is in decline. The party has been rattled by cases of corruption involving the president Jacob Zuma and has lost the trust of part of its electorate. Contested from the left and the right, it has been defeated in the 2016 municipal elections in numerous big cities. The future of the ANC will be determined in part at its national conference in December 2017, where what happens after Zuma will be decided.

Over the course of the next few years, France will have to renew its nuclear arsenal to ensure that it remains a credible deterrent in the eyes of its potential enemies. This update must occur within an unfavourable context: the strategic environment, marked by the multiplication of Jihadi fronts, has deteriorated, and budgetary discipline is the order of the day. Sacrificing nuclear deterrence at the altar of the fight against terrorism would, however, be a fatal error.

In December 2016, the British government announced its return to “the East of Suez”. However, beyond such an announcement, London's ability to be a geopolitical player in the region remains limited. London is making no bones about trade relations being its priority, with China in particular and to the possible detriment of India. Its soft power, especially in the field of education, nonetheless, allows it to maintain its presence irrespective of local power plays.

The Affordable Care Act (ACA), better known as Obamacare, is an ambitious reform of the American healthcare system. With its entry into force in 2010, it aimed to expand access to health insurance, on one hand, and to reorganise healthcare services, on the other. Twenty-five million Americans have thus been able to get health insurance. However, the evaluation of this reform is mixed. Donald Trump has initiated a process to repeal the ACA. But even he is not sure to reach his goal.

With the enlargements of the European Union in 2004 and 2007, the borders of the EU moved eastward. Within the framework of the European Neighbourhood Policy and then the Eastern Partnership, the EU has tried to nurture good relations with its neighbours and to help them evolve into liberal democracies. Russia considers this approach a threat to its interests and is exerting pressure on the former Soviet republics to keep them within its sphere of influence.

Most developing countries depend on imports to feed their population. Liberal policies driven by international financial organisations have crippled traditional farming and have allowed large multinational companies to reap substantial profits. However, southern countries must, once again, take things into their own hands and implement proactive policies that allow them to achieve food sovereignty and food security.