Contenu du sommaire

Clinton and Arab-Israeli Peace, by William B. Quandt The Clinton Administration in its first term developed a modest approach to Arab-Israeli peacemaking that seemed to work as long as Rabin and Peres were in power. Netanyahu's election created a new, more difficult situation in the region, and Clinton and his team have not been able to devise a successful strategy. The key problem is that Clinton, for domestic political reasons, and perhaps from conviction as well, does not want to impose an American plan on the Israelis. And even if he were so inclined, many in Congress would be opposed. As Clinton enters the waning years of his presidency — a process accelerated by the scandals of early 1998 -, American policy is unlikely to do much to revive the ailing Arab-Israeli peace process.

Where is Irak Heading?, by Nahla Chahal During the seven years that have elapsed since the Gulf war, the Iraqi regime has been confronted with a situation for which it was not prepared. Apart from the oil income loss that was destroying the foundations of its power, its hands have been tied by a complex System of multiple sanctions imposed by the Security Council resolutions. How has the Iraqi regime survived and what forms of adjustment has it chosen ? What changes has this situation entailed ? Where is Irak heading?

Drive and Impulse : Euro-Mediterranean Policy as a Challenge to Society, by Bassma Kodmani-Darwish Euro-Mediterranean partnership is a challenge to society because the Barcelona process can only be successful if it acquires legitimacy in public opinion. This project is arousing great hopes in the South but also great fears. Its rationale of integration into the globalization dynamic implies far-reaching changes in these countries' structures, changes that are liable to fuel Islamic dissidence. Europe must therefore develop an Arabo-Muslim policy that is both external and internal, because the North-South borders are also internal, identity-related and cultural borders that run across European societies. The long-term challenge is the creation of an area under joint North-South responsibility. This is the only alternative to the Arab world's temptation to turn in on itself, submit or revolt.

Free Trade Versus Political Liberalization: Partnership and Stability in the Mediterranean Basin, by Eberhard Kienle Euro-Mediterranean partnership involves many risks for the prosperity and stability of southern Mediterranean countries, even though that is what it aims to improve. Being centred on external and internal economie liberalization, it guarantees neither an equitable distribution of resources nor growth in countries whose competitiveness is extremely limited. Even if they contribute to growth, the economie policies envisaged will not further the political liberalization that is necessary for genuine stability in the countries in question. Only an upgraded and tactfully conducted political dialogue will help to achieve these goals.

The Mediterranean, an Issue that Deserves a Bolder Policy, by Francis Ghiles The European Union will not take up the challenge of a renewed Mediterranean policy if the only criterion it uses is the signing of free-trade agreements with the countries of the Mediterranean basin. If it wishes to bond the countries on the southern shore to Europe and form an area of shared prosperity, it will have to devise a financial instrument equal to the challenges — a guarantee fund for both private and public investments.

France and NATO After the Cold War, by Gilles Andréani France's move towards a rapprochement with NATO, which was hastened by président Chirac ― and his will to reform the Alliance in Europe's favour ― has been suspended with the Franco-American quarrel over the southern command. The United States has preferred to give priority to reasserting its leadership and to eastward expansion at the expense or restabilizing the heart of the Alliance. However, the fact that Europe is a minor actor in the area of security remains an anomaly. France, without whom any reform seems hard to envisage, will again be required to promote a new division of tasks and responsibilities within NATO, but she will do so only if she is convinced of the United States' willing-ness and the Europeans' support.

Russia-Belorussia-CIS: Integration Efforts and Disintegration Trends, by Olga Alexandrova and Heinz Timmermann The Russian-Belorussian union established on April 2, 1997 is a response to a deep-seated désire for reunification of the « brother nations » which were separated in 1991. Although it exists on paper, the treaty cannot take shape because the ambitions of the respective presidents cannot coincide and ― apart from the personalities — because the Russian and Belorussian elites will hear none of it or only subject to certain conditions; finally, because the price to be paid in the economie domain is high for Russia and cornes at a particularly bad time, when she is having great difficulty in restoring her own growth. The potential divergences are numerous and nobody would like Russia to take the risk of having Loukatchenko at the head of the Union. The impossible application of the treaty of Union merely exacerbates the crisis within the CIS and consolidates the aspirations of each Member State to enjoy greater independence.

Islam in Russia, a Danger to the Kremlin?, by Irène Semenoff-Tian-Chansky Islam, as an integral part of Russian history, has proved to be extremely dynamic since the fall of communism. Re-islamization has taken various forms, among which we can distinguish two models — Tatarstan and Chechenia — that can be linked to Russia's traditional reformism and Soufism, as well as to Wah-habism of foreign origin. The development of Islam in Russia depends on economie and strategie factors, which gives her some assets. But the country does not seem to be taking sufficient advantage of them for want of an overall policy.

Bulgaria - Between Cultural Arguments and Political Practice, by Maria Todorova As far as integration into the European club is concerned, Westerners give priority to central European countries and tend to exclude those in the Balkans. The latter are assimilated by a « specific doctrine » — Balkanism ― to another civilization and described as an unstable area on account of their ethnic heterogeneity. Now central Europe does not really exist as a separate entity, as competition for membership of the European institutions soon took precedence over cooperation. The Balkan countries are also claiming a European identity and deserve just as much to be integrated into Europe. Despite Bulgaria's economie difficulties and the slow pace of its reforms, it is a country in which the democratie process is now firmly established ― amid total indifférence from the western countries.

Pluralism in Hong Kong and Chinese Tolerance, by Michael Yahuda Beijing has displayed greater tolerance for the exercise of autonomy in Hong Kong than was expected because it serves Beijing's wider interests with regard to Taiwan and to using Hong Kong as a key contributor to economie reform and economie development in China. Contrary to the fears of many Chinese officials, Hong Kong has not been used for subversive purposes by hostile foreign forces and its recovery has strengthened the leadership position of Jiang Zemin. Beijing is confident in the high level people it selectea to serve as the executive government and does not appear to be troubled by the prospect that HK may serve as a model for political reform in China. In fact it seeks to « learn » from HK about the rule of law, professionalism in the civil service, and how to regulate a market economy. As a result people in HK have unexpected opportunities to define their own political identity and already there are signs or new political cleavages emerging now that the colonial era is over.

Renoving Stabex, by Paul Collier, Patrick Guillaumont, Sylviane Guillau-mont Jeanneney and Jan Gunning This paper considers the rationale and possible modalities of a reform of « Stabex », the scheme set up by the Lomé Conventions to stabilize (agricultural) export proceeds. Such a reform could take place when the Convention between the ACP countries and the European Union is renewed. The problem is to reconcile the system's two initial principles: automatic functioning swift Stabex transfers and the agricultural aims ― two principles which have not been satisfied properly in recent years owing to increasing payment time-lags, the fungible nature of the allocations and a Dutch disease syndrome. The proposed solutions are to plan in advance for an agreement between the ACP State and the European Commission on rules for swift use of Stabex funds, based on (price or crop) insurance or (price) stabilization schemes managed outside the government budget.