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Reflections on the Theory of International Relations, by Thierry de Montbrial The field of international relations is concerned mainly with public policies (in all their aspects) and their coordination on a global scale. The author starts out from a narrow définition of international relations — like those of R. Aron and K. Waltz — and successively expands it to accommodate reality more accurately. He feels that this approach, which is "realist" in origin, is preferable to one that results from too broad a definition of the discipline. But he adopts this remark by S.M. Walt: "Realism does not explain every-thing and an enlightened leader would be well advised to keep in mind the existence of other paradigms". The analysis of the international System is broadly based on the very general notion of security, which is akin to that of public good and the concept of identity, which broadly gives rise to that of national interest. The author shows how the problem of the security of an individual political entity meshes with that of the stability of the international System as a whole. He also shows how objectives and strategies may often be connected with a perception of the necessity of acting in the face of possible crises. The second part is devoted mainly to an examination of epistemological issues. In the author's view, a theory worthy of the name must have a certain predictive power and be verifiable both by reasoning and by experimental critique. It can only ever be partial. Ideological intellectual constructs are all too often called "theory", although they may in some cases have the merit of inspiring more limited and more operational theories, and of providing material for the philosophy of history.

1979-1989: From Kabul to Kosovo, by André Fontaine Reacting to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, the Americans pick Reagan, who deliberately accelerates the Arms race, in order to put the USSR into the ropes. Appointed n°l in 1985, Gorbachov has no other alternative than to look for « detente » with the West. His refusal to corne to the rescue of the East German regime leads to the successive fall of the Berlin Wall and of the « socialist » regimes of Eastern and Central Europe, to the end of the Cold War and to the reunification of Germany which stays in a NATO now open to the East. When Europe has trouble in trying to go beyond « euro », the US « sole superpower » is more and more led to meddle in a growing number of conflicts, and even as in Iraq and Kosovo, to use force with its allies.

United States 1979-1999: Scope and Limits of Power, by François Heisbourg Between 1979 and 1999, the sources and the scale of US power are not as fundamentally different as is suggested by "declinist" analysis in the late seventies on the one hand or recent statements about "hyperpower" on the other. The current breadth and scale of US pre-eminence is a consequence of the disappearance of the Soviet rival, not of a basic change in the nature of US power. What is surprising in the current exercise of American power is its heavy reliance on military tools in the framework of "noloss" operations, in contrast to the availability of a broad range of other tools of influence and power: in the age of Internet, Washington emphasizes a latter-day version of gunboat diplomacy, with a checkered record in terms of achieving the desired political results. Furthermore, US security policy which used to be structured by the requirements of the Cold War, has become essentially reactive. What coherence it has is increasingly the result of the force of habit rather than of an overarching set of guiding principles: this enhances the vulnerabilty of long standing US commitments in Europe, and more ominously in a dangerously unstable Asia.

From Bonn to Berlin. From One Foreign Policy to Another?, by Hans Stark Although the course of the FRG's foreign policy since 1979 has been punc-tuated by many upheavals, it has nevertheless been characterized by a degree of continuity. Between 1979 and 1989 the FRG continued the foreign policy initiated in the 1950s and 1960s and focused on three objectives: cementing its place in the West, building Europe and normalizing its relations with East Germany (Ostpolitik). Since 1989 Germany has wanted to complete the European Union and has asserted itself as one of the major European powers.

End-of-Century Russia, by Georges Sokoloff In his review of the events that marked twenty years of Soviet and Russian history, Georges Sokoloff particularly emphasizes the reforms accomplished by Mikhail Gorbachev and Boris Yeltsin. While not omitting to analyse the mistakes made by both men and the blatant deficiencies of present-day Russian society, the author shows the benefits of a reform policy based on a fundamental value: freedom; he ends with a vibrant appeal in favour of a resumption of international aid.

Japan 1979-1999: the End of Insularity, by Karoline Postel-Vinay Japan's position in the world has changed considerably over the past 20 years. By 1979 she had already acquired great economie power, which could be felt internationally. But her political influence remained weak. During the 1980s a transformation took place which became quite visible by the beginning of the next decade. The Nakasone government's policy of internationalization was followed ― or sometimes anticipated ― by the growing openness of Japanese society itself to the outside world. The end of the Cold War upset the established international order and the Japanese political scene as well. The ties of interdependence between Japan and the rest of the world, particularly her integration into Eastern Asia, have further strengthened since then.

China: the Endless Transition, by François Godement China in 1999 has inherited both the reforms initiated in 1979 and the political freeze of 1989. The boom in living standards and the increase in physical forms of freedom have not led to an irreversible change in ternis of institutions: this remains cyclical, consisting of leaps forward followed by retreats, and is strongly influenced by the debates at the top of a Leninist system. The confrontation with the hyper-West as represented — in the eyes of the Chinese — by the United States is an important factor in this debate, but in their hearts China's leaders themselves are torn between choosing modernization - which can transform the country - and withdrawal, which can préserve their status. The 1997 Asian crisis crystallized nationalist reservations and the priority given to economie security as opposed to the dynamic advantages of unrestricted openness to the outside world. The debate about joining the WTO and its fluctuations symbolize in 1999 this hesitation at the top.

The Building of Europe (1979-1999), by Robert Toulemon The last 20 years fit neatly between the implementation of the EMS in March 1979 and the entry into force of the euro on January 1, 1999. The fall of the Berlin Wall on November 9, 1989 eut this period into two and marked a caesura in European history. However, that décisive event ― which eased progress towards economie and monetary union — has not allowed genuine progress towards political union, nor have the crises in ex-Yugoslavia. The future of Europe remains uncertain at the end of this century.

The Serbs' Misfortune, by Daniel Vernet The conflicting territorial claims of the States born of the collapse of the Ottoman Empire caused the Balkan wars at the beginning of the century. In the 1990s it was the dream of a "Greater Serbia" — cherished by Slobodan Milosevic - that plunged the Serb nation and the entire region into war and misfortune. In the Balkans, where the same soil is proclaimed sacred by various peoples, where the minorities are often intermingled, no State can lay claim to ethnie "purity" without triggering massive exoduses and conflicts with its neighbours. The future does not lie in large, homogeneous States but in civilized organization of good neighbourly relations and in respect for minorities' rights — both of which can only be ensured today by the international community.

1979-1999: The Middle East in Search of an Unlikely Peace, by Bernard Botiveau The last 20 years have been dominated by three major changes in the Arab Middle East: a global crisis of internai legitimacy among the Arab regimes that resulted from the nationalist period; a war situation in the Gulf and the launch of a peace process in Palestine. While each of these issues has its own logic, they are nonetheless closely interrelated, and their interaction is hardly a reason for optimism. An equitable settlement of the injustice done to the Palestinians would help to render the current balance less dangerous.

Two Decades of Financial Globalization, by Pierre Jacquet The past twenty years have witnessed a spectacular increase in capital mobi-lity thanks to the development of financial innovations and to the deregulation and liberalization of financial markets. But the road toward liberalization has been particularly bumpy, from the debt crisis in the early 1980s to the Asian, Russian and Brazilian débâcles at the end of the 1990s. This articles surveys seven of these crises and draws some lessons. Financial globalization has become irreversible and creates strong incentives for developing countries to liberalize their financial markets. The process of liberalization, however, must be accompanied by efforts at better supervision and regulation. Much remains to be learned in terms of crisis prevention and crisis management. Finally recent crises point to the need to improve exchange rate policies in developing countries and to learn how to manage exchange rate flexibility

Twenty Years of Disarmament Negotiations and Arms Control, by Jean Klein Over the past twenty years, disarmament negotiations and arms control have been marked by an alternation of successes and setbacks, and the agreements concluded tended mainly to stabilize the balance of deterrence between the two nuclear protagonists, to reduce conventional forces in the area extending from the Atlantic to the Urals and to regulate, or even ban, chemical wea-pons and anti-personnel mines. Until the collapse of the bipolar world order, it was mainly a matter of organizing the strategie status quo and of reducing the risks of surprise attack. Since then some breakthroughs have been achieved with a view to genuine disarmament and some measures have been taken to consolidate the regime of non-proliferation of nuclear weapons. However, the obstacles that have arisen along this road and the paralysis of the multilateral negotiations in Geneva bode ill for the contribution of disarmament to the establishment of a new security order.

Twenty Years of Development the Changing Faces of Neo-Liberalism by Fran oise Nicolas The heterogeneity of the developing countries has been increasing constantly for about twenty years While an increase in wealth can be observed for the East Asian and Latin American countries other regions of the world parti cularly sub-Saharan Africa are languishing in poverty and non-development These disparities along with the economic and financial crises of the late 1990s are calling into question the economic theories and development poli cies launched in the 1980s The Mexican and Asian crises show that openness and liberalization are no panacea and that they involve risks the management of which should involve both national economies and the entire internatio nal community The non-development of sub-Saharan Africa proves the fai lure of aid policies and is thus an incentive to find new ways of integrating these countries into the world economy

Humanity, the 20th Century's Last "Great Illusion"?, by Philippe Moreau Defarges Humanity is one of the major concepts to have become accepted in the international political and legal arena over the past twenty years (1979-1999). Two factors support this idea: the identification of resources belonging to the whole of humanity (in particular, the deepsea beds) and problems that can only be solved by involving the great majority, if not all, of humanity (so-called global issues: climate change, deterioration of the ozone layer, etc.); the search for universal moral standards, brought about by crimes committed on a new scale (extermination of ethnie groups because of what they are: Armenians, Jews, Kosovars, etc. But is there really anything new? Is humanity in the process of organizing itself into a responsible, entity based on solidarity ? It is by no means certain, as representatives remain torn between a dream of unity and the multifarious claims of diversity. Globalization is not the end of history ; reconciliation of humanity is still like a horizon : each step that humanity thinks will bring it closer makes it recede.

One Hundred Years of Prosperity, by Rudiger Dornbusch Despite the Great Depression and the two world wars, the 20th century has been a century of great prosperity and one of unprecedented growth of productivity and per-capita GDP, as can be seen in particular by the economie progress made by a number of — notably Asian ― developing countries. The end of this century is marked by globalization, which is the great challenge owing to the reservations it causes, by the return of "sound currency" and by a calling into question of state interventionism and economists' conservatism. The most notable fear about globalization is the very real lack of control over the world economy. In fact, today's world does not need more régulation but rather a good dose of growth policies.