Contenu du sommaire : Avenir de la guerre et ses mutations

Our current military interventions are mainly outside home territory, and demonstrate exemplary will among European nations. Achieving the conditions for success is far from easy and requires patience, an overall approach and strong conviction of the need to act—thus involving the entire nation.

Grey zones, especially maritime ones, are fertile territory for hybrid confrontations between players that are often anonymous. Indeed the sea is ideal for such confrontations that de facto destabilise and undermine our sovereignty. We need to assign adequate assets in order to act in these new areas of potential conflict.

War is part of history. To teach the history of war requires an understanding not only of the past but also the present. Warfare more generally, though considerably changed in nature, contributes dramatically to modern times even if we no longer talk of total war. Nevertheless, study of the phenomenon that is war remains essential today.

War remains an intangible human reality, which compels us to prepare for it with clarity. This means we need to consider a major symmetrical conflict in which the battle of wills remains the decisive element. It implies also the need to possess factors that offer superiority by preparing for the war of the future and not for that of today.

The armed conflict warfare of the twentieth century has had its day. New forms of conflict are bringing with them profound changes, particularly in less regulated, less tangible areas. Hence a need for renewed strategic reflection that favours diverse approaches over the long term and which takes into consideration future sovereignty.

Digitisation has transformed the handling of information by saturating networks to the detriment of the ability to analyse and discriminate. The military chief has to be able both to understand the flood of data and to take decisions. He needs character, experience and boldness, and must show courage.

Ground-air defence as operated by the Air Force is undergoing major change. Entry into service of Mamba systems and the coordination provided by the CMD3D (Centre de Management de la Défense dans la 3e Dimension—Air defence management centre) are offering improved service to air operations and contributing to the integrated defence of the force, thus helping to respond to the challenges of future wars.

Future urban combat will necessitate increased use of robots on the ground. They will allow a broader field of possibilities whilst saving soldiers' lives. The rules of engagement of these new devices have to be drawn up within an ethical framework, consideration of which is well advanced.

Water is vital for humanity. Nevertheless, it is hard to demonstrate that access to water has been the main cause of conflict. That said, control of this resource presents a continual challenge and contributes to growing geopolitical tension. Asia and Africa are areas likely to see renewed conflict provoked by water.

Damage to the environment during a conflict is a potential source of sanction with regard to developments in the law of armed conflict. It is a requirement that is increasingly affecting the various players, especially given the pressure of international public opinion. This development will be seen as imposing political and ethical responsibility.

The FMES (Fondation méditerranéenne d'études stratégiques—Mediterranean foundation of strategic studies) in Toulon is a think tank whose primary objective is the strategic analysis of matters concerning the Mediterranean. The maritime dimension is essential to this analysis and encourages multi-disciplinary approaches to enrich the debate and broaden the training on offer through liaison with the IHEDN (the Institute for higher national defence studies).

Any thought of European defence naturally requires consideration of the various threats and of how they interact with regard to the countries involved. Different countries have different perceptions and their consequences in terms of defence needs are far from uniform. The risk is that some states might make a considerable investment, whereas others would remain reluctant to take on the responsibility.

China is setting in place a social credit system aimed at evaluating each Chinese citizen individually on his or her level of the obedience and conformity sought by the Chinese communist party. The system could well rely on data handled and collected through artificial intelligence. Odd though it might seem, public opinion would appear to be in favour of this tool for social engineering.

After years of mutual mistrust the republics of Central Asia formed from the collapse of the USSR have begun prudent rapprochement. Security matters have been delegated to Moscow—delighted to be able to play a role again—and economic matters to Beijing, whose financial weight is substantial. On the other hand, regional integration seems to have been forgotten.

Although the Second World War saw the end of the battleship it would be somewhat superficial to consider this type of warship as a concept flawed from the outset. The battleship developed continuously throughout its fifty years of use and, more than the aircraft carrier, it was radar that changed naval engagement forever by its ability to detect. It was thereafter that the battleship was replaced by the aircraft carrier, able to deliver fire over a far greater range.

In September 1939, Poland was wiped from the map in just a few weeks as a result both of the effectiveness of the Nazi war machine and of the astonishing inability of the Polish high command to adapt to the situation. It was unfortunate that France failed to draw lessons from that campaign.