Contenu du sommaire : La puissance américaine : assise et évolutions stratégiques

With the American election just a few months away, the assessment of Trump's foreign policy is damning at a time when the Covid-19 pandemic has plunged the world into destabilisation. The absence of American leadership is compelling Europeans to pull together, and yet one wonders if they have the will for it in the face of an increasingly opaque China.

Donald Trump's style of governance is brutal but reflects American thinking, which has always advocated some form of isolationism. Europeans must take a new look at their future, applying pragmatism and innovation to create a new basis for discussion in order to face tomorrow's trials and tribulations.

The United States and China are in direct economic and technological confrontation. In contrast to the previous decade, Beijing centres its ambition on power and does not accept the principles of openness of democracies. The latter need to take account of what unites them if they are to respond to Beijing's challenge.

The current pandemic has exposed a rupture between Trump's United States and Europe. The latter needs to bear in mind that Washington no longer affords any importance to the transatlantic relationship. Hence there is a crying need for Europeans to face up to their responsibilities by acting together, and no longer to expect solutions to come from elsewhere.

The United States has failed in its desire to impose regime change in the Middle East, despite some powers continuing to show little regard for their populations. We must remain prudent and resist the temptation to enforce change on some of the atrocious political systems in this complex and fragile region, but instead to find other ways.

It seems paradoxical, but since the Kremlin had a preference for the Republicans, Moscow was delighted at the election of Donald Trump. Yet because relationships between Trump and Putin were not good, relations deteriorated. Russia needs now to break away from its practice of confrontation and change the image it gives to the rest of the world.

Russo-American relations are notable for their mistrust and for the difficulty in re-establishing dialogue on arms control. Moscow's ambivalence and Washington's mistrust serve to increase antagonism: to create the opening that is required, they need to re-establish dialogue on matters of common interest.

Digital wars are with us, and the United States is a favoured target. In the face of multi-faceted attacks, responses are aimed both at deterring adversaries and at direct action. US soft power in this field is a factor of superiority, but also of vulnerability given that the ‘weapons' are being used against the very people who designed them.

Japan's strategic situation is far from simple: it is an ally of the United States and a commercial partner of China, and yet those two are competitors. The United States' security guarantee remains essential for Tokyo in the face of Beijing's hegemonic ambitions in the region. Given this context, Japan is looking with interest at its relationship with France and Europe.

Many predict a declining America, and yet despite its political weaknesses resulting from the Republican-Democrat split, the United States possesses advantages, among which its look to the future is its DNA. Hence the need for Europe to preserve this imperfect and irksome, yet essential link in a world that has lost its balance.

The armed forces are committed on national territory in many different ways and according to needs. A balance has to be maintained in the use of assets and human resources to preserve freedom of action and to act in support of internal security forces whilst retaining the military difference.

The crisis of the pandemic has highlighted failings in European solidarity, but little by little Europe has taken note of its dependencies and weaknesses. The coming recession will demand response and concerted action. In the face of threats and challenges, the EU must consider defence as one of its essential responsibilities.

The Covid-19 crisis is having an impact in the Mediterranean area, weakening countries on the northern shore whilst those in the south remain less vulnerable, albeit they too are experiencing frustrations. The withdrawal of the traditional powers is leaving an open field for China and Turkey. Europe must intensify its dialogue if it is not to be outflanked.

The current pandemic should lead us to reflect on the CBRN threat, and on biological risks in particular. It would seem sensible to anticipate this type of danger and to acquire the appropriate assets in order to avoid finding ourselves without resources for protection. Such effort should be made through international cooperation, since it concerns the health of the entire population.

In the face of the pandemic, the Belgian armed forces have made their contribution to the health system. Compared with that used in France, the vocabulary has been less war-like in this complex and politically divided country. For all that, the results have been the same regarding the country's capacity for resilience—and they will need future examination.

The co-existence of ethnic groups and these countries has been undermined by rivalry since independence in 1949. Pakistan is held in a vice between India and Afghanistan, and suffers further interaction from Iran and China. This region—which hosts nuclear weapons, let it not be forgotten—is a source of crisis: any loss of control would have consequences well beyond the protagonists in southern Asia themselves.

In two June days, two battleships—the pride of the Navy, one almost completed in Brest and the other under construction in Saint-Nazaire—managed to leave France and escape the Germans. They still needed work to complete them, if only to repair the damage caused by the British in 1940.

Operation Dynamo was a tactical and organisational success, built on the 24 May 1940 pause imposed by the Führer on the inexorable progression of the Wehrmacht towards the English Channel. Dunkirk allowed the British to maintain the air and naval superiority that was to prove essential in the weeks that followed, during the Battle of Britain.