Contenu du sommaire : Dossier: EUROFRAME 2019 Conference

The fight against dropping out of university has gathered a large consensus among the various political and university actors. However the problem is represented, the need for a change in the conditions of student support is often mentioned, which is backed up by the low success rate at the end of the first year of the university licence degree and the high level of dropouts. However, the way the reference base is constructed, that is to say, representing the problem according to basic beliefs as well as the norms sanctioning behaviour, then of presenting this publicly, mixes different situations: the definitive abandonment of studies, career changes and the temporary interruption of studies. So who is really dropping out of college? Considering that the publicization of a problem does not depend in any way on its intrinsic nature, but on the representations made by the actors, the purpose of the article is twofold. First it traces the cognitive and narrative work of constructing the problem in its collective dimension. After having defined the criteria for quantifying the problem, it then presents the results of a questionnaire survey conducted in the Aquitaine region among students in general and those leaving without a diploma in particular. The survey gives rise to two results. The first puts the magnitude of the problem into perspective. The second emphasizes the procedural nature of the problem.

The results of the June 2016 referendum in favour of the UK leaving the EU opened a period of huge economic and political uncertainty in the UK, and in the EU27. A large number of official and academic analyses have been published that address the economic impact of different modalities of Brexit. Section 1 analyses possible models for the future UK-EU relationship, from remaining in the single market and in the customs union, to a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) or world trade organization (WTO) rules. Section 1 also discusses the future of UK trade regulations (tariff and non-tariff barriers, trade agreements) and the various channels through which Brexit could have an impact on the UK economy (trade, foreign direct investment (FDI), migration, productivity, fiscal policy). The UK must make a trade-off between ensuring access to the EU market and increasing its regulatory autonomy. Section 2 surveys studies released on the impacts of Brexit, over short- and long-term horizons, under different scenarios, from a soft Brexit to a hard Brexit and a no deal scenario. These studies provide very different results depending on the methods they use and the assumptions they adopt on the future relationship between the UK and the EU27, mainly on how they view the effects of trade openness and regulations on productivity, in level as in growth rate. Studies using gravity models and computable general equilibrium models generally find negative but small effects on UK GDP. Some studies increase these effects by adding the negative impact of a less open UK economy on labour productivity growth, even if Brexiteers want to open the UK to non-EU economies. Others believe that a liberalisation shock could boost output growth, but the UK is already a very liberal economy. The impact of Brexit on the GDP of the EU27 countries is on average 4 to 5 times smaller than on UK GDP, although some countries (Ireland in particular) are more affected. In the shorter term, uncertainty about Brexit has a negative effect on investment and exports, which is partly offset by lower interest rates and exchange rates.`np pagenum="044"/bJEL codes: F10

After decades of expansion and deepening integration in Europe, the referendum in the United Kingdom in June 2016 to leave the European Union was an unprecedented event. Amongst the many issues to be negotiated in unravelling membership, the withdrawal process has been dominated by the implications for the island of Ireland. Northern Ireland has been to the forefront as the location of the new border between the EU and a non-member state. While much of the focus has been on the political implications, this paper looks at the potential effects of Brexit on Ireland and Northern Ireland from an economic perspective. The current patterns of cross-border trade are examined and the potential impacts of Brexit discussed, depending on the extent to which it changes the economic relationship between the UK and EU and hence in the immediate neighbourhood of Ireland and Northern Ireland.

There are large and long-lasting negative effects on output from recurrent financial crises in market economies. Policy makers need to know if these financial crises are endogenous and subject to policy interventions or are exogenous events like earthquakes. We survey the literature about the links between credit growth and crises over the last 130 years. We then go on to look at the determinants of financial crises both narrowly and broadly defined in market economies, stressing the roles of bank capital, available on book liquidity, property price bubbles and current account deficits. We look at the role of credit growth, which is often seen as the main link between the macroeconomy and crises, and stress that it is largely absent. We look at the role of the core factors discussed above in market economies from 1980 to 2017. We suggest that crises are largely unrelated to credit developments but are influenced by banking sector behaviour. We conclude that policy makers need to contain banking excesses, not constrain the macroeconomy by directly reducing bank lending.