Contenu du sommaire : Brexit, le malheur de rompre

UK-EU Relations after Brexit: Why Breaking Up Is Hard to Do`/titreb
Despite the posturing, both the United Kingdom and the European Union are trying to reach a deal. However, London's cliff-edge strategy and Brussels' control of the agenda and progress of the negotiations could result in an “any deal is better than no deal”. A last-minute “Australian” or “Canadian”-style trade deal would have severe economic repercussions for the United Kingdom, in the context of a Brexit that threatens the political system and even the United Kingdom's unity.

The British view of the United Kingdom's relationships with the world refers to both its geography and history as an imperial power. However, Brexit sheds harsh light on shifts in the British position: illusions about American goodwill; dependency on European standards without being able to influence them; and limited means of outside influence. The European Union and the United Kingdom need to find ways for new cooperation, particularly in the security field.

The return of the competition between powers and the decline of British economic and military power call into question London's traditional stance of following Washington. The United Kingdom no longer has sufficient influence with the United States, neither to obtain a preferential trade deal, nor in strategic matters. In view of the inevitable decline in bilateral relations, London could only regain its diplomatic and strategic influence in a rebalanced Atlantic Alliance.

Defense issues were not fully incorporated into the Brexit negotiations. However, the shift in American strategic priorities leaves London with little hope of an equal special relationship. France's return to a “Gaullist” concept of a counterweight could, on the other hand, pave the way for a new partnership, one that would only be fully effective in the context of a rebalanced and more-“Europeanized” alliance.

The 2016 referendum results did not reflect a specifically English populism or cultural exoticism. At the time, British opinion was in tune with European views critical of the European Union. Non-membership of the Euro zone guaranteed separation without too severe an effect. This separation was accompanied by a strong attachment to national decision-making and ongoing detachment from the European project, which was seen simply as an economic relationship.

The Brexit referendum opened up a rift in the country, confirmed by the 2019 elections, despite the Conservative victory. The central government and the different regions of the United Kingdom did not really engage in dialogue during the negotiations with the EU. The momentum of the outburst of dissatisfaction is clearly intensifying in Scotland; in Ireland the issue of unification has been raised again, and even in Wales as well. The political system is in upheaval and the country's cohesion is directly called into question.

Turkey is adopting an increasingly hostile stance towards Western countries. Its activities in the eastern Mediterranean and in Libya demonstrate this. However, Ankara's aggression should not be overstated. For several years, Turkey has been emerging as a medium power in search of recognition that is seeking to diversify its partnerships. At the same time, it has no interest in entering into open conflict with the West More over, it would not have the resources to do so.

France and the EU in the Mediterranean: Caught between a Systematic Approach and Reality`/titrebFrance and Turkey disagree on the regional crises (Libya and Syria) in the Mediterranean and the boundaries of territorial waters between Athens and Ankara. In addition to these differences, is France able to implement a strategy that goes beyond the failures of the major diplomatic approaches of the last two decades (Barcelona Process and UfM - Union for the Mediterranean)? And will the European Union, which seems set on speaking with a common voice, facilitate with moving from systematic aspirations to tangible cooperation?

The COVID-19 pandemic has struck Africa less than expected. The experience of previous epidemics and the age pyramid certainly had an impact, as did the responsiveness of all actors: governments, civil society, regional organizations, etc. The economic and financial effects of the pandemic are no less daunting. International assistance is needed, but experience in managing this crisis could help redefine relations between African countries and foreign actors.

Latin American governments have not responded consistently to the COVID-19 pandemic. Two extreme cases are Jair Bolsonaro's Brazil, which is stuck in denial, and Alberto Fernandez's Argentina, which opted for lockdown measures relatively early on. The virus has hit vulnerable countries and societies that will emerge from the crisis even weaker. The coming major recession is likely to increase already considerable inequality and heighten social tensions.

In the future, the development of African agriculture will be at the heart of the survival of a continent that is undergoing significant population growth. More generally, this development is necessary to counter global problems: environmental, health, migration, security, etc. The models proposed by the West are no longer the only ones under consideration, but in any case, France should focus on this essential issue to give impetus to a new European action.

The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) came into effect half a century ago and was indefinitely extended 25 years ago. It was against this double anniversary background that the Review Conference was to be held in spring 2020. It was postponed because of the health crisis and is now expected to take place in August 2021. While many countries are challenging the NPT, the scenario of a new failure in negotiations – after the setback of 2015 – seems likely.

India's Russia policy changed significantly after the Cold War. It is determined by India's dependency on the Russian defense industry, by its energy needs, and even more so by the fear that Russia, driven by its antagonism with the United States, might fall under the Chinese sphere of influence. The asymmetry of power between India, China and Russia, and the strategic dynamics between Beijing and Washington, nevertheless, intensify convergence between Beijing and Moscow.