Contenu du sommaire : Guerre en Ukraine : un changement de monde ?

The war in Ukraine has revived discussion about the Washington-Beijing-Moscow triangle and about Europe's place in geopolitical power struggles. Aspects of the Korean War—the relative importance of the theaters, the risks of escalation, ideological warfare, shifting alliances, moves toward rearmament, internal debate in the United States, etc.—can help to evaluate the changing relations between the three actors. The lessons that Washington and Beijing draw from the conflict will be central to the debate, particularly with regard to Taiwan.

The war in Ukraine has increased global food insecurity. Russia and Ukraine are both significant producers and exporters of agricultural products, particularly cereals. Moreover, the conflict has arisen in an already difficult context, following several years of disruption in the food sector caused by aggressive Chinese policies, climate change, and the Covid-19 pandemic.

After the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Western countries applied various sanction packages to Moscow. One of these measures—disconnecting the SWIFT interbank communication system—has been described as a “financial nuclear weapon”. It is still difficult to measure in detail the impact of these sanctions, but it does seem that a course has been set toward the gradual creation of a “financial iron curtain” between Russia and the West.

The war in Ukraine confirms the arrival of a new nuclear age. Vladimir Putin has on several occasions threatened to use nuclear weapons. In this context, it is essential to rethink the notion of deterrence and counter Russian use of “aggressive sanctuarization”. The fight against nuclear proliferation must also be a priority.

The omnipresent nature of social networks and satellite imaging services has given rise to a form of overt information gathering (Open-Source Intelligence, OSINT). Once the exclusive sphere of government agencies, this activity has spread, and the conflict in Ukraine has taken the phenomenon to a new level. This study of the early months of the war shows how it has fostered a growing professionalism in the use of OSINT tools and methods by highly motivated members of the public, and how these communities have influenced the course of the war.

When Ursula von der Leyen became head of the European Commission, she expressed her hope that the institution would take on a more “geopolitical” dimension. The full implications of that phrase have become clear in light of the war in Ukraine. Now more than ever, the European Union has to act in its own defense and to protect its own sovereignty. In other words, it must become a genuine geopolitical power and find its place among a throng of competitors and adversaries.

The war in Ukraine has been a rude awakening for Berlin. The military had been problematic, and Germany had let its armed forces crumble, preferring to believe that economic links were enough to maintain harmonious Russo-German relations. Chancellor Scholz's recent moves to rebuild Germany's defenses are stunning, but they must be a long-term commitment and form part of a strategic global vision of Germany's role and of European military needs.

From the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Beijing has adopted an outward posture of neutrality while in fact supporting Moscow. Chinese and Russian leaders praise the strength of relations between their countries. However, Russia is moving toward a position of dependence on China. Beyond its public pronouncements, Beijing refuses to engage in the Ukrainian conflict and is exercising restraint. This caution is clearly linked to China's weakened international position.

The varying and contradictory usages of the concept of sovereignty, which, beyond its political and legal definition, is acquiring an increasingly pronounced civilizational dimension, are emblematic of the radicalization of Vladimir Putin's regime and of his revisionism. The Russian president divides the world into sovereign states and colonies. He accuses the West of expansionism and makes it clear that Russia's frontiers may be enlarged.

In the space of a decade, Brazil has changed from an emerging power—combining economic growth, democratic renewal, and international ambitions—to a country in crisis, governed by a populist president. In October 2022, the electorate will have to choose between two candidates: Jair Bolsonaro and Lula, who embody radically different political stances. The election will take place amid concerns about corruption, the militarization of the public sphere, and the environment.

The twentieth Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), planned for the fall of 2022, is expected to be a demonstration of immobilism. It is likely that Xi Jinping will be returned to power and start a third term as leader, circumstances that prompt criticism of the current rules of succession. The CCP is an aging and increasingly opaque organization in which the cult of the leader limits internal discussion, a situation that casts doubt on the party's ability to adapt and survive in the long term.

Japan's public debt has quintupled since 1980 and now exceeds 250 percent of GDP. This is a far higher level than in all other OECD countries, but the lowering of interest rates has halved the cost of servicing this debt. At the moment Japan's debt, which is essentially domestic, appears to be sustainable and does not seem to place the country's economy at imminent risk.

For years, Saudi Arabia has been seeking ways to counter Iranian influence in Lebanon. So far, Riyadh's efforts have hardly been crowned with success, and the influence of Hezbollah, Tehran's principal ally in Lebanon, has only increased. The legislative elections in May 2022 produced a mixed picture for the Saudis. The pro-Iranian camp lost its majority, but still succeeded in getting its candidate elected as speaker of the Lebanese Parliament. There is renewed risk of institutional paralysis in the country.

Calls for the return of items of cultural significance removed during the colonial period took off as African countries became independent. However, they had little impact until the early 2010s. Since then, restitution of cultural goods has been increasing. A number of organizations from civil society, based in both Europe and Africa, are using modern communications techniques to gain media attention and to apply pressure to European governments.