Contenu du sommaire : 24 février 2022, un an après… (2/2)

The war in Ukraine is a clear demonstration that the world is more divided than ever. The European Union and NATO have a duty to react even though Western ethics are being called into question. This new world order should encourage France to recover its power and influence.

The war in Ukraine has revived the concept of a war economy, one which mobilises new resources and better-performing procurement processes. The armed forces' support service ( SCA—Service du commissariat des armées) is able to play a major role in responding to future needs by drawing upon its wide range of expertise.

In spite of its aerospace power, Russia has been unable to achieve air superiority. Ukraine's ground-based air defence (GBAD) has been relatively effective, compelling Moscow to revise its strategy. There are many lessons to be learned which justify the need for new capabilities, among which the massive use of drones.

Since the beginning of the Russian invasion, nuclear rhetoric has been stirred up by Kremlin propaganda, increasing Western anxiety over the possible use of atomic weapons. Such language has nevertheless been largely counter-productive, particularly since the West has shown restraint.

Taking advantage of the development of social networks, propaganda and conspiracy theories are beginning to weaken our democratic societies. Russia has well understood the interest in manipulating Western public opinion with a dialogue that distorts reality in order to support openly-declared political objectives.

Turkey maintains close links with Ukraine—in particular in its exportation of arms, including Bayraktar drones. At the same time Ankara is trying hard to play the role of mediator with Moscow, to a certain extent effectively. The earthquake of 6 February 2023 nevertheless risks putting the brake on these diplomatic initiatives.

Age-old Swiss neutrality has long allowed Berne to avoid having to take sides, yet the war in Ukraine is weakening this diplomatic position. Switzerland is now having to consider a change in its status and to accept new ways of exercising its foreign policy.

In the face of a growing Russian threat, traditionally neutral Sweden has made the decision to seek rapid membership of NATO. Finland, too, has requested to join. Their membership would allow greater security of the Scandinavian region with regard to Moscow's ambitions.

Blinded by a Tsar believing he is restoring a past order, Vladimir Putin's Russia is getting entrenched into the war without even realising it. This headlong rush is lifting the veil on the intrinsic weakness of a state in which lies and duplicity are the operating rules. Is Russia a new barbarian ?

Our overseas territories are a major asset, yet sadly too often neglected. Their economy remains under administration and is poorly managed in spite of true potential. An excessively rigid institutional framework needs to be revised in order to depart from the status quo, given that these lands have a genuine capability for influence.

Standards define our environment, be it civilian or military. Given that, it is the job of the Defence standardisation centre ( CND—Centre de normalisation de défense) to define and propose the standardisation structure to be followed by our forces, including that established by NATO STANAGs. The CND contributes to coordinating activities essential to ensuring operational effectiveness.

Game theory, the mathematical modelling of decision-making, contributes directly to tactical and strategic thought processes. Modelling of possible choices offers support to the military commander'sdecision process yet without becoming the sole criterion of appreciation of the operational situation.

Game theory was developed from the 1940s and has considerably evolved through the use of new statistical tools which allow complex situations to be better understood. This opens up possibilities for further development for using the theory in strategic analysis and future environments.

Even in these days of social networks, war reporters remain essential for bringing out the reality of war. The risks they run are real and many among them have lost their lives whilst on mission, such as the legendary Robert Capa. Reporting war remains essential in the face of disinformation.

Central Asia is an area of interest for the major powers that surround it. As the United States generally withdraws, Turkey, Russia and China are showing geopolitical ambitions ; Iran, too. The activism of these countries is evidence of the growing multi-polarity of a new and chaotic world order.

The command structure for conducting an operation is decisive in ensuring its effectiveness. Poor division of responsibilities has always weakened the operational chain of command, increasing the risk of failure. Here, a few historical precedents illustrate the importance of a single point of command in charge of a theatre of commitment.

Peru is experiencing pronounced and virtually permanent political and institutional instability, with six Presidents since 2016. This crisis is having a social impact both domestically and regionally, in a highly turbulent Latin America that suffered dramatically from the Covid-19 health crisis.