Contenu du sommaire : L'Europe à la croisée des chemins

Artificial intelligence is a major weapon in the information war being waged to ideological ends, in particular by China and Russia. Constant progress in AI is opening up new ways of undermining our societies, which are very open to freedom of information and which risk offering an adversary free rein to destabilise us.

Russia is employing all the elements of hybrid warfare to destabilise its adversaries—Europeans in particular. Using its cyberattack capabilities, Moscow is instituting disinformation activity and manipulation of public opinion. Greater vigilance is needed in the face of growing threats.

Cognitive warfare (Cog
War) is a reality and is today an acknowledged mode of action in a crisis. Through CogWar, the Wagner Private Military Company (PMC) destabilised French positions in Africa. It is therefore important to study these new modes of action, henceforth indissociable from modern conflict.

The development of Private Military Companies (PMC) is a geopolitical reality. Through the use of the Wagner method, Russia has boosted its influence in Africa to the detriment of France in particular, and China and Turkey are developing their own styles of PMC. Paradoxically, Europe is somewhat reserved regarding the subject and yet it could offer an alternative and better defence of European interests.

Europe is lagging in AI matters, having suffered accumulated delays when compared with the US and Chinese giants. The situation has created dependence for European countries and a risk to the defence of their fundamental interests: it would seem that Europeans lack the means to remain competitive in an international market dominated by the United States and China.

In triggering the war against Ukraine, Russia has imperilled the peace of the whole of Europe. There cannot be any negotiation without a complete review of the international security architecture, which means Russia will have to cease its arm-wrestling with the West if it seeks genuine, credible peace.

Cyber security has become a rapidly-growing challenge in the face of ever-greater numbers of threats and cyber attacks. Hence there is a need to organise effective material, methods and structures to counter the risks. The scope of organisations such as the Agence nationale de la sécurité des systèmes d'information (Anssi) and the Commission nationale de l'informatique et des libertés (Cnil) is being broadened, to involve a greater number of responsibilities and players.

The Russian orthodox Church in Ukraine remains under Russian control through the patriarchate of Moscow, which gives total support to Vladimir Putin's regime in return for colossal advantages. Kyiv's desire is therefore to sever ties with the Russian Church, by favouring an autocephalous, completely independent Ukrainian Church.

The implementation of artificial intelligence within a military structure must rely on a coherent plan, backed up by an agile and reactive leadership. Such integration of AI also requires the establishment of an ethical culture which is developed and shared by all those involved.

The Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) are generally governed according to rules set by the military bureaucracy. Nevertheless, agility and reactivity are needed when facing unconventional situations during a crisis. The LAF have learned to adapt - notably at the time of the explosion in the port of Beirut in 2020 and during the economic crisis which followed.

A study of the manager-worker relationship offers the opportunity to understand the interactions created within an organisation. Fear of risk is an important element which conditions relationships in a hierarchical group. One dimension stands out: the shared mutual trust that is essential to the smooth operation of the unit.

The French Navy (Marine nationale) is a combat navy designed to be committed to crisis zones. The 2024-2030 Military Programming Law reinforces the quality of the Navy whilst maintaining its operational coherence. The format will nevertheless need to be increased from 2030: that requires a well established, high-performance and innovative DITB such as exists today in Brittany.

There is a need today to consider a strategic, French-manned, national merchant fleet, especially since France has world-class shipowners, such as CMA-CGM and Bourbon. The ships are one aspect, but there are also those who sail in them: a coherent strategy needs to be defined which, to guarantee its effectiveness, includes the personnel dimension.

Submarines are major strategic assets, capable of undertaking a wide range of missions. There is lively international competition between builders and, despite the AUKUS setback, France is reaping the benefits of the Suffren class SSN programme. We have not heard the last of the submarine.

Undersea cables are essential to the operation of Internet and hence to our daily life. They have become part of basic infrastructure, the threats to which are no longer hypothetical. We should consider the risk of a major severance, if only to be fully aware of the technical difficulties in operating at great depth and on the vast network of connections.

The Indo-Pacific region is the new centre of gravity of the world, and France has established a place in it through developing fruitful partnerships and cooperation. The French Navy and our DITB are essential assets for developing our presence and influence, whilst maintaining the coherence of the 2024-2030 Military Programming Law.

The war waged by Russia against Ukraine goes against the principles of both international law and morality. Nevertheless, after nearly two and a half years of conflict the way out of the crisis has to be a matter of realism. The difficulty for Ukraine is to find some diplomatic solution that would offer a way out that suits its interests.

General Lagarde's reforms led to an organisation of major units, Organisation 77, giving three Army corps and their subordinate divisions. Together with the entry into service of massive amounts of new equipment, including VAB, AMX-10 and 155 AU-F1, this organisational model was a high point for our land forces, whose command and logistics capabilities afforded options for dynamic manoeuvre in the face of the Soviet threat.

There are some books that merit consideration as milestones in strategic thought: this new work by Professor Olivier Schmitt is one. It is at once a historical treatise, a sociological essay on military institutions and an analysis of the dynamics engendered by the phenomenon of war. The ability to cope with these challenges will determine who holds power in the future.