Contenu du sommaire

The Morning-After Dépression in the Arab Orient, by Ghassan Salamé As oil prices are plummeting, the problems masked by this god of artificial prosperity are now reappearing forcefully. Oil revenues no longer relieve violence, misery, and other reasons of despair, which cannot be eradicated by religions faith alone. The Arab Orient is now vulnérable and unable to end its internal conflicts or those with the outside world. Hope will reappear (also) if the West can change its policies and if Europe can favor stronger ties with the Arabs.

Qaddafi : Yesterday, To-Day and To-Morrow, par Judith Miller The American raid on Libya has temporarily garnered public support for Qaddafi and his regime throughout the Arab world and Africa. But most analysts see this as a short term effect of the raid. Arab and African leaders remain deeply suspicious of the ecclectic colonel and his underlying motives. The mistrust him. Apart from Sudan and Tunisia, Libya seems unlikely to make further spectacular inroads in Africa or the Mahgreb in the near future. The constraints for Qaddafi lie not in so much in American and French opposition to his regime, but in the collapse of the world price of oil. Qaddafi, whose power and influence are rooted in his country's oil wealth, may hâve far more pressing concerns at home.

Ebb and Flow in Egypt, 1981-1985, by Gilles Kepel Since his access to power and in reaction to the events of 1981, Président Moubarak has tried to avoid the mobilization of Egypt's civilians against the State, by islamist groups. In fact, the Islamist movement has declined in the past five years despite the persistence of militant groups. Their initiatives have not been successful: the 1984 legislative elections, the pressures on the State to enforce the shari'a and the popular uprising of February 1986 has remained movement devoid of ideology and on which Islamist groups have had no control.

Ideology, and the State in Post-Colonial Muslim Societies, by Nikki R. Keddie. For the author, the profile of countries with strong Islamist movements nearly always includes the following : the country should have had one or more nationalist governments which tried to unify the country by relying more on nationalist governments which tried to unify the country by relying more on national than Islamic ideology. It should have experienced rapid economie development and dislocations, which have brought rapid urbanization and visibly differential treatment for the urban poor and the urban rich. Although not ail such countries hâve oil income, virtually ail have profited from oïl economies at least second hand, and oil income has hastened the urbanization and income gaps, corruption, and visible wealth for the few that have made many responsive to the Islamists's call for equity, simplicity, and honesty. In addition, countries ripe for Islamism have experienced a longer and more radical break with an Islamically-oriented past government and society.

The Arab World and Oil : Power Undermined, by Monique Benisty The conflict over oil prices declared by Saudi Arabia at the beginning of the year 1986 has provoked what is now called an oil « backlash ». It represents the end of affluence for Middle Eastern countries. Under strict economie constraints, the licensing countries of the Gulf are now cutting ties with their partners. The other Arab countries in the region, deprived of their former foreign funds by the redistribution of revenue, are victims of the crisis. The reduction of transfers and immigrant problems have put a strain on islamic solidarity. Furthermore, the whole equilibrium of the région could be shaken by the probable consequences of the revenue collapse on the évolution of the Iran-Irak crisis.

The Fratricidal War in South Yemen : Gorbatchev's First Ordeal, by José Garçon Mikhail Gorbatchev's first crucial ordeal was marked by thirteen days of horribly murderous fighting in South Yemen during January 1986. In a country where democratie centralism has not erased tribal reflexes, the confrontations between two rival Marxist factions threate-ned to shake the foundation of the only Marxist republic in the world and to provoke a tribal break-up. The Soviets have made Aden into a window of oriental communism and although the strongest in the country, have been unable to avoid the flare-up. By only « managing » the crisis and reinforcing Us links with Aden, the Kremlin could merely impose a precarious peace. AU the seeds of the conflict are still présent ; the South Yemen civil war has provoked strong shock-waves in the Arab communist movement and among the « brother partys ».