Contenu du sommaire : Spécialisation internationale et crise

Positive adjustement policies in the European community Robert Maldague The sectoral changes were at the same time the driving power and the result of the strong and sustained economic growth after the IInd World War. Nowadays, they have reached a new dimension, but they corne up agaimt increasing restraints, of which f.i. the fact that the Western economies sink into the slow growth, certainly is not the least important. The first condition for the succes of the positive adjustement policy therefore is the adoption of a middle term economic strategy recreating, on the basis of a restoring of the competition power of the enterpris'es on the one hand and of a selective support of the demand on the other, the conditions for a more sustained growth and a recovery of the industrial investments. At the same time, it is essential to re-examen the orientation of certain horizontal policies and to put them more at the service of the industrial reorganization : amongst others the policies concerning the exchange rate, the taxation of the enterprises and the ways of financing the social security are concerned. As far as the specific policies are concerned, it is necessary : ― to strengthen the specific effectiveness of the principal instruments applied : the aid to R-D and the vocational training and retraining policy observe a special attention ; ― to improve the transparency, the co-ordination and the follow-up of these policies. The European Community itself should play a more active role in this positive adjustment process by spreading its action in those areas or sectors where the Community alone can create the necessary coherence frame and reduce the risks and wastings inherent to the isolated efforts of the member States.

Dynamics of specialization in European countries Gérard Lafay In the context of the world economic crisis, a strategic approach to international specialization in needed. Since 1970, the quality of specialization trends has been different between the european countries, and it explains variations in real exchange rates. In electronics, which will clearly determine the future of the third industriel revolution, and where the challenge cornes from Japan and the United States, Europe as a whole has not got a good position. In the next decade, the differences between the european nations may be Europe's weakness if economic politicien ignore the structural disparities and as a result hold back overall development ; they may be its strength if the Community uses it as a springboard for a cultural project, the basis for an ambitions research effort which will prepare for a common industrial policy.

National adjustments to international constraints : learning from a model Michel Aglietta, André Ojrléan, Gilles Oudiz During the seventies international monetary disorder and thé huge increuse inoil prices have widened the gap between the growth of R.E.C. countries. The ability of national economies to face these new international constraints has proved to be quite uneven. The crucial differences lie in the way manufacturin industries have reacted and been able to adapt themselves. In this paper the forces which determine the accumulation of capital in the medium term are analysed. The importance of the interaction between foreign trade prices, internal prices on the one hand and the quality of industrial specialization on the other hand, si stressed especially in so far as it explains how profits and investment in manufacturing industries depend on the relationships between these and the rest of the economy. The intensity of accumulation is then formalised through the relationships between productivity growth and investment or production growth. A semi-empirical simulation model, built along these theoretical lines, has been used to discuss the reactions of the French, German and English economies to exchange rate disturbancies. From these simulations follows a discussion of vicious and virtuous circles and the conditions, in term of structural parameters appearing in the models, under which such circles can take place. The conclusion of this paper emphasizes the real consequences of monetary constraints and the inadequacy of global macroeconomic policy, either monefarist or post-keynesian, to solve the competitivity problems which industrial countries have to face-supply-side, politics appear more and more necessary, while exchange rate management should be used as a powerful toolhsustain industrial transformations.

The international division of labour And the French economy : An approach through foreign direct investment Julien Savary The way foreign direct incestment develops, makes it more and more difficult to study international ind'wtrial specialization througli international exchange alone. On the other hand another approach becomes possible. Domination effects on foreign affiliates are created by the centralized organization of the multinational firms, and by their international task allocation, which is hierarchical. So foreign investment creates domination effects among countries. The balance between the foreign investment stocks of two countries then describes a balance of domination effects. This balance .shows the syecializations industry by industry. When applying these concepts to the French economy, its middle position on a world scale, and its specializations only in some basic products become apparent.

Pattern of structural change in trade in manufactured goods between industrial and developing countries Bela Balassa This paper examines the pattern of structural change in trade in manufactured good.v between the industrial and the developing countries. It reviews recent changes in this trade and analyses its commodity composition in the light of the comparative advantage of the two groups of countries. The paper further provides projections on the growth of manufactured trade between the industrial and the developing countries in the period 1978-1990. The results point to the increasing importance of the developing countries as markets for the manufactured exports of the industrial countries. It is further shown that, notwithstanding the protectionist measures applied by the industrial countries, the developing countries' exports of manufactured goods have grown rapidly and are expected to do so also in the future.