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Russia : a Eurasian Hegemony ?, by Gerhard Simon The collapse of the Soviet Union and Communist ideology has plunged Russia into a political and national identity crisis. Politically speaking, it must be noted that the end of Communism has not succeeded in convincing the majority of Russian voters of the need for rapid western-style democratization. On the contrary, a large part of the political class believe that the westernization of the political system would imply the abandon of Russian specificity and thus the loss of national identity. This, they believe, can only be maintained through present-day Russia keeping total faith with its centuries-old past, that of the Russian and Soviet empires. This explains why communists, ultranationalists and even many democrats seek to reestablish Russian hegemony over and beyond the territory of the ex-Soviet Union. Such a quest risks hindering the democratization of the Russian state and the consolidation of the nation.

The Russian Factor in Ukrainian Security Policy, by Olga Alexandrova The Centuries-old role of Russian imperial power, lost after the break-up of the USSR, remains the main preoccupation of the majority of Russian leaders. This is why they consider the 'defection' of Ukraine as unacceptable, a situation which must be remedied one way or another. There are also, especially in Central and Eastern Ukraine, political forces remaining from the former nomenklatura who hope to regain their previous political and social positions through rapprochement with Russia and who advocate 'reunification' with Moscow as the only means of overcoming present difficulties. Nevertheless the vast majority of political leaders of the young State perceive the increasingly clear Russian imperial inclinations as a direct menace to the Ukrainian nation.

Caucasia : the Return of Russia, by Stéphane Yérasimos After its eclipse in Caucasia in 1990 Russia succeeded, by the end of 1993, in engineering an almost complete return to power in the area as it had similarly done between the years 1918 and 1921. During both these periods Western as well as neighbouring powers thought that they could filt the void left by Russia. However Russia's neighbours were forced back by the way in which Russia took control of the problems involved in maintening order in such a turbulent and poorly accessible country they resigned themselves to leaving the role of policeman to Russia. Moreover, in both periods Moscow skilfully used regional interethnic conflicts to achieve its return to power.

The Foreign Policies of the Baltic States, by Riina Ruth Kionka During the initial post-Communist period, the foreign policies of the Baltic states were directea almost singularly toward enhancing security. Above ail, this meant normalizing relations with Russia and integrating into Western European structures. The Baltic efforts were complicated by an extremely fluid external environment — dominated by increasing chaos in Russia and evergreater uncertainty in the West over the shape of a post-Communist Europe — and by the need to institutionalize nationality policy at home. The primary results of this early phase of foreign policymaking were, paradoxically, a deepening of the security dilemma for the Baltic states vis-à-vis Russia as well as the decreasing relevance of the concept of « the Baltic states » as a politically useful category.

Paradoxes of Polish Foreign Policy, by Jan Zielonka Poland, just released from the Soviet grip, is finding it difficult to assert her new international position between integrated but inward-looking Western Europe, and disintegrated and unstable Eastern Europe. Despite Poland's successes in generating economie growth, consolidating democracy and reforming the military, Poland's major foreign policy objectives — membership of the EU and NATO — are still distant prospects. Poland's relations with her Eastern neighbours are better than at any time in modem history, but they are nevertheless being hampered hy régional rivalities, economie difficultes, ethnie conflicts and political chaos. The West can make a serious contribution to peace and stability in Poland's part of Europe by allowing the Visegrad group to join the EU before the year 2000 or earlier.

Hungarian Foreign Policy in the Context of Central Europe, by Mihály Fülöp The geopolitical situation of post-1989 Hungary raises questions concerning its security policy. The new inaependent Hungarian foreign policy, instigated by the Antall government, is based upon national interests. It aims to fully reestablish the country's own sovereignly, establish normal relations with all neighbouring states and improve relations with Western countries. With the projected pact for European stability Hungarian diplomacy will be able to give priority to two objectives : military and economic integration with the West and the protection of Hungarian minorities without ruining its regional policy.

The Serb-Croat Conflict and Break-up of Yugoslavia, by Predrag Simic The civil war in Yugoslavia is one of the most serious security threats in Europe after the end of the cold war. Basically, this conflict is the consequence of the long-lasting crisis and the dissolution of Yugoslav communism that made the unresolved ethnie, confessional, territorial and other disputes among the Yugoslav peoples escalate into an armed conflict. By its significance, the most important among them is the rivalry between the two most numerous South Slav nations — the Serbs and Croats — that marked the history of the common state since it was created in 1918. As the break-up of Yugoslavia coincided with the broad geopolitical changes in Europe, this crisis was quickly internationalized while the foreign actors sided with the conflicting parties following cultural similarities and common interests. The disappearance of Yugoslavia from the political map of Europe opened the process of geopolitical « remaking of the Balkans », that will most likely lead to its division along the confessional boundaries between Catholicism, Orthodoxy and Islam. This will turn the whole region into an area of permanent crisis and instability. The alternative to this would be a reestablishment of the Yugoslav or creation of a Balkan community and a graduai integration of the region into the European structures, but at this moment either local or international actors show no interests in achieving such solution.

The Uncertain Future of Croatia, by Christopher Cviic Recognized in 1992 by the International Community, after a bitter seven-month-long war against the combined forces of the Yugoslav National Army and Serb paramilitaries, Croatia has suffered substantial human and material damage, as well as the loss of one third of its territory. The economie situation of the country has been adversely affected by the arrival, in 1993, of refugees and continued shelling. Politically speaking, Franjo Trudjman faces harsh criticism. To become a viable democratie state based on the rule of law, Croatia needs change. Perhaps its future lies in becoming an important member of a new Central European grouping. However, a constructive rebuilding of the region within the framework of cooperation with the European Union depends upon the outcome of the conflict that is still going on in the former Yugoslavia and in Bosnia in particular.

Bosnia-Herzegovina : Situation and Perspectives, by Faïk Dizdarevic The Bosnian war is a direct resuit of the coming to power of totalitarian and expansionist forces in Serbia and Croatia and their agreement to share out Bosnia between them, a project supported by the Major Powers. Since 1992 events have shown that this sharing-out could only be achieved at the cost of huge losses in human life, unprecedented destruction, a catastrophic détérioration in the situation throughout the region and a direct challenge to the actual and future security of Europe. There are two possible outcomes. The first is the « definitive » dismembering of Bosnia which would only be possible through a long war with unforseeable conséquences for European construction. The second consists of the reconstruction of a unified, democratie, laie and centalized Bosnia in the context of a global regional seulement. This outeome only seems possible in the event of a democratization of Serbia and Croatia accompanied by a change in the strategy of the Major Powers.

A Crisis in the Making ? Macedonia and its Neighbours, by Duncan M. Perry Macedonian foreign policy is inextricably mixed up with internal political, économie and social problems which force it to search for international security guarantees. Macedonia thus follows a pragmatic foreign policy, aiming to protect its frontiers and to favour its economie prosperity. It seeks wider international recognition not only to increase its security but also to affirm its new existence as state and nation thereby reinforcing internai national cohesion. Finally however, Greek intransigence over its name, added to the UN embargo of rump Yugoslavia and internal ethnie tensions in Macedonia, could get the better of the new State.

The Albanian Question, by Hans Stark In the South of the Balkan Peninsula where it has long served as a buffer state between powers, Albania, the only European country with a Muslim majority, plays a central role in a dominantly Othodox and hostile environment. Albania's borders were drawn up (in the 1913 Treaty of London) according to geopolitical rather than ethnie criteria. With Albanians spread out over five states it seems unlikely that the simple désire of Ramiz Alia's government for integration will be sufficient to curb Albanese irredentism. Whilst the thorny question of Kosovo, Northern Epirus and minorities remain unanswered Albania's relations with its neighbours, especially Greece and Serbia, cannot be 'normalized'. In addition to being the poorest country in Europe, Albania has the highest birth rate in the Balkans and will, until these problems are solved, constitute an important factor of instability for the whole region.

Greece in the New Europe, by Yannis G. Valinakis The PASOK Governement takes over the presidency of the European Union at a moment that is crucial not only for European integration but also for Greece's régional role. Since it joined the EC in 1982, despite some periods of disagreement with the Twelve, Greece has never stopped affirming its European vocation. However its partners have not been able to overcome Greece's sensé of insecurity vis-à-vis Turkey (Greek defense policy is shaped by the Turkish threat) and the regional environment with the collapse of the Yugos-lav Federation, the war in Bosnia and the independence of the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM). Greece may reinforce its role as mediator in the region and overcome its state of tension regarding the new regional environment with support from the Twelve and security guarantees.

Economies and Geopolitics in Eastern Europe, by Ewa Kulesza-Mietkowski and Piotr Mietkowski The very different ways in which Central and East European countries have developed make it increasingly difficult to evaluate their respective chances of achieving the present « great transformation ». They certainly have in common a shared experience of communism and the new challenges brought about by the period of transition. However, it is highly important to take into account that the situation of each country is affected by such specifie factors as national history, recent choices in economie policy or geographical location. This article recognizes that there is no satisfactory System of « classifying » post-communist countries. Hence, it aims to present the way in which structural reforms have been implemented so far and to assess the economie results of 1993. At the same time, the link between economie change and the new geopolitical configurations emerging in the region has been analyzed.

Security : Europe Left to Its Own Devices, by François Heisbourg In post-cold War Europe, insecutrity is less a resuit of the reemergence of important national blocs, as it was the case in the period hefore 1914, as the process of fragmentation along exaggerated ethnie bases. Faced with these phenomena of countries looking inwards, there is a risk that Western European countries will be temptea to do likewise and follow divergent defence and security policies, a situation which could eventually lead to antagonistic behaviour. In these conditions the large multilateral instituitons inherited from the Cold War can most effectively enhance security by providing a legitimate framework for the promotion of the principles and logic that ivill enable the Western countries to avoid this temptation to withdraiv into themselves. The opening-up of trade and organic enlargement by the admittance of the new democraties will also help. The performance of these institutions and their member-states regarding the crisis in ex-Yugoslavia has been poor and urgently reinforces the need for a change of perspective so that the use of force in certain circumstances is a « proxima ratio » — an early recourse — rather than a last resort.

After Europe ?, by Dominique David 1993 bas broken clown to pieces every prospect on the future of Europe. The heavy uncertainties on Russian future, the Yugoslav disorder that is undermining ail European security institutions, the problems facing any progress on European Union, the emergence of a zone of constant instability in the Maghreb : ail these factors do not leave many chances of success to the construction of a United Europe, as planned four years ago. We have to undergo a complete review of our strategy knowing that a united European continent will probably remain a dream for a long time. In this period of transition, new objectives have to be set. We have to redefine our relationship to Russia, accept and organize the coexistence of multiple Europes, reinforce the Western European construction, and build up a coherent strategy toward the South.

Ostpolitik from Weimar to Berlin, by Daniel Vernet The Ostpolitik of Willy Brandt, his Social Democrat successors and the Christian Democrats at the Chancellery consisted in noting and reacting accordingly to the Socialist status quo in order to try and increase the margin of diplomatie manoeuvre available to Bonn. In the same way Konrad Adenauer policy of Western integration aimed to return international credibility to the Federal Republic of Germany. This position was radically différent to the policies of the Weimar Republic whose leaders never succeeded in choosing between a negotiated reform of the post-war order passed by prior agreement and a conflictual subversion of the Europe of Versailles. Once again, as a resuit of the disappearance of the Wall, Reunified Germany finds itself at the centre of Europe. Will it know how to retain its Western characteristics and orientation ?