Contenu du sommaire : États-Unis : l'empire incertain

The American midterms did not produce the expected results. The Republicans did indeed carry the majority of seats in the House of Representatives, but in a less clear-cut manner than predicted. The Democrats, on the other hand, retained their majority in the Senate. The 2024 election is now on the horizon. It is not impossible that between now and then we will see the fall of Donald Trump, and uncertainty surrounds Joe Biden's willingness to stand.

Donald Trump's presidency allowed the most radical wing of the Republicans to seize hold of the party. This means that the majority of Republicans in Congress endorse the theory of the stolen election of 2020, and approve more or less explicitly of the attack on the Capitol of January 6, 2021. Trumpism will outlast Trump as an individual. In its most extreme version, it constitutes a risk of terrorism, or even a risk of sliding into civil war.

The end of the unipolar era, with the rising strength of China and the failure of America's engagements abroad, is opening up a debate on grand strategy in the United States. What approach should it take now that the world is once again gripped by competition between powers? The discussion revolves around three major opposing schools of thought: “liberal order idealism”, “illiberal hegemony”, and “restraint”. The debate remains largely unresolved, as the country is only just starting the process of strategic adjustment.

American leaders—from Barack Obama to Joe Biden, via Donald Trump—consider the Indo-Pacific to be of paramount importance. This vast region is seen as the heart of world geopolitics in the twenty-first century. This involves not only facing China's ambitions, but also developing relationships with international heavyweights such as India and Japan. The American pivot toward the Indo-Pacific will not be called into question by the war in Ukraine.

The Ukrainian resistance should be seen in its long-term context, starting with independence in 1991, and confirmed by the events of 2014. The national opinion has consistently tended to be aligned with the EU, and then with NATO, leading the country to seek a complete separation from Russia, and most of all from its Soviet historical heritage. Accelerating processes that had already begun, Ukraine wants to end the war as a true European democracy.

The overwhelming majority of the Russian population, having been fed Kremlin propaganda for years, approves of the war in Ukraine. Critical and dissenting voices exist, but the possibility of severe punishment for dissent leads to their views being little expressed publicly. Faced with the hardening of the regime, many opponents and men who do not want to be conscripted have left Russia. They are considered traitors in their home country, but are not always warmly welcomed elsewhere.

The ceasefire that began on November 9, 2020 is fragile. Baku is fruitlessly seeking a political victory. The war in Ukraine and Russia's setbacks have complicated the situation in the South Caucasus. France and the United States, having been humiliated by Russo-Turkish mediation, have returned to the region with new ambitions. The region is a highly conflictual space, caught between the ambitions of Russia, Turkey, Iran, the European Union, the United States, China, and India.

Pakistan is facing a dual political crisis, against the backdrop of a catastrophic economic situation and a resurgence in violence. In Islamabad, the deposed Prime Minister Imran Khan complains of a plot hatched outside the country and hopes to take back power from his successor Shehbaz Sharif. In the outlying provinces, tensions are rising in Balochistan and in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. In 2023 there will be general elections: the coming year is full of risk.

At the end of 2018, the Sudanese people rose up against their rulers. This protest movement culminated in the removal of Omar al-Bashir in April 2019. A transition process did begin but cannot be brought to fruition, as civilian power has been unable to gain ascendancy over the military. The latter took back complete control of the country's institutions after a coup d'état in October 2021. Resistance committees continue to protest, while conservative forces are regaining power.

The proportion of the global population affected by hunger has grown since 2019, in particular in Africa. Central Africa has the highest levels of food insecurity in the world. Worsening poverty, the war in Ukraine's effects on exports of wheat and fertilizer to Africa, and the effects of climate change herald increasing problems. The international response must put the farming community back at the heart of change in Africa.

The chaotic retreat of the United States from Afghanistan in August 2021 might lead to an expectation of a lasting loss of influence in central Asia. The war in Ukraine has shuffled the deck: central Asian states have put distance between themselves and Moscow and are looking to diversify their international partnerships. Washington sees this as an opportunity for a resurgence in the region, which in particular is taking the form of renewed trade relationships in the security and energy sectors.

In their writings, Russian military elites agree on the dual objectives of the “special military operation”: controlling Ukraine and weakening an aggressive West that is waging a proxy war on Russia. They sometimes nevertheless criticize the political authorities on the opportunity of launching this military operation and for their concrete actions. The import and political consequences of these criticisms remain uncertain at this time.

The Russian aggression of February 2022 overturned the vision that Germany had created of its place in Europe and relationship to the world since 1989. A long tradition of relations with Moscow collapsed. The end of an era means everything must be reexamined: national and European defense measures, energy provision, and relationships with other partners such as China etc., all while reaffirming the necessity of a geopolitical Europe and the central nature of the North Atlantic Alliance.

The liberal international order, dominated by the United States since the end of the Cold War, is contested by China and Russia. There is a risk that geopolitical blocs will form around Washington on one side and Beijing on the other. In this context, transatlantic relationships must be strengthened, in particular in terms of their ideological component: essential values such as the respect of human rights and individual freedoms are threatened, and must be defended.