| Titre | A parallel course and a common fate? Demographic trends in the insular population of Greece, 1991-2018 | |
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| Auteur | Konstantinos N. Zafeiris, Georgios Kontogiannis | |
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Revue | Espace Populations Sociétés |
| Numéro | no 2024/2-3 Populations insulaires | |
| Rubrique / Thématique | I - Les dynamiques démographiques et de peuplement des îles |
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| Résumé |
La Grèce comprend de nombreuses îles habitées. Leurs populations présentent des caractéristiques culturelles, politiques, économiques et sociales d'une grande diversité : il n'y a pas une mais des identités insulaires en Grèce. Comment cette diversité se traduit-elle sur le plan démographique ? Peut-on mettre en évidence des profils démographiques distincts ou bien, en dépit de leurs particularités socio-culturelles, économiques et politiques et de leur taille démographique très variables, présentent-elles des caractéristiques démographiques suffisamment proches pour en faire un ensemble relativement homogène ? Et dans ce cas, celui-ci se distingue-t-il du profil continental ? C'est à ces questions que cet article est consacré. En effet, si de nombreuses recherches ont détaillé les particularités démographiques de certaines îles grecques, il n'existe à notre connaissance aucune analyse globale de la démographie insulaire en Grèce. Cet article a donc pour ambition de combler une lacune importante dans la littérature relative à la démographie de la population grecque.Après avoir utilisé plusieurs variables décrivant la structure de la population, les rythmes de changement démographique, la fécondité et la mortalité, chaque population insulaire a été comparée à la population nationale. Mais cet article ne se limite pas à une comparaison des conjonctures démographiques insulaires les plus récentes. Il propose également une analyse de l'évolution démographique des îles et du continent des trente dernières années (plus précisément la période 1991-2018 pour des raisons méthodologiques) afin d'identifier les éventuelles convergences et divergences au fil du temps. L'analyse de ces évolutions permet de documenter l'appréhension des perspectives démographiques de la Grèce continentale et insulaire, dans sa globalité et sa diversité, pour les prochaines décennies et ainsi donner les moyens aux pouvoirs publics de mettre en œuvre, sur des bases scientifiques, les politiques de population, notamment en matière d'immigration, les plus adaptées aux enjeux de demain. Source : Éditeur (via OpenEdition Journals) |
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| Résumé anglais |
Greece includes many inhabited islands. Their populations have exceptional cultural, political, economic and social characteristics. Within this environment, the research question in this paper relates to the recent demographic transition occurring in these areas to identify the existing diversity and possible convergences and divergences over time. After using several variables describing population structure, rhythms of population change, fertility and mortality, each insular population was compared with the national one. Results indicate some convergences between the populations studied, even though the majority of the insular populations remain distant from the national one. More specifically, there seems to be a ‘dividend' in the insular space in Greece. The southern parts are characterized by younger populations, i.e. Zakynthos in the Ionian islands, along with Cyclades, the Dodecanese and three out of four departments in Crete (Chania, Rethymni and Irakleio). These areas also exhibit relatively high Natural Increase Rates and some of these departments (Zakynthos and the Cretan departments) are characterized by relatively elevated Total Fertility Rates. Concerning mortality schemes, many insular departments exhibit higher life expectancies than the country level (due to dietary habits, lifestyle etc.). The highest male life expectancies are recorded in Cyclades and Kefalonia, while the highest female life expectancies are observed in Cyclades, Kefalonia, Lefkada, Samos and several departments in Crete. The role of migration and refugee schemes in the demographic developments, as well as the small population sizes, have received special attention in the present paper. Last but not least, it has been underlined that military and university campuses are crucial regarding the evolution of population structures in Greek islands.Another scope of the present paper, apart from presenting findings about Greece and its insular space, was to provide some ideas for future demographic research at country and departmental level in Greece. Demographic analysis at sub-national levels shall be avoided before 1991 due to the fact that De Facto and not Resident population sizes are recorded in the 1980-1990 period. COVID-19 has influenced marriage, fertility and mortality in the 2020-2022 period. Additionally, in the 2010s and the early 2020s it became evident that there are different sub-populations in the country with diverse fertility behaviours (most Greeks are having few children at elevated ages, while immigrants, refugees and other groups, e.g. Romani people are creating much larger families at lower ages). Finally, out-of wedlock fertility schemes are gradually changing since the mid-2000s, but at a very fast pace in the 2010s and mainly in the 2019-2022 period. The aforementioned developments at country level probably exhibit differences at sub-national levels. To reiterate, the population of Greece and some of its islands is ageing at a fast pace and shrinking since 2011. These tendencies will probably continue in the 2020s, the 2030s and the 2040s, unless significantly positive migration balances alter these trends and appropriate policy measures are employed. These policies have to be based on robust scientific findings about the history and prospects of the populations inhabiting Greece's mainland and insular space. Source : Éditeur (via OpenEdition Journals) |
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| Article en ligne | https://journals.openedition.org/eps/15203 |
