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East-West Commercial Relations and Prospects for Eastern Europe and Yugoslavia The main purpose of this paper is to give an overview of the current economic situation and prospects of Eastern Europe and Yugoslavia, focusing on the region's trade and financial relations with the Western countries. A secondary purpose is to comment the question : how successful were the experts in foreseeing such dramatic developments as the huge rise in Eastern Europe's foreign debt, rescheduling by some countries and the economic crises that have taken place in some countries in the early 1980s ? A perusal of the Joint Economic Committee volumes on Eastern Europe published in 1974 and 1977 and some other contemporary works suggests our record of forecasting is not a very good one.

Direct Investments by Multinational Corporations and Technological Change The paper presents an evidence that the three newly industrializing countries of Latin America, Argentina, Brazil and Mexico, have lately been reducing their historical lag in technology behind Eastern Europe. One reflection of this fact is the former's more successful penetration of western markets for manufactured goods, including electronic products. It is demonstrated the three Latin American countries have been closing their technological gap even though Eastern Europe outspends them in domestic research by a wide margin, and generates larger amounts of own-made technology as shown by the relative size of their foreign patenting. The advantage of the Latin Americans is that they import more of western technology, mostly due to their greater involvement in direct investment by western companies, a major vehicle for technology transfer in the world economy.

Oil and Gaz Incomes and the Soviet Balance of Payments The arms control spectacular in Geneva on January 7-8, 1985 has completely overshadowed more significant U.S.-Soviet negotiations held in Moscow during the same week, on January 8-9. These were the first formal trade talks between the two governments since 1978. What was not said then, but is clear by now to be the main thrust of the entire Soviet international economic policy, is their necessity to shift from Western Europe to the U.S. as the major source of trade and especially credits. Darkening prospects of further Western European credit financing of East- West trade are due to several factors : the Western agreement in 1982 to raise the interest rate on Soviet borrowing to the level of 12,15 %, the declining world oil prices and stagnating Soviet oil production and, more recently, the collapse of Soviet expectations with regard to the Siberian pipe line and natural gas exports to Western Europe.

Services in a Planned Economy : The Hungarian Example These days, no Hungarian economist or administrator would deny that the leveï of development and efficiency in the services has fallen below the level of general economic development, and that this constitutes one of the main obstacles to growth in the Hungarian economy. The economic recession which set in at the end of the 1970's left the decision- makers with an even graver dilemma : since the available national income was increasing more slowly (or indeed decreasing) by comparison with earlier periods, it became necessary to cut investment. The author first looks at economic policy, and the development of services, using the example of Hungary, which is not without its parallels in the other countries of Eastern Europe. He goes on to try to evaluate the costs of services in the national economy (current expenditure and capital expenditure) and shows that the « savings » made were achieved at the expense of the overall functioning of the economy. Finally, he reflects on the possibilities for development of services in the medium-term. He is of opinion that a more intensive development is not only desirable, but also makes economic sense, particularly because it helps to reduce current expenses, contributes to the efficient functioning of all sectors of the economy, is a characteristic of a modern economy, etc. He wonders if such development is possible while the planned rate of growth will vary between 1,5 and 3 %, while priority is given to reducing indebtedness, while enterprises are increasingly constrained by the centre's pressure for higher exports, and while the political necessity to maintain the standard of living limits the possibilities for investment. While considering that centralized funding may have a definite part to play in the development of the infrastructure, he does at the same time envisage entrusting current services to competing enterprises, so as to make the system more flexible and more speedily adjustable to requirements.

The Agricultural Foundation The press attaché of the « Agricultural Foundation for private Polish agriculture » breaks the reserve which has so far been maintained by the multi-disciplinary team which is attempting to gain official recognition of their charitable activities, and to strengthen the role of the Church in the transfer of technology from the West. Having first outlined the causes of the crisis in Poland, which he sees as the result of official down-grading of the importance of the private sector (family holdings account for 75 % of agricultural land), the author recapitulates the history of the Foundation, which, it should be noted, has not yet been officially recognized, though he does not mention the obstacles that still remain to be overcome. The second part of the essay discusses the possible solutions, and concludes that it will be necessary to change from aid « based on consumption » to « a more constructive form of aid ». Long-term investments can have a « multiplier effect » if used rationally by the farmers who will have to pay for the equipment in question. There is frequent reference to ideas such as « collective interest » and national unity, appeals for discussion and the legitimization of the market. Calls for an end to State monopoly, and the stress laid on the requirements of foreign benefactors, all show that the Foundation faces a major task.

Franco-Polish Relations After 1945 The author first makes the distinction between intergovernmental relations, and those obtaining between the two nations, and goes on to discuss the history of his relationship since the end of the war, distinguishing five periods marked by the cooling, or the resumption, of relations between the two states, the ties between the French and the Polish people having always been fairly strong and friendly. The period from 1945 to 1947 was characterized both by co-operation between governments and the traditional friendship between their peoples, consolidated during the war and the immediate post-war period. The years 1948 to 1954 saw a distinct deterioration in relations, with Poland unilaterally disowning the 1921/1939 treaty of alliance, and the start of an anti-French campaign in the media. The period from 1956 to 1965 brought a tentative renewal of Franco- Polish relations, linked with the « soft- pedalling » of the Cold War, the coming of de Gaulle to power, and the de-stalinization of Poland under Gomulka. The next period, 1965-1979, was one of real improvement in relations between the governments, the main events of which the author describes. Finally, the most recent period, 1980-1984, has been one in which France has shown a lively interest in the events in Poland, the emergence of Solidarity, then its « disappearance » after the establishment of martial law, an event strongly condemned in France by government and people alike. The French have rallied in support of the Poles, the authorities periodically express regret at the way the regim in Poland has developed, while the Polish government organizes anti-French campaigns, and Franco-Polish relations have reached their lowest point since the war. There are some signs of improvement, but so far it is impossible to express any opinion as to the turn Franco- Polish relations will take. There are the two appendices which help the reader to form some idea of relations between the two countries during the war (Report by Ambassador Morawski, 22nd December 1943) and in 1984 (extracts from statements by General Jaruzelski and other leaders).

Rumania's Contribution to Bulgarian Indépendance The author recalls a little known passage of Central and East European history, at a time when certain countries ? Bulgaria in the present instance ? were living under Turkish rule, and thought only of liberation. Rumania first lent assistance by sheltering Bulgarian writers and combatants, and then the nobility and the army hastened to provide military support. Rumania fought as an ally of the Tsar and the Russian empire, but the alliance proved and unequal one. Despite Rumania's courageous and successful stand alongside the Bulgarians, she was already a victim of Russian expansionism, and thereby lost part of her territory.

Procedures and Criteria Used in the Selection of Cadres in the Lower-level Organizations of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union An integral part of what the Soviet authorities call « cadre policy », the choice of personnel for the lower-level organizations of the CPSU, is made through elections which are neither « free » nor « competitive », but strictly regulated by superior bodies. A study of the methods employed by these higher authorities in order to impose their choice of personnel, and of the criteria which govern these choices, reveals a highly organized selection procedure, based mainly on the competence of the potential cadres. In fact, where these lower-level organizations are concerned, it seems, at the present time anyway, that the concern for some degree of representativeness among those nominated to office is considerably outweighed by the desire to select educated and competent cadres who may eventually be called upon to make their way upward in the Party and/or administrative hierarchy.