Contenu du sommaire

The Economic Consequences of German Reunification: A few exploratory scenarios, by Jean-Philippe Cotis, Sabine Schimel. Some of the consequences of German reunification will be favourable for France and her European partners and others will be less so. This study proffers a number of possible scenarios, giving a precise description of the parameters characterizing each of them. Analyzing the most plausible developments suggests not only a moderate rise in France's growth rate entailing no excessive inflationist pressure, but also a sustainable rebalance of the functioning of the EMS, in a broader sense. These conclusions have been drawn on the basis of simulations founded in a theoretical framework and using macro-economic models. To determine how the German economy is likely to develop, we have placed particular emphasis on the role of pressure on supply which could affect price formation or alter the breakdown domestic and foreign manufacturers' market shares on the domestic market.

Oil crises and Industry: Recent Contributions of Production Econometry, by Jean-Guy Devezeaux de Lavergne. The purpose of this paper is to supply planners with a comparative summary of the findings of recent reports on energy demand, by focussing on the French industrial sector using a basically neo-classical approach and by determining the impact an increase in crude oil prices could have on both productivity and energy demand. One of the more noteworthy findings of this survey is that an oil crisis on the same scale as the crises experienced in the past would have a lesser effect now than was the case following the 1973 and 1979 crises.

The Slump in World Activity and the Oil Crisis : Adjustments the French Economy Must Make, by Mireille Assouline, Anne Epaulard, Patrick Fève and Marc Vielle. The marked slowdown in the growth of Western economies stemming from the recent Gulf Crisis and the uncertainty over oil prices leads us to believe there will be a new recessionary phase in world economy. The analysis made using the Hermès-France model aims not only to quantify the impact of these external factors on the French economy, but also to assess the consequences possible changes in the behaviour of the economic agents could have under such circumstances, the immediate result being that higher costs would raise prices and that firms would expect a slowdown in activity and modify their salary scales accordingly. Various adjustment policies, (including lower social contributions for employers and budgetary cutbacks) are also to be expected in the event we are faced with a large-scale external crisis.

Individual determinants of unemployment durations, by Liliane Bonnal, Denis Fougère. From a statistical standpoint, this paper analyzes the effects of individual characteristics on average unemployment durations and the types of duration with competing risks. The results show that time-profiles of specific hazard rates or exit rates from unemployment depend on the destination state [the two options basically being: finding a job, and being removed from the ANPE (National Agency for Employment) lists for not checking in]. Furthermore, the individual factors determining these rates differ from one destination state to another. Variables which influence the instantaneous probability to be hired are demographic (sex, age, citizenship, marital status) and socio-economic (education, job qualifications, socio-professional categories) individual characteristics.

Age at First-Home Ownership: an Application of Duration Data Analysis to the Study of First-Home Ownership, by Olivier Guillot. In this paper, age at first home ownership is analyzed on the basis of retrospective data collected on the second sample group (surveyed in 1986) of households in Lorraine, describing the housing careers of 893 French heads of households. Duration data analysis is the methodology that was adopted. First the life-span table method is used to describe the phenomenon; this descriptive (or non-parametric) analysis reveals that the probability of becoming a homeowner is highest around age 35. The effects of demo-economic variables on the age for first-home ownership are then evaluated using an accelerated hazard model.