Contenu du sommaire : Migrations en Afrique : un regard neuf

There are multiple causes for displaced populations in Africa and they are not new, whether these displacements are within countries, across the continent, or towards Europe. The term “migrations” covers diverse situations with internal and international implications. Factors that contribute to movements have to be closely analyzed. The problem's complexity cannot be dealt with simply through border control or by externalizing the problem, as the European Union seems inclined to do.

Reference to Article 13 of the Cotonou Agreement – a paragraph of which deals with readmission cooperation – has become increasingly recurrent in discussions between Europeans and members of the ACP Group around the question of migration. Bilateral experience has shown that readmission is of central importance, but this sensitive issue remains marginalized compared with other strategic possibilities. The implications of this seeming contradiction have to be deciphered.

The Kampala Convention on the protection of displaced persons marks significant progress for Africa where conflicts, weather disasters, and economic initiatives have increased population displacement in recent years. Its implementation by the 25 States to have ratified the Convention is proving complex since it necessitates amendments to domestic law. The monitoring system put in place by the Convention is likely to be inadequate to ensure its application.

During apartheid, the South African regime kept stringent control over migration through bilateral agreements with other southern African countries. Economic migrants in particular were directed towards mining and agricultural areas. Today, migrations are more fluid and diverse but migrants are now confronted with a precarious employment market as well as many forms of discrimination.

Are we returning to “The German Question”, which we thought had been dealt with at unification? Although “The German Question” has deep historical roots, its return is indicative of a European crisis: economic fractures, institutions in deadlock, relative withdrawal of France and the UK on serious Union debates. Only through increased European integration can we expect Germany to regain to a place which it can occupy comfortably.

As a dominant economic power in Europe, Germany is optimistic about its future but is confronted with a world that is making more demands on it that it would like to meet. Germany has opened its doors to refugees and migrants in Europe, and supports France in its battle against IS, but it is reticent to engage on the international scene in any other capacity than as a civil power, serving the law. Can the country accomplish its dream of becoming a big Switzerland ?

Since 2013, Al-Qaeda and Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant have been waging an insidious war. This conflict thrives on ideological, strategic and personal opposition. Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi's proclamation of the caliphate has created a favorable climate for IS, which has managed to attract many young people. In the short term, reconciliation between the two jihadist organizations is unlikely, but a change of leadership could open up new possibilities.

The war in Syria has tended to overspill into neighboring States. Lebanon is especially affected, notably because of the Syrian regime's active support of Hezbollah. The jihadist movement is developing here and the Islamic State's anti-Shiite strategy holds particular resonance. In Jordan too, Islamic State is winning over more and more young people. The Hashemite regime is keeping a close eye on the Salafist movement, but it wouldn't be surprising if Amman were to become a terrorist target.

The Kurdish military's recent history immediately brings to mind images of its mythical female fighters, and of its real victories against Daesh. But its successes have been primarily in Syria. In Iraq, the Kurdish military has been hindered by poor preparation, lack of effective weaponry, and various political and tactical disagreements between actors. Without support from the West, Kurdish forces will not be able to win the on-ground offensive.

The British Prime Minister has announced that a referendum will be held to decide whether the UK will remain in the European Union. David Cameron's announcement has prompted analysis of the risks it would pose for the balance among UK political parties, for British cohesion, and for the future of the European project. In England, the rise of euroscepticism and nationalist sentiment is real. The possibility of a Brexit should not be ignored.

The Russian Armed Forces performance in Ukraine and Syria surprised many Western observers, demonstrating that they have significantly regained power since the conflicts in Chechnya and Georgia. The Russian arms industry is modernizing and the Armed Forces are professionalizing. However, the country's economic situation means that the country has to make some choices and renounce certain options; Russia's military power has to be considered in context.

Following the AKP's decisive victory in the legislative elections of November 1, 2015, Turkey seems to have entered a phase of political stability. The opposition, having been well and truly defeated, seems incapable seriously challenging President Erdogan and his party's dominance. But behind this apparent stability there are deep social and political fractures, as well as issues surrounding identity. They are destabilizing Turkish society and could prevent it from overcoming the numerous challenges it is currently facing.

France too wants to execute its own strategic “pivot” towards Asia. In line with a vision promoting Franco-Chinese bilateralism, visits and agreements are increasing, but French involvement in the region remains limited. In the commercial sector, France's market shares are low and its military choices scarcely allow Paris significant presence. This pivot will only take shape when a clear lines are drawn and new means are assigned.