Contenu du sommaire

Getting the Timing Right in Poland's Transformation, by Georges Mink The Polish « miracle », as A. Michnik calls it, or « mystery », the term favoured by C. Milosz, has surprised us once again. Against ail logic, an entire nation is giving full support to a government policy which has lowered the standard of living 20 per cent, created unemployment for several hundreds of thousands, and intensified the pace of working life. Unlike other former satellites of the USSR, the présent government enjoys a comfortably stable political climate for the implementation of an economie transformation which has been in operation since 1st January 1990. But this situation has only come about after long and painful years of trial and error. The present consensus and period of grace will not last for ever, and the governmental momentum may not be adequate to prevent perils emerging. The government's policies which are neither genuinely evolutionary nor entirely revolutionary may lead to both achievement and danger.

Hungary : From Reform to Transformation, by Pierre Kende This article, which was written before the élections of 25th March, 1990, analyses the reasons for failure of the reform of communism in Hungary, which actually opened the way for the radical transformation of institutions. Though it was carried out gradually and almost with consensus, there has been a complete rupture with the communist system and the surprising seeming disappearance of the former ruling party in Autumn 1989. After analysing the principal forces of change, the article presents the four major groupings which now dominate the political landscape.

The Nation Lost and Found. From GDR to Germany, by Anne-Marie Le Gloannec The inter-German time upsets diplomatie calendars. The GDR exists no more because it never existed : there was no free and independent state but interpenetration of two societies or rather an unequal exchange. Though the influence of the FRG in the GDR was stronger, West German society did not remain entirely without some Eastern influence. Therefore the reunified Germany will not be merely a big Federal Republic. Though the fall of communist regimes and the reunification of the two Germanies bring more security to Germany and Europe, they also lead Bonn and West Berlin — and later Berlin — into economie and political turbulence. Will Germany be able to stand by its pledges to the outside world ?

Czechoslovakia : the Soft Revolution, by Jacques Rupnik After more than 20 years of « normalization » in Czechoslovakia, everybody — and the opposition circles first and foremost — has been surprised by the strength of the popular uprising of November 1989. External factors created a favourable environment for the destabilization of the Party, but did not directly affect the «10 days that shook Czechoslovakia ». Though Gorbachev played a less primordial part than is often thought in the West, the Central European environment played on the other hand a destabilizing part. As in Est Germany, societal pressure compelled the regime to retreat. In the immediate future, the new government faces urgent issues : how could the diplomatie apparatus shaped by forty years of communist power be changed ? How could amateurism and improvisation be avoided among the new elites ? How could the Slovak enigma be solved ?

The Rumanian Enigma, by Georges Ayache At its outset, Rumania's revolution received unanimous acclaim but now mises many doubts. The post-Ceausescu era is as fraught with difficulties as some had predicted. An almost total political vacuum exists in spite of the flowering of political groups. The ingrained reflexes of 40 years'communism still persist. But to a large extent, the current malaise stems from the methods adopted by the provisional executive, as well as the ambiguity about its objectives. This brought a succession of crises, and required the executive to broaden its membership.

Bulgaria — The Last Satellite, by Eugène Silianoff The Bulgarian communist party, one of the best organised in Europe, retains its strong ties to the USSR. It is unique in still wielding power after the eviction of Todor Jivkov, who was deposed by a palace revolution, after a reign of 35 years. Although they appeared much later than in other countries of the bloc, opposition groups and associations sprouted vigorously in 1988- 1989. There are now about forty of these, including the traditional parties which have been resuscitated. Thirteen principal opposition groups form the Union for Democracy. All of these will participate in the elections to be held next June. It is risky to make forecasts, but a large coalition may wrest power from the communist party, with whom no opposition group wishes to collaborate.

Albania : No Change in Sight, except..., by Thomas Schreiber The upheavals in East European states have not passed unnoticed in Albania, the last Stalinist country of the continent. Officially there is no question of liberalising the regime, but nevertheless a certain easing of political rigidity is perceptible. The rulers do seem willing to implement certain reforms and in the field of foreign policy, Tirana is showing a new openness, Albania no longer wishes to remain isolated and internal change seem inévitable.

Reflections on French Defence Policy, by François Heisbourg The revolution of 1989 has dealt a new set of strategie cards. In spite of future uncertainties, military aspects of East West confrontation will no longer be the principal basis of the European system. Future defence will become a variable dependent upon security lato sensu. In this context, France should review the bases of its defence policy, i. e. cost levels, ideology, deployment of forces and choice of programmes. Broad, cool headed discussion of these questions is necessary if France wishes to avoid the risk of having to act without due préparation. Without such a debate, it will be difficult to create a new defence consensus to meet the demand of a new era.

The US-Japan Alliance Towards the Year 2000, by René Servoise By a far a reaching coincidence the economie disputes and the technological rivalries between the US and Japan are growing (exaggerated by the public debate) at the very moment the Soviet's threat is perceived as receeding. What are the strengths and the weaknesses of this alliance which has made possible the Pacific basin success-story ? If the interdependence of the two economies is real, so are the cultural differences of the two people and the perception of their national interests. Is it a collusion or a collision course between the still most important economy of the world and the most aggressive economie machinery ?