Contenu du sommaire

High-Quality Products but Low Profîtability : Why Japanese Investors Are Increasingly Rejecting This Time-Honored Formula, by Richard C. Koo The recent crash of the Tokyo stock market and financial deregulation since the mid-1980s have increased competition among fund-managers. Higher competition is forcing many of them, who have been quiet and stable shareholders of Japanese corporations for decades, to demand higher profits and dividends for the first time. Since the problem of low profîtability is pervasive at ail levels of production from small subcontractors to large world-famous corporations, the need to increase profits by raising prices at each of these levels could reduce the competitiveness of Japanese products. Spearheaded by banks, however, Japanese corporations are finally beginning to reconsider their market-share mentality in favor of a strategy emphasizing higher profîtability.

Japanese Economy in Transition ? Prospects and Implications for the World Economy, by Jean-Pierre Lehmann The spectacular growth of the Japanese economy during the years of the « bubble economy », in the course of which the net increase in the Japanese GNP was the equivalent of the total GNP of France, will not be repeated in this décade. Japan is currently facing an economie crisis. However, following the years of economie overheating and the « unorthodox » behaviour and wild speculation of both individuals and corporations, the crisis will have a « cleansing » effect. What we will see soon is a return to business as usual... « Japanese-style ». The structures, the strategies, especially in the areas of globalization and technological innovation, and the Japanese spirit of capitalism remain fundamentally robust. The Japanese challenge, therefore, will remain a prominent feature of the world economy. European responses to this challenge are complex, but they must be approached with lucidity and dignity.

Japan and South-East Asia, a New Partnership, by Sophie Boisseau du Rocher Over the last 40 years, Tokyo has created a network of commercial, financial and political ties that closely associates it with the future of liberal Southeast Asia. This plurality of influences raise issues concerning the political implications of Japan s economie power. Japan and Southeast Asia are evolving in increasingly subtle ways, from a relation of dependence to a relation of partnership. Japan, in order to assert itself as a political/global power, may eventually rely on the support of the ASEAN countries. Could this situation lead to the development of an economie block under japanese control, capable of rivalizing both with the European and North American markets ?

East Asia : the New Strategie Landscape, by Gerald Segal Now that the overlay of the cold war is being lifted from East Asia, the states of the region face tough choices about their future security arrangements. Although the perceived threat was usually fuzzier and less worrying in East Asia thon in Europe, the démise of the Soviet Union and its ideology has melted the glue that held non-communist East Asians together. The risks grow that the United States will retreat militarily from the région and leave the locals to sort out their own disputes. With their increasing and long-standing disputes, there is the making of major arms races or even hot conflict in the region. The absence of multilateralism in security in East Asia is a major problem, which, if rectified, might help reduce the risks of conflict.

Dangerous Asian Peace, by Olivier Camy The collapse of communism in Asia has generated a peace process. At the same time, the Far Eastern countries have adhered to the model of economie growth of the « Dragons » (South Korea, Taiwan, Hong-Kong, and Singapore) and the new « tigers » (Malaysia, Thailand, and to a lesser extent, Indonesia). Confucian values guide and are the foundation of the new democratie Systems, combining moderate authoritarianism and a conception of human rights based on the stability of societies and the regimes which represent them. The Chinese — in South China and the diaspora — appear to be the major vector of this movement due to their economie influence in the région. Will the limit of China's action be Japan, the Asian power whose success is envied by everyone while its arrogance is rejected ? Will Japan be able to accept the challenge that will gradually be presented by the Chinese ? Is peace in Asia not a foreboding of new dangers ?

Development and Democracy in Southeast Asia, by Jean-Louis Margolin The new vulgate views democraticization as the nearly inevitable consequence of economie development and sees the middle classes as the deciding factor in political change. This overlooks the very general — and very explainable — coincidence between the initial phase of development and a reinforcement of authoritarianism. It exaggerates the dynamic which later works to the benefit of democracy. It completely ignores the great autonomy of politics in relation to economics : the specific configuration of Southeast Asia explains why authoritarianism holds out well. Finally, it underestimates the true, farreaching effect of the democratic plan.

Indochina : the New Frontiers, by Christian Lechervy The end of the third war in Indochina, and the collapse of communism in Europe, has killed the political concept of Indochina. Even though Vietnam remains fossilized in its mandarin Stalinism, it progressively reintegrates itself in the region. The « Asiatization » of its economy is becoming reality, pending the end of the American embargo. The multipolarization of the régional strategie game, however, has resulted in exacerbating économie rivalries and showing the ambitions of communist China. Thus little by little, the maritime daims in the China South Sea instrumentalize the inter-regional relationships in their dimensions of economie and military power.

Korea : Is the Cold War Over ?, by François Godement The division of Korea occurred before the Cold War and has outlived it. With the complete withdrawal of Russia front North Korea and China's récognition of South Korea, for the first tinte since the turn of the century the Koreans hâve the opportunity to solve themselves the problems in their penninsula. Some external opposition to the fall of the North Korean regime still lingers in Beijing, however, and only an entente with Japan can enable the latter to consider without fear the émergence of a unified Korea. In the meantime, the Séoul government is taking steps to ensure an acceptable, peaceful transition through Kim Il-Sung's heirs.

Outside Constraint and Endogenous Logics of Crisis : the Example of Latin America, by Jacques Adda Now that real growth seems to be resuming in the greater part of Latin America, an assessment of the internai and external causes which provoked the régional crisis in the beginning of the 80's and hindered its development for the entire décade is essential. The article spécifies the exogenous determinants, both conjunctural and structural, and the internai responsibilities in the build-up of the crisis and its possible resolution. It insists on the role of the loosening of outside constraint in the recent return of activity and on the necessity of a consolidation of institutions and means of state intervention in the stimulation of the processes of development.

History Endlessly Repeated, by Marc Bonnefous « The End of History », as Francis Fukuyama sees it, has been the subject of many analyses. Deliberately critical, theses analyses strive to reflect on diverse thèmes which are generally left in limbo. Do the signs to which Francis Fukuyama is attached easily find place in our conceptual universe that is marked by Roman, Greek, and Semitic legacy ? Doesn't he give democracy a simplistic notion by considering it as a panacea ? In the end, doesn't he think about a new order where the rules of the game would establish a moral and intellectual conformism dictated by the dominant nations of today ? Would « reconnaissance », his key word, be only one more alienation ?