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The Rise of the Chinese Economy in Asia, by François Godement After decades of relative self sufficiency punctuated by abortive bouts of expansion, China has become more significant as an international trader. The advance has been greatest in Asia due mainly to the interaction with Japan, but in Korea and Taiwan further expansion is threatened by the Chinese deficit. China has compensated in part for this imbalance through expanding commerce with « external China » (Hong-Kong and Singapore) and with the countries of ASEAN. The Chinese are building up a regional niche for themselves in this way, and occupy an intermediate position in the international division of labour. In future, China must be able to compete with its newly industrialise neighbours on world markets in order to finance the capital equipment imports needed for modernisation and to satisfy the growing expectations of Chinese consumers.

Soviet Strategy and Its Limitations in Afghanistan, by Olivier Roy In the short term, Soviet intervention in Afghanistan can be viewed as a reaction to the collapse of a neighbouring communist regime, but in the long term it must be seen rather as an expansionary pus h towards warm-water ports. The USSR's ultimate goal is the integration of Afghanistan within the Soviet world, though the implementation of this strategy is very flexible. The Soviets seek to maintain the war within limits compatible with their other priorities. They are reluctant to raise the present level of intervention, preferring to rely on their present three pronged policy, which consists of military force to contain rebel strongholds, a pacification programme aimed at disarming the country-side, and a slow but steady sovietisation of the towns. However, the steady reinforcement of Afghan résistance présents them with a difficult set of choices. They must either strengthen their expeditionary force, use chemical weapons, destabilise Pakistan or negotiate. Should Président Reagan propose to negotiate on regional conflicts, it is feasible that the Soviets would embark on negotiations on Afghanistan. Their sole aim would of course be American and Pakistani withdrawal front participation in the conflict, as it is improbable they would seriously envisage pulling out their troops even in exchange for a genuine neutralisation of Afghanisation.

The Cambodian Kaléidoscope, by Richard Sola After Norodom Sihanouk was imposed as King of Cambodia by France, he quickly proved himself a clever negotiator as well as an often cruel autocrat. But he was also a demagogue who adopted socialist rhetoric and was caught in the wave of communism which spread from Indochina and eventually brought his downfall. He was deposed in 1970 and since then has unceasingly sought vengeance against Lon Nol and the United States, who did not understand the difficulties of his non-alignment. To this end, he did not hesitate to play China's game by allying himself with the « Khmers Rouges » whom he had earlier driven out. He was their prisoner from 1975-1978 and was saved by the Chinese when his former allies, the Vietnamese invaded. Under the présent circumstances in Cambodia, could Sihanouk still be useful as a symbol or has he betrayed too often ?

The Outlook for ASEAN, by Jean-Pierre Gomane The ASEAN countries are now experiencing something of a crisis which may perhaps only be growing pains. French business men and politicians are at last taking a more systematic and less detached interest in this region of the world. The overall rhythm of its growth is slowing down considerably as the region could not expect to escape indefinitely front world recession, given the open nature of its économies. Economie woes are not the only problems in question, but they aggravate the uncertainties of the international conjuncture. For this reason, it has become urgent to diagnose the outlook for ASEAN.

Australia, New Zealand and the Crisis in the South Pacific, by Hervé Coutau-Bégarie Since the Vietnam war, the Australian and New Zealand defence efforts have concentrated on protection of their own territory rather than taking forward positions. They have nevertheless continued to maintain a presence in South East Asia within the context of ASEAN, and have played a protective role in the South Pacific. However the change in New Zealand policy on nuclear weapons has created a grave crisis within ANZUS and opened a breach in Western defence.

The Dismemberment of French Foreign Policy : A Major Problem, by Bernard Adrien The excessive presidentialisation of foreign policy and the disorderly proliferation of agencies with a finger in this domain have had unfortunate consequences. There has been a loss of professionalism, administrative ineffeciency, incohérence in policy, and excessive spending by competing bureaucracies which hâve sometimes pursued con-tradictory initiatives. There is an urgent need to put these affairs of state in order, and to give the Ministry of Foreign Affairs the legal and financial powers to fulfil its role of coordinating and managing a cohérent foreign policy.