Contenu du sommaire

The Effectiveness of Military Power, by Martin VAN CREVELD Twelve years after the publication of The Transformation of War — French edition, Le Futur de la guerre — it is time to re-examine its basic arguments. Two outstanding facts emerge. First, the fact that we are in the midst of a historical shift from interstate conventional conflict towards what différent people call low intensity war, non-trinitarian war, or asymmetric war, has been amply borne out and has, indeed, become the subject of a vast literature. Second, people have not yet corne around to re-examine the other main premise of the book, namely the need to re-examine Clausewitz and to come up with a new theory of war more suitable to the times in which we live. Still, sound practice can only be based on sound theory. At the beginning of the third millenium, we are still trying to wage war on the basis of theories first formulated two hundred years ago under completely different circum-stances, for a completely different kind of war. It is high time that this problem be remedied. Or, else, those who put their heads in the sand will end up by being kicked in the ass.

Asymmetric Warfare and the Future of the West, by Steven METZ Asymmetric warfare is an old phenomenon, but has varied in strategie significance over time. Because the chances of war between major powers is low today, asymmetric conflict has again become important. Today truly is an era of strategie asymmetry. In the realm of military affairs and national security, asymmetry is acting, organising, and thinking differently than an opponent in order to maximise strengths, minimise weaknesses, attain the initiative, or gain freedom of action. It has many different forms and dimensions. Unlike many historic instances of asymmetric conflict, today it is a deliberate choice selected by those weak in conventional military power. It is shaped and driven by the bi-polarity and interconnectedness of the current global security system. Today two forms of asymmetry pose the greatest challenge for Western states: the use of terrorism by non state enemies, and protracted insurgency or internal conflict in weak states. To meet this challenge, Western militaries must revise their organisations and operational concepts to meet the complex challenges of non state terrorism ana protracted internal war.

Command of the Commons: The Military Foundation of US Hegemony, by Barry R. POSEN The United States controls alone, at the present time, the shared "spaces" of sea, sky and space. This mastery, which is made possible by its huge economie power, is the basis for its military hegemony. This allows it to project its capabilities throughout the world and prevents any adversary from doing likewise. It also guarantees a high degree of security to the air and sea ways - used by all states - which means that many countries consider that the hegemony of the US is also in their interests, particularly economie ones. But this domination, as global as it is, is not total. There are some areas in which it can be competed with, and the last ten years have shown that a lesser adversary in technical, economie and military terms can rival the U.S., either in street or mountain fighting, air defence below 15 000 feet, or with terrorism.

Considering a Non-Conventional Iraqi Opponent, by David BARAN The debate on Iraqi war capabilities, initiated month's ago by the American threats against Iraq, totally ignores the non-military, non-tangible assets of Saddam Hussein in a war that might not have much to do with conventional warfare and classic theory. This article will hopefully contribute to the debate in three ways. First of all, it develops a historical outline of the Iraqi military and security apparatus, so as to define precisely its various organs and illus-trate the expériences and concepts that determined its current doctrine. Secondly, it will concentrate on the adaptability displayed by the Iraqi regime in the face of the specifie American threats during the nineties. This adaptability is seen as a prolongation of the impressive plasticity demonstrated by the regime throughout the aforementioned historical process. Last of all, this article implies an atypical but non-the-less plausible war scenario, based precisely on a better attention paid, paradoxically, to Saddam Hussein's non-military resources.

The Iranian Foreign Policy: From the Révolution to the "Axis of Evil", by Farhad KHOSROKHAVAR After the revolution, the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs was marginalized. With Iran-Iraq war of the 1980s, became a new era during which the oil revenues were crucial. Besides the United States, the other industrial countries were customers of Iran, and this entailed foreign policies that should not endanger the oil extraction and selling in the international market. The death of Khomeyni opened up a new period in Iranian foreign policies, but the actual policy shift took place with Khatami: Arab countries were courted and the suspicion of Iranian hegemony overcame in the region. The relationship between Iran, Seoudi Arabia and the other countries, with the exception of Iraq, knew a notable warming up, and the 9/11 terrorist attack pushed Iran and Seoudi Arabia towards a closer co-operation. Fearing a US intervention in Iran after Iraq, the Iranian Conservatives are more and more tempted to end up the Reformists' power in order to talk directly with Washington. Iran power's dual structure is in an acute crisis, partially due to internal factors and to the recent mutations in international relations. Iranian foreign policy has to be considered as a situation where the Reformists' grip is challenged by new actors like Rafsandjani, whose influence cannot be measured up by his own position within the state but by his political influence after September 11.

Turkey: A Regional Power or a Fortress under Siege?, by Hamit BOZARSLAN The attitude of Turkey, one of the closest allies of the United States in the Middle East, has been highly ambiguous throughout the Iraqi crisis. Obviously, Ankara does not have enough resources to oppose Washington's decisions. Its policy, however, is determined by a set of factors and constraints, among them the legacy of the Ottoman Empire and the fear of emergence of a viable Kurdish entity. Moreover, some sections among the military and civil establishment are quite reluctant towards the United States, which are accused to aim at the destruction of the "nation-states". The declaration of general Tuncer Kilinç, secretary general of the powerful National Security Council, underlining the necessity of a radical switch in the Turkish foreign policy and a strategie alliance with Russia and Iran against the West, is a significant proof of internal tensions inside the Turkish establishment. Ultimately, Ankara will be obliged to accept some kind of co-operation with the US during the Iraqi crisis. It seems however also be convinced that the establishment of a pro-American administration in Iraq will depreciate its "strategie value" in the Middle East.

Maghreb States and the Berber Demand, Maxime AIT KAKI For some thirty years, the Berber movement has been gaining ground in the Maghreb. It has moved beyond the national framework to become both a transnational and international phenomenon in the whole of North Africa. Its radicalisation over the past few years, particularly in Algeria, goes hand in hand with efforts of the powers that be to recover the situation — for example in Morocco - and the organising of the Berber diaspora, in France in particular. The case of Kabylie, which is on the verge of breaking with the Algerian central state and has discovered new cohésion and strength in traditional institutions (the archs), does not make it impossible to picture, in the long run, an upheaval of the status quo within Maghreb, in which twenty million Berbers reside. The Berber question puts several crucial choices in front of the North African states - i.e. identity, culture, and democratie legitimacy - on which the future of the region depends.

African Elite and the United States Diplomacy of Intelligence, by Jean-Philippe DEDIEU French immigration policies together with a failed African higher éducation System have led French-speaking researchers to emigrate to an unprecedented destination, considering the language barrier: the United States. Their arrival is facilitated by an external policy led by philanthropie institutions wishing to create scientific communities uniting both American and African researchers and an internal policy contributing to the progressive American supremacy on African studies. This strategy undermines to the profit of the US the perpétuation in Africa of the French influence.

ASEAN's "Marginalisation": Is its Future in a Greater East Asia?, by Eric TEO CHU CHEOW The Association of Southeast Asia Nations (ASEAN) is at a crossroad of its history. The 1997 economie crisis has weakened its oldest state members, making more difficult the integration of the new ones. Post September 11 United States policy and the focus put on the fight against terrorism, and more specifically on Islamic terrorism, have given birth to new divides in countries where a process of religious and community radicalisation was already engaged. Facing these new challenges, governments have often preferred national solutions instead of regional co-operation, and bilateral problems have emerged between ASEAN state members. For the sake of regional peace and stability, it is now time for the Association to bridge its current divides through a renewed policy of integration. But in the present context of a rising China, a transforming Japan, an uncertain Korean peninsula and numerous problems in Northeast Asia, the ASEAN needs the full cooperation of the three main Asian powers if it wants to have a chance of building the "ASEAN + 3" framework that is called to be the foundation of a future enlarged Eastern Asian community.

North-South Confrontation at the UNO: A Fading Anachronism?, by David M. MALONE In its early days, the United Nations System was polarised between East and West. As de-colonisation proceeded, a second chasm emerged within the organisation — along North-South lines. The North-South divide continues to afflict much of the UN's intergovernmental System, mostly the UN General Assembly, its Economie and Social Council (ECOSOC) and a number of its functional commissions and executive boards. This article argues that the North-South fault-line has had a negative impact on the work of the organisation, impeding action on many substantive issues, sometimes putting the relevance of the organisation in question. Recently, however, there is evidence of a relaxation in tensions along the North-South divide, possibly further encouraged by reactions to the September 11 terrorist attacks.

Mitterrand, Europe and German Reunification, by Daniel VERNET In the autumn of 1989, did François Mitterrand want to block, brake or accompany German reunification? A German political scientist, Thilo Schabert, has just put out a book which proposes to correct the "myth" of a French President who was reserved, even hostile, on the subject of German unity. By relying on interviews that were conducted in the Elysée Palace in 1995 and on previously inaccessible French archives, he supports the view that François Mitterrand's overwhelming preoccupation was to link the "German question" to progress in European integration. The Germans, for their part, published some years ago Chancellery archives that showed, on the contrary, a lukewarm French President on reunification and which painted Chancellor Helmut Kohl as a great European. Comparing these sources and applying a critical examination to French and German documents leads to a more nuanced appreciation of links between the two statesments and between the two states at a crucial time in their common history. This article follows several leads.