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The Stratégie and Political Environment of the South Pacific, by François Godement The author has attempted to analyse intentions on the one hand, and antagonisms on the other, which corne into play in the changing strategie situation of the South Pacific. In spite of the fact that no changes involving actual military action have taken place in the region, the following factors which alter the strategie environment must be taken into account, i.e. the wave of protest against French nuclear testing ; the showing of Soviet hand in the region, confirmed by Mikhail Gorbachev' Vladivostok speech ; the New Zealand government's attitude to matters of defence ; and finally the cracks in the ANZUS pact (which was founded in 1951 by Australia, New Zealand and the United States). The volatility of the situation is perhaps the greatest obstacle facing French policy makers in the South Pacific, and the French presence is being continually undermined by the two crises of New Caledonia and the confrontation surrounding Mururoa. A happy outcome for French presence in the region can only come about if France succeeds in breaking the « holy alliance » at present ranged against it. But France must make the effort to resolve these crises through its own initiative and not rely on the international situation to do so.

The Political, Economie and Stratégie Stakes at Play in the South Pacific, by Georges Ordonnaud The scale of France's involvement in the South Pacific will dépend upon whether it is looked on as a foreign European Power or as a next-door-neighbour. It is a region in which the two superpowers are active and Australia, Japan and China as well as many s mail states have their interests. The best way for France to retain a pre-eminent position among the nations of this zone, would be by initiating and guiding joint policy of cooperation and responsibility in all fields. But France must succeed in being accepted as neighbour and natural ally rather than considered as European intruder with colonialist and militarist designs. Only then could France prevail on the nations of the South Pacific to exercise the restraint and patience necessary for the implementation of such treaty, which is none-the-less of great importance to them, unless they were to accept nuclear umbrella.

Australia's Reactions to Nuclear Testing and the French Présence in New Caledonia, by Xavier Pons For Australia, there are two causes of irritation arising front French présence in the Pacific. One is nuclear testing in Polynesia and the other the « colonial » status of New Caledonia. Its strong protests against French tests are not so much because of any actual inconvenience caused to Australia, but rather with a view to gaining favour with independent states of the région and thus promoting its status as a regional power. It is with similar motives that Australia supports the independence movement in New Caledonia. However, it is prevented from defining a cohérent antinuclear policy by the importance it attaches to its alliance with the United States.

The Case of New Zealand, by Ariel Kerros There are many who have noticed a significant difference between the anti-nuclear movement growing in New Zealand from those of Western Europe and the United States. It seems that the gut reaction of fear engendered by forecasts of nuclear holocaust has been exploited for électoral purposes. Similarly, the militants campaigning against atomic testing are not perhaps without ulterior motive considering that the role of « leader » in this region has not yet been filled. Unless New Zealand makes up its mind to leave the Western bloc and remain indiffèrent to destabilisation of the Western defence System, it would appear to be mounting a dangerous horse at a time when the Soviet Union is manifesting new interest in the South Pacific. For, to use a médical analogy, « kiwi fever » might well prove to be a very contagious disease.

A French Policy for the South Pacific, by Clément Meunier France must define a policy towards the South Pacific. Without compromising its sovereignty or national security, it must work through dialogue and active concrète coopération towards removing the prejudice and misunderstanding, which it faces in this région. If the nations of this area can be persuaded to work together with France, it can contribute towards their development efforts, and towards insuring their independence whilst fully respecting their political, economie and social Systems. It could also be helpful in alerting and rallying its Western partners with similar strategie interests, to the need for concerted effort to preserve stability in the South Pacific. There is urgent need to hait the économie deterioration of these nations which is the gravest danger menacing the region, and is a challenge no-one can face alone.

ASEAN and the Zone of Peace, Freedom and Neutrality in South East Asia, by Jusuf Wanandi ASEAN was founded 20 years ago with the aim of creating a peaceful, stable and prosperous région in South East Asia, through cooperation in economie, social and cultural fields. In 1971 came the idea of creating Zone of Peace, Freedom and Neutrality (ZOPFAN) in South East Asia. Its four aims were as follows : to create a stable, peaceful climate for the political and economic development of its member states ; to foster good relations amongst its members ; to establish relations with other countries of the region ; and to obtain acceptance from the major powers for a ZOPFAN in South East Asia. Though the first two objectives have been achieved, the last two have so far been impeded by other events in the region. However, the existence of the ZOPFAN can still be valid if the principal countries in the region still wish to maintain balanced relations with each other over the long term. A lot will depend on the Third Summit of ASEAN to be held Manila in December 1987.